Yahoo Finance report covering Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why CMG Stock advanced +1.95% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is CMG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼
As of 2026-11-02, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $31.89 (+1.95% 1D, market cap $39.58B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CMG ranks #162 in composite RQD confidence.
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does CMG compare to YUM and QSR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
▼
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), CMG carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 25.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 30.2%. By comparison, YUM (Yum! Brands Inc.) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 27.1x, ROIC 60.3%, cap $42.18B) and QSR (Restaurant Brands International Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 30.9x, ROIC 12.6%, cap $33.18B). Among the 5-stock peer group, YUMC leads on earnings multiple (16.7x) while YUM leads on capital efficiency (60.3% ROIC).
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CMG?
▼
Per CMG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001058090), Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. generated $11.93B in revenue (+5.4% YoY), $1.54B in net income, and $1.45B in free cash flow against $8.99B in total assets and $2.77B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 12.1% FCF Margin ($1.45B FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
Altman Z-Score 6.02 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9
Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (53.1) create a -13 pt regime headwind
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CMG Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, CMG faces multiple-compression risk if 25.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($32.83) or 200D SMA ($33.97) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($33.47) toward Bear Floor ($26.11).
Why CMG Stock advanced +1.95% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) advanced +1.95% to $31.89, trading at 32% of its 52-week range ($27.31 – $41.42). Solid steady margins (30% return on capital), mixed timing at 26x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 32% of its 52-week range ($27.31 – $41.42) with RSI-14 at 53.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±9% around $31.89 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $1.4B annual free cash flow.
CNBC report covering Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investing.com report covering Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
CNN report covering Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Starbucks, Wingstop and Chipotle are adding tech roles and introducing tools for better customer insights, forecasting and in-kitchen efficiencies.
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (CMG Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
CMG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +5.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CMG today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CMG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CMG)
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (CMG vs. YUM, QSR, DRI, YUMC)
Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) ranks #162 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #55 by equity capitalization ($39.58B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, YUMC leads on earnings valuation at 16.7x trailing P/E, while YUM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 60.3% ROIC and 69.8% gross margin. YUM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with CMG at 69/100 (C+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMG
ACTIVE
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. | C+ | 69/100 | 25.8x | — | 30.2% | +1.95% | $39.58B | Benchmark Subject |
| YUM Yum! Brands Inc. | B | 74/100 | 27.1x | 69.8% | 60.3% | +0.55% | $42.18B | /yum-vs-cmg → |
| QSR Restaurant Brands International Inc. | D | 50/100 | 30.9x | — | 12.6% | -0.82% | $33.18B | /qsr-vs-cmg → |
| DRI Darden Restaurants Inc. | C | 64/100 | 20.7x | 20.3% | 19.5% | -0.14% | $24.95B | /dri-vs-cmg → |
| YUMC Yum China Holdings Inc. | B- | 71/100 | 16.7x | — | 14.9% | +1.28% | $15.48B | /yumc-vs-cmg → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001058090In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) reported GAAP revenue of $11.93B (+5.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $11.31B , and +20.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.54B, operating cash flow of $2.11B, and free cash flow of $1.45B (-4.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, CMG closed FY2025 with $8.99B in total assets against $2.77B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.02, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $11.93B | $1.54B | $2.11B | $1.45B | $8.99B | $2.77B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $11.31B | $1.53B | $2.11B | $1.51B | $9.20B | $2.50B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $9.87B | $1.23B | $1.78B | $1.34B | $21.77B | $5.09B |
3. CMG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs CMG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-02, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $31.89 (+1.95% 1D, market cap $39.58B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CMG ranks #162 in composite RQD confidence.
How does CMG compare to YUM and QSR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), CMG carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 25.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 30.2%. By comparison, YUM (Yum! Brands Inc.) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 27.1x, ROIC 60.3%, cap $42.18B) and QSR (Restaurant Brands International Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 30.9x, ROIC 12.6%, cap $33.18B). Among the 5-stock peer group, YUMC leads on earnings multiple (16.7x) while YUM leads on capital efficiency (60.3% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CMG?
Per CMG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001058090), Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. generated $11.93B in revenue (+5.4% YoY), $1.54B in net income, and $1.45B in free cash flow against $8.99B in total assets and $2.77B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is CMG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
CMG last traded at $31.89 (+1.95% on volume of 24,391,133 shares), positioning the stock -2.86% below its 50-day simple moving average ($32.83) and -6.12% below its 200-day simple moving average ($33.97). Across its 52-week range of $27.31 to $41.42, CMG sits at the 32.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.0% ($29.02 to $34.76).
CMG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is CMG stock moving today?
