CATALYSTBenzinga • 13d ago
Jefferies Upgrades Chagee Holdings to Buy, Raises Price Target to $14.9Jefferies analyst Lisa Liao upgrades Chagee Holdings (NASDAQ:CHA) from Hold to Buy and raises the price target from $11.8 to $14.9.
Why CHA Stock surged +5.06% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$12.66 +5.06% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.81
Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 76/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 85% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.
ROARABLE B+ • BUY
Cap $2.30B
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Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CHA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
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Is CHA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Chagee Holdings Limited (NASDAQ: CHA) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 76/100 at a spot price of $12.66 (+5.06% 1D, market cap $2.30B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CHA ranks #56 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does CHA compare to SHAK and CBRL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), CHA carries a Roarable B+ (76/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, SHAK (Shake Shack Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 60.7x, ROIC 6.8%, cap $3.02B) and CBRL (Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 34.9x, ROIC 5.4%, cap $1.57B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARCO leads on earnings multiple (6.9x) while CHA leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CHA?
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Per CHA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002013649), Chagee Holdings Limited generated $1.85B in revenue, $167.5M in net income, and $175.5M in free cash flow against $1.64B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.81 (+1.15%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 9.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 76/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 11% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk B+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+8.1% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CHA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (76/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CHA SCORES 76/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (24% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 9.5% FCF Margin ($175.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (22% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-10 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade B-$12.52-0.3% Next Q
68
Q2 (-2Q)Grade B$12.48-1.8% Next Q
71
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B$12.25+3.3% Next Q
73
CurrentGrade B+$12.66+7.6% Hist 90D α
76
Trajectory: B- (68) → B+ (76)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CHA Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 76/100 (B+) score, CHA faces multiple-compression risk if 13.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($11.82) or 200D SMA ($11.13) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($13.69) toward Bear Floor ($10.38).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CHA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CHA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why CHA Stock surged +5.06% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) surged +5.06% to $12.66, trading at 49% of its 52-week range ($8.98 – $16.56). High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 85% return on capital) with steady institutional support.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 49% of its 52-week range ($8.98 – $16.56) with RSI-14 at 50.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.8% around $12.66 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable B+ (Buy) backed by 52% gross margin and $175.5M annual free cash flow.
Live CHA Headlines & Catalysts
CATALYSTYahoo • 19d ago
Can Keurig Dr Pepper's Planned 2027 Split Drive Long-Term Value?KDP's planned 2027 split aims to unlock long-term value through focused growth, debt reduction and $400 million in coffee cost synergies.
CATALYSTYahoo • 20d ago
Can Primo Brands' Purified Water Sales Accelerate Further?PRMB is driving retail growth through rising purified water sales, premium brand gains and distribution expansion, while targeting underpenetrated cold consumption opportunities.
CATALYSTYahoo Finance • 25d ago
Primo Brands' Spring Water Sales Increase 4.1%: What's Driving Growth?PRMB's regional spring water sales rise 4.1% as broad retail growth, share gains and brand building support expansion opportunities.
CATALYSTYahoo Finance • 33d ago
Can Primo Brands' 30.5% Premium Water Growth Sustain Momentum?PRMB's premium portfolio increases 30.5% as Saratoga and Mountain Valley gain share, with distribution and capacity supporting further growth.
MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 39d ago
Chagee Holdings (CHA) Unveils Golden Chamomile And Spiced Ceylon Seasonal DrinksChagee Holdings (NasdaqGS:CHA) has released two new seasonal drinks, including the Golden Chamomile fruit chamomile collection. The seasonal lineup now features a caffeine free chamomile series aimed at consumers seeking
MARKET WIRESponsored ADR (CHA) Could Surge 28.15%: Read This Before Placing a Bet • 41d ago
Wall Street Analysts Think Chagee Holdings LimitedThe average of price targets set by Wall Street analysts indicates a potential upside of 28.2% in Chagee Holdings Limited - Sponsored ADR (CHA). While the effectiveness of this highly sought-after metric is questionable,
MARKET WIRESponsored ADR (CHA)'s Technical Outlook is Bright After Key Golden Cross • 45d ago
Chagee Holdings LimitedGood things could be on the horizon when a stock experiences a golden cross event. How should investors react?
MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 59d ago
Chagee’s (CHA) Overseas Boom Masks A Bruising Home Market FightOn August 28, Chagee Holdings Limited (NASDAQ:CHA) reported second-quarter results that read like two different companies stitched together. At home in Greater China, gross merchandise value slipped and franchised teahou
MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 66d ago
Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares Q2 2026 Earnings Call SummaryMoby summary of Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares's Q2 2026 earnings call
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (CHA Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
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CHA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +13.85%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $12.02H $12.66L $12.02C $12.66VOL 922.7K
RES: $13.26SUP: $11.47SMA50: $11.82SMA200: $11.13
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
CHA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
5.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CHA today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CHA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CHA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CHA)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #56 of 1011
⚔️ SHAK vs CHA Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (CHA vs. SHAK, CBRL, ARCO, WEN)
Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) ranks #56 by composite RQD confidence (76/100, grade B+) and #399 by equity capitalization ($2.30B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARCO leads on earnings valuation at 6.9x trailing P/E, while CHA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. CHA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 76/100 (B+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHA
ACTIVE
Chagee Holdings Limited | B+ | 76/100 | 13.7x | — | 85.0% | +5.06% | $2.30B | Benchmark Subject |
| SHAK Shake Shack Inc. | D | 48/100 | 60.7x | — | 6.8% | +2.81% | $3.02B | /shak-vs-cha → |
| CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc | B- | 70/100 | 34.9x | 69.0% | 5.4% | -0.43% | $1.57B | /cbrl-vs-cha → |
| ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) | D | 48/100 | 6.9x | 96.0% | 18.9% | +0.59% | $1.42B | /arco-vs-cha → |
| WEN Wendy's Company | D | 49/100 | 8.3x | 63.6% | 10.7% | +0.69% | $1.37B | /wen-vs-cha → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002013649In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) reported GAAP revenue of $1.85B , GAAP net income of $167.5M, operating cash flow of $235.1M, and free cash flow of $175.5M . On the balance sheet, CHA closed FY2025 with $1.64B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.09, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $1.85B | $167.5M | $235.1M | $175.5M | $1.64B | — |
3. CHA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs CHA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, Chagee Holdings Limited (NASDAQ: CHA) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 76/100 at a spot price of $12.66 (+5.06% 1D, market cap $2.30B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CHA ranks #56 in composite RQD confidence.
How does CHA compare to SHAK and CBRL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), CHA carries a Roarable B+ (76/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, SHAK (Shake Shack Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 60.7x, ROIC 6.8%, cap $3.02B) and CBRL (Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 34.9x, ROIC 5.4%, cap $1.57B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARCO leads on earnings multiple (6.9x) while CHA leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CHA?
Per CHA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002013649), Chagee Holdings Limited generated $1.85B in revenue, $167.5M in net income, and $175.5M in free cash flow against $1.64B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is CHA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
CHA last traded at $12.66 (+5.06% on volume of 784,328 shares), positioning the stock +7.11% above its 50-day simple moving average ($11.82) and +13.75% above its 200-day simple moving average ($11.13). Across its 52-week range of $8.98 to $16.56, CHA sits at the 48.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.8% ($11.67 to $13.65).
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 76/100 (B+)
✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED
CHA — Chagee Holdings Limited: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31
1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 76/100, corresponding to a B+ letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $12.66 (+5.06% 1D, market capitalization $2.30B).
- Fundamental Cash Engine (18/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 85.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 10.4%, and free cash flow yield of 7.65%.
- Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
- Macro Regime Fit (15/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (17/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 5.09, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.
