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Casey's General Stores Inc. (CASY) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$668.17 -1.77% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $664.77

Casey's General Stores Inc. (CASY) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $25.14B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CASY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Casey's General Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: CASY) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $668.17 (-1.77% 1D, market cap $25.14B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CASY ranks #209 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CASY compare to CPRT and PAG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations), CASY carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 35.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.0%. By comparison, CPRT (Copart Inc.) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 17.6x, ROIC 15.1%, cap $27.91B) and PAG (Penske Automotive Group Inc.) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 14.9x, ROIC 13.8%, cap $13.93B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PAG leads on earnings multiple (14.9x) while CVNA leads on capital efficiency (24.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CASY?
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Per CASY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-04-30, CIK 0000726958), Casey's General Stores Inc. generated $17.56B in revenue (+10.2% YoY), $714.4M in net income, and $721.6M in free cash flow against $8.59B in total assets and $2.33B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $664.76 (-0.51%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 4.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510066
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B-
Cash (15)Whales (10)SEC (18)Macro (10)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target
$974 Bull$692 Base$540 Bear
📬 FREE CASY RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CASY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CASY SCORES 66/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.19 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4.1% FCF Margin ($721.6M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (52.8) create a -10 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
58
Grade C$653.61+6.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
61
Grade C$695.19-3.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
63
Grade C+$670.02-0.3% Next Q
Current
66
Grade C+$668.17+1.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (58) → C+ (66)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CASY Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, CASY faces multiple-compression risk if 35.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($663.07) or 200D SMA ($742.67) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($692.22) toward Bear Floor ($539.93).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CASY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CASY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 28, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
2.13% Total Yield
0.33% Cash ($2.20/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
88/100 • FORTRESS PAYOUT
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
14% of FCF
8 consecutive years of payout growth
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (7.7% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $20,997

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $447/yr
$10.8K
Yr 1
$11.6K
Yr 2
$12.5K
Yr 3
$13.5K
Yr 4
$14.5K
Yr 5
$15.6K
Yr 6
$16.8K
Yr 7
$18.1K
Yr 8
$19.5K
Yr 9
$21.0K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Cash-Flow & Quality Compounder Desk

Cash-Fortress Compounders: Auditing Free Cash Flow & Yield Safety in CASY & A-Rated Leaders

  • ✓12-month Bull/Base/Bear fair-value walkthrough on CASY and its top sector peer
  • ✓Top Roarable A-Rated cash compounders with verified executive & 13F accumulation
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
CASY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -21.63%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $677.1H $680.2L $668.2C $668.2VOL 484.9K
RES: $828.7SUP: $512.8SMA50: $663.1SMA200: $742.7
$952.5$850.2$747.9$645.7$543.4RES $828.7SUP $512.8$668.22026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CASY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
27.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +10.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CASY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CASY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CASY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CASY)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #209 of 1009 ⚔️ CPRT vs CASY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (CASY vs. CPRT, PAG, MUSA, CVNA)

Industry: Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Casey's General Stores Inc. (CASY) ranks #209 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #79 by equity capitalization ($25.14B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PAG leads on earnings valuation at 14.9x trailing P/E, while CVNA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.6% ROIC and 20.6% gross margin. MUSA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with CASY at 66/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CASY ACTIVE
Casey's General Stores Inc.
C+ 66/100 35.1x — 12.0% -1.77% $25.14B Benchmark Subject
CPRT
Copart Inc.
B- 71/100 17.6x — 15.1% +5.97% $27.91B /cprt-vs-casy →
PAG
Penske Automotive Group Inc.
D+ 58/100 14.9x 16.4% 13.8% +0.53% $13.93B /pag-vs-casy →
MUSA
Murphy USA Inc.
B 74/100 21.1x — 24.5% -4.10% $9.83B /musa-vs-casy →
CVNA
Carvana Co.
D+ 58/100 53.6x 20.6% 24.6% +5.43% $75.34B /cvna-vs-casy →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-04-30 • CIK 0000726958 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-04-30), Casey's General Stores Inc. (CASY) reported GAAP revenue of $17.56B (+10.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $15.94B , and +18.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $714.4M, operating cash flow of $1.38B, and free cash flow of $721.6M (+23.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, CASY closed FY2025 with $8.59B in total assets against $2.33B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.19, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-04-30 $17.56B $714.4M $1.38B $721.6M $8.59B $2.33B
FY2024 (FY) 2025-04-30 $15.94B $546.5M $1.09B $584.6M $8.22B $2.44B
FY2023 (FY) 2024-04-30 $14.86B $502.0M $893.0M $224.1M $17.84B $4.17B

