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Cipher Digital Inc. (CIFR) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$6.86 -5.90% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.77

Cipher Digital Inc. (CIFR) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 29/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $3.32B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CIFR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Cipher Digital Inc. (NASDAQ: CIFR) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $6.86 (-5.90% 1D, market cap $3.32B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, CIFR ranks #1028 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CIFR compare to GBDC and PFSI in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), CIFR carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -11.5%. By comparison, GBDC (Golub Capital BDC Inc.) holds a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E 8.8x, ROIC 9.6%, cap $3.30B) and PFSI (PennyMac Financial Services Inc.) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E 6.7x, ROIC 11.6%, cap $3.27B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SLM leads on earnings multiple (4.5x) while PFSI leads on capital efficiency (11.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CIFR?
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Per CIFR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001819989), Cipher Digital Inc. generated $223.9M in revenue (+48.0% YoY), -$822.2M in net income, and -$695.9M in free cash flow against $4.29B in total assets and $2.71B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.77 (-1.25%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (29/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510029
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (6)Whales (6)SEC (8)Macro (3)CEO (6)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.1% Base Target
$32 Bull$6 Base$5 Bear
📬 FREE CIFR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CIFR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (29/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CIFR SCORES 29/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+6/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 63.7% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (29.1) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
37
Grade E$9.94-8.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
34
Grade E$9.13-2.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
32
Grade E$8.87-22.7% Next Q
Current
29
Grade E$6.86-9.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (37) → E (29)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CIFR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CIFR currently carries a cautious 29/100 (E) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($13.69) and Max Pain ($7.20) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $31.65.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CIFR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CIFR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 29%NO 71%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±12.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (CIFR)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for CIFR.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CIFR)

  • ✓Walkthrough of CIFR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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CIFR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -61.65%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-03O $8.10H $8.10L $6.86C $6.86VOL 56.62M
RES: $14.52SUP: $7.53SMA50: $13.69SMA200: $17.59
$31.77$25.02$18.27$11.52$4.76RES $14.52SUP $7.53$6.862026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CIFR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CIFR Butterfly Map → + Track CIFR →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
16.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +48.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CIFR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CIFR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CIFR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CIFR)

Financials Rank #1028 of 1097 ⚔️ GBDC vs CIFR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (CIFR vs. GBDC, PFSI, SLM, GPGI)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Cipher Digital Inc. (CIFR) ranks #1028 by composite RQD confidence (29/100, grade E) and #338 by equity capitalization ($3.32B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SLM leads on earnings valuation at 4.5x trailing P/E, while PFSI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.6% ROIC and — gross margin. PFSI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 43/100 (D-) compared with CIFR at 29/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CIFR ACTIVE
Cipher Digital Inc.
E 29/100 — — -11.5% -5.90% $3.32B Benchmark Subject
GBDC
Golub Capital BDC Inc.
D- 40/100 8.8x — 9.6% +1.34% $3.30B /gbdc-vs-cifr →
PFSI
PennyMac Financial Services Inc.
D- 43/100 6.7x — 11.6% +3.81% $3.27B /pfsi-vs-cifr →
SLM
SLM Corporation
D- 37/100 4.5x — 7.4% +0.45% $3.25B /slm-vs-cifr →
GPGI
GPGI Inc. (Class A)
E 21/100 — — -6.5% +4.92% $3.24B /gpgi-vs-cifr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001819989 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Cipher Digital Inc. (CIFR) reported GAAP revenue of $223.9M (+48.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $151.3M , and +76.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$822.2M, operating cash flow of -$207.9M, and free cash flow of -$695.9M (-206.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, CIFR closed FY2025 with $4.29B in total assets against $2.71B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $223.9M -$822.2M -$207.9M -$695.9M $4.29B $2.71B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $151.3M -$44.6M -$87.5M -$227.0M $855.4M $0
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $126.8M -$25.8M -$94.2M -$99.9M $2.03B $475.1M

3. CIFR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CIFR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Cipher Digital Inc. (NASDAQ: CIFR) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $6.86 (-5.90% 1D, market cap $3.32B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, CIFR ranks #1028 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CIFR compare to GBDC and PFSI in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), CIFR carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -11.5%. By comparison, GBDC (Golub Capital BDC Inc.) holds a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E 8.8x, ROIC 9.6%, cap $3.30B) and PFSI (PennyMac Financial Services Inc.) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E 6.7x, ROIC 11.6%, cap $3.27B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SLM leads on earnings multiple (4.5x) while PFSI leads on capital efficiency (11.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CIFR?

Per CIFR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001819989), Cipher Digital Inc. generated $223.9M in revenue (+48.0% YoY), -$822.2M in net income, and -$695.9M in free cash flow against $4.29B in total assets and $2.71B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CIFR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CIFR last traded at $6.86 (-5.90% on volume of 55,429,681 shares), positioning the stock -49.89% below its 50-day simple moving average ($13.69) and -61.00% below its 200-day simple moving average ($17.59). Across its 52-week range of $6.93 to $30.14, CIFR sits at the 0.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 29.1 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($6.00 to $7.72).

Direct Sub-Reports: CIFR RQD Cockpit CIFR 12M Forecast CIFR Earnings & Move CIFR Dividends & DRIP CIFR Insiders & 13F CIFR Whale Options CIFR Profit Sankey CIFR News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 29/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CIFR — Cipher Digital Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Cipher Digital Inc. (CIFR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 29/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $6.86 (-5.90% 1D, market capitalization $3.32B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -11.5%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of -18.00%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (6/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (3/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 0.92x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Cipher Digital Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Financials sector and the Finance: Consumer Services industry..7B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Cipher Digital Inc. (CIFR) reported $223.9M in annual revenue (up from $151.3M in FY2024, +48.0% YoY) and -$822.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($126.8M revenue, -$25.8M net income) through FY2025, CIFR scaled operating cash flow to -$207.9M and free cash flow to -$695.9M, backed by $4.29B in total assets against $2.71B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 29/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -18.00% and institutional whale pillar of 6/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 6/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $6.93 – $30.14 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 0.92x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies cannot be mapped from the provided data. — The sector classification (Financials; Finance: Consumer Services) and the Beta of 0.92 are the only sector-level inputs available. The second-order risk visible in the data is financing-driven: the convertible note offering and share exchange referenced in the news feed bear on dilution and debt service, and the rise in reported debt to $2.71B is a balance sheet bottleneck an investor would need to track.

  • Key Question #1: Can CIFR sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -11.5% ROIC against Finance: Consumer Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $223.9M and free cash flow of -$695.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $2.71B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is CIFR's 23.0x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.92x)?

CIFR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Cipher Digital Inc. (CIFR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CIFR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CIFR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $6.86?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CIFR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CIFR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $9.04 (+24.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The stock's Forward P/E of 23 and Beta of 0.92 suggest the market is pricing in earnings recovery at a moderate, below-market-volatilit

Here is why I am bullish on CIFR here at $7.29: The stock's Forward P/E of 23 and Beta of 0.92 suggest the market is pricing in earnings recovery at a moderate, below-market-volatility profile.. Compare CIFR's -60.0% operating margin and -11.5% ROIC against the rest of Finance: Consumer Services. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $6.93 are getting bought.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — CIFR's 8/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $6.20 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $7.29

Negative free cash flow in every period, a debt load that rose to $2.71B, and an $850M convertible note offering point to financing-d

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short CIFR above $7.29. Negative free cash flow in every period, a debt load that rose to $2.71B, and an $850M convertible note offering point to financing-driven dilution risk.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20) and FCF yield (-18.0%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $30.14.

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