2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory
Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) is listed on NASDAQ and classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Restaurants industry..3B. —: product lines, customer base, and specific revenue-generation mechanics.
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) reported $1.85B in annual revenue and $167.5M in GAAP net income. Operating cash flow reached $235.1M and free cash flow totaled $175.5M, backed by $1.64B in total assets against $0 in total debt.
3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff
- 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B+ • RQD 76/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 18/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $8.98 – $16.56 52-week range.
- 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 13.7x trailing P/E and 5.0x EV/EBITDA against 10.4% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.
4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch
Operating in Restaurants (Consumer Discretionary), CHA carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.
- Key Question #1: Can CHA sustain or expand its 10.4% operating margin and 85.0% ROIC against Restaurants peers over the next 4 quarters?
- Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.85B and free cash flow of $175.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
- Key Question #3: How sensitive is CHA's 12.7x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?
CHA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
🟢 CATALYST Benzinga • 13d ago
Jefferies Upgrades Chagee Holdings to Buy, Raises Price Target to $14.9 Jefferies analyst Lisa Liao upgrades Chagee Holdings (NASDAQ:CHA) from Hold to Buy and raises the price target from $11.8 to $14.9.
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 19d ago
Can Keurig Dr Pepper's Planned 2027 Split Drive Long-Term Value? KDP's planned 2027 split aims to unlock long-term value through focused growth, debt reduction and $400 million in coffee cost synergies.
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 20d ago
Can Primo Brands' Purified Water Sales Accelerate Further? PRMB is driving retail growth through rising purified water sales, premium brand gains and distribution expansion, while targeting underpenetrated cold consumption opportunities.
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 25d ago
Primo Brands' Spring Water Sales Increase 4.1%: What's Driving Growth? PRMB's regional spring water sales rise 4.1% as broad retail growth, share gains and brand building support expansion opportunities.
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 33d ago
Can Primo Brands' 30.5% Premium Water Growth Sustain Momentum? PRMB's premium portfolio increases 30.5% as Saratoga and Mountain Valley gain share, with distribution and capacity supporting further growth.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 39d ago
Chagee Holdings (CHA) Unveils Golden Chamomile And Spiced Ceylon Seasonal Drinks Chagee Holdings (NasdaqGS:CHA) has released two new seasonal drinks, including the Golden Chamomile fruit chamomile collection. The seasonal lineup now features a caffeine free chamomile series aimed at consumers seeking
🟡 MARKET WIRE Sponsored ADR (CHA) Could Surge 28.15%: Read This Before Placing a Bet • 41d ago
Wall Street Analysts Think Chagee Holdings Limited The average of price targets set by Wall Street analysts indicates a potential upside of 28.2% in Chagee Holdings Limited - Sponsored ADR (CHA). While the effectiveness of this highly sought-after metric is questionable,
🟡 MARKET WIRE Sponsored ADR (CHA)'s Technical Outlook is Bright After Key Golden Cross • 45d ago
Chagee Holdings Limited Good things could be on the horizon when a stock experiences a golden cross event. How should investors react?
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE
3 Active Posts & Replies
CHA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $12.66?
🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CHA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH
🎯 Target: $14.46 (+20.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate Cash-generation engine with 85% ROIC and a 7.65% FCF yield, with a P/E (TTM) of 13.7 and EV/EBITDA of 5.
Long CHA at $12.05 targeting $14.46. Cash-generation engine with 85% ROIC and a 7.65% FCF yield, with a P/E (TTM) of 13.7 and EV/EBITDA of 5.. Institutional whale score is 10/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $8.98 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.
VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL
Both sides have a point here — CHA's 16/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.
FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH
🎯 Target: $9.76 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $12.05 Weakest pillar is Whale 13F Flow at 9 / 20, indicating limited visible institutional accumulation.
Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on CHA: Weakest pillar is Whale 13F Flow at 9 / 20, indicating limited visible institutional accumulation.. At 13.7x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Restaurants triggers a 12-15% air pocket.