3. CASY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CASY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Casey's General Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: CASY) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $668.17 (-1.77% 1D, market cap $25.14B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CASY ranks #209 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CASY compare to CPRT and PAG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations), CASY carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 35.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.0%. By comparison, CPRT (Copart Inc.) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 17.6x, ROIC 15.1%, cap $27.91B) and PAG (Penske Automotive Group Inc.) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 14.9x, ROIC 13.8%, cap $13.93B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PAG leads on earnings multiple (14.9x) while CVNA leads on capital efficiency (24.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CASY?

Per CASY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-04-30, CIK 0000726958), Casey's General Stores Inc. generated $17.56B in revenue (+10.2% YoY), $714.4M in net income, and $721.6M in free cash flow against $8.59B in total assets and $2.33B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CASY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CASY last traded at $668.17 (-1.77% on volume of 540,868 shares), positioning the stock +0.77% above its 50-day simple moving average ($663.07) and -10.03% below its 200-day simple moving average ($742.67). Across its 52-week range of $501.91 to $927.85, CASY sits at the 39.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.0% ($634.76 to $701.58).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 66/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CASY — Casey's General Stores Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-04-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Casey's General Stores Inc. (CASY) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 66/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $668.17 (-1.77% 1D, market capitalization $25.14B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 12.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 5.0%, and free cash flow yield of 2.88%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (13/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 0.94x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 6.19, Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.61x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Casey's General Stores Inc. (CASY) is a NASDAQ-listed company classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations industry. Market capitalization is $25.0B. Gross margin is reported as 0%, operating margin as 5%, and net margin as 4.1% per the market data section.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-04-30), Casey's General Stores Inc. (CASY) reported $17.56B in annual revenue (up from $15.94B in FY2024, +10.2% YoY) and $714.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($14.86B revenue, $502.0M net income) through FY2025, CASY scaled operating cash flow to $1.38B and free cash flow to $721.6M, backed by $8.59B in total assets against $2.33B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 66/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $501.91 – $927.85 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 35.1x trailing P/E and 18.8x EV/EBITDA against 5.0% operating margins and a 0.94x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore provides no upstream supplier dependencies, downstream customer dependencies, or sector-correlation mapping for CASY. Second-order bottleneck analysis cannot be drawn from the provided sources. The sector and industry classification (Consumer Discretionary; Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations) is the only structural context available. Investors should note that the RQD Macro Regime Fit pillar flags sector sensitivity, which indicates exposure to sector-level moves, but the source does not specify which sector factors drive that exposure.

  • Key Question #1: Can CASY sustain or expand its 5.0% operating margin and 12.0% ROIC against Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $17.56B and free cash flow of $721.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $2.33B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is CASY's 32.6x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.94x)?

CASY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Casey's General Stores Inc. (CASY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CASY Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CASY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $668.17?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CASY 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CASY:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $816.23 (+20.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue, operating income, net income, and FCF all grew across FY 2023–FY 2025, while the forensic balance sheet scores 18 of 20 with A

Long CASY at $680.19 targeting $816.23. Revenue, operating income, net income, and FCF all grew across FY 2023–FY 2025, while the forensic balance sheet scores 18 of 20 with Altman Z 6.19, Piotroski F 9/9, and debt reduced from $4.17B to $2.33B.. Institutional whale score is 10/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $511.32 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@QuantViper Agree on the RQD 66/100 quality, though with 0.94 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $680.19 and keeping dry powder in case we test $632.58.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $571.36 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $680.19

At a 35.1 trailing P/E and 2.88% FCF yield, with Whale 13F Flow and Macro Regime Fit each scoring only 10 of 20, the stock is priced fo

I respect the product at Casey's General Stores Inc., but the stock at $680.19 is a different story. At a 35.1 trailing P/E and 2.88% FCF yield, with Whale 13F Flow and Macro Regime Fit each scoring only 10 of 20, the stock is priced for growth without measurable institutional conviction or clear macro tailwinds.. FCF yield is 2.88% and RQD sits at 66/100 (C+) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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