Why CMG Stock advanced +1.95% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (30% return on capital), mixed timing at 26x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
CMG — Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Per the Roarable RQD rating, CMG scores 69 out of 100, a C+ grade, with the verdict "Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout." The five pillars are:
- Fundamental Cash Engine: 18 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 30.2% and an FCF yield of 3.66%. Strong capital efficiency is the largest contributor to the score, but the 3.66% FCF yield means the market is pricing the cash stream at a relatively high multiple.
- Whale 13F Flow: 10 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. The moderate score indicates institutional support that is not conclusively directional.
- Insider Conviction: 16 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. This is a relatively supportive reading.
- Macro Regime Fit: 7 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects a beta of 0.99 and sector sensitivity. This is the weakest pillar and suggests the stock tracks broad market conditions closely without a distinct macro tailwind.
- Forensic Balance Sheet: 18 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects an Altman Z-Score of 6.02, a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.91. This is a strong balance-sheet read.
For a prospective investor, the composite points to a stock with high-quality fundamentals and a strong forensic profile, offset by a weak macro-regime fit and moderate institutional flow. Upside drivers in the data are the cash-generation efficiency and balance-sheet strength. The valuation tradeoff is visible in the market data: a P/E (TTM) of 25.8 and EV/EBITDA of 16.7 against a 3.66% FCF yield means much of the quality is already reflected in the price. The "Watch for Breakout" label implies the rating treats the stock as a candidate for re-rating only if flow and macro conditions improve, not as an immediate buy signal.
Snapshot
Business
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Restaurants industry, per the company profile. Per the profile, the company operates in the restaurant industry with a market capitalization of $39.6B. Not available in source data for product detail, customer segments, or specific revenue-generation model beyond the sector and industry classification.
Financial Trend
| Period | Revenue | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS | FCF | Cash | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $11925.6M | $1935.8M | $1536.0M | N/A | $1447.6M | $350.5M | $2773.8M |
| FY 2024 | $11313.9M | $1916.3M | $1534.0M | N/A | $1511.5M | $748.5M | $2497.0M |
| FY 2023 | $9871.6M | $1557.8M | $1229.0M | N/A | $1339.3M | N/A | $5094.2M |
Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $9871.6M in FY 2023 to $11925.6M in FY 2025, while net income moved from $1229.0M to $1536.0M. Per the market data, operating margin is 16.2%, net margin is 12.9%, and gross margin is reported as 0%, which should be treated as a data artifact rather than a substantive reading. Per the RQD rating and forensic data, the Altman Z-Score is 6.02, the Piotroski F-Score is 9/9, and ROIC is 30.2%. Debt declined from $5094.2M in FY 2023 to $2773.8M in FY 2025 while cash fell from $748.5M in FY 2024 to $350.5M in FY 2025. Per the RQD rating, Debt/Equity is 0.91.
Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis
Per the news feed, the most recent headline reports that CMG shares rose 7% after the CEO said same-store sales growth will continue (CNBC, tagged as a GREEN catalyst). Other items flagged the expansion of Chipotlane locations and a headline questioning whether the stock is fully priced following that expansion (Yahoo Finance, YELLOW). Several items reported the stock sliding or dipping more than the broader market on the same day (Investing.com and Yahoo Finance, YELLOW). A CNN quote-and-forecast item and a Yahoo Finance three-year valuation piece are also included as market-wire items. Per the news feed, the price change in market data is 8.88%, and volume is 42,481,889. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply_chain field is NONE, there are no butterfly links, and there are no proprietary signals. Risk watch items drawn from the headlines are the mixed same-day price reaction and the valuation question raised by the fully-priced headline.
Open Questions
- What are the underlying SEC Form 4 and 13F transactions that drive the insider (16/20) and whale-flow (10/20) pillar scores?
- What is the consensus analyst rating and price-target range, given that the analyst data section is empty?
- What is the reported EPS for FY 2025, FY 2024, and FY 2023, since the financials list EPS as N/A for every period?
- Why is the gross margin reported as 0%, and what is the correct gross margin figure?
- What explains the cash decline from $748.5M in FY 2024 to $350.5M in FY 2025 alongside the debt increase from $2497.0M to $2773.8M?
CMG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Yahoo Finance report covering Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
CNBC report covering Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investing.com report covering Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
CNN report covering Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
CMG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $31.89?
🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is CMG (C+ • RQD 69/100) a Buy at $31.28?
Welcome to the CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 69/100 (Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout) in Restaurants. Bulls point to capital efficiency (30.2% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
Pump the brakes on CMG — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on CMG, but look at what you are paying: 25.8x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
CMG cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on CMG, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Restaurants and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $31.28 (52-wk range $27.31 - $41.42), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.