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Stock Ratings / Health Care / CARL / insiders
SI (44) NPCE (21) OFIX (42) BWAY (44) โŒ˜ Pro Terminal โ†’

Carlsmed Inc. (CARL) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$15.02 +0.47% NASDAQ โ€ข Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.00

Carlsmed Inc. (CARL) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 38/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- โ€ข RED ALERT Cap $408.2M
๐Ÿ“ค Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: ๐• Post Reddit StockTwits โฌ‡ Live SVG Card
โšก INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW โ€ข $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CARL Below โ€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
๐Ÿค– Mara Quenwick โ€ข AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CARL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
โ–ผ

As of 2026-11-03, Carlsmed Inc. (NASDAQ: CARL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $15.02 (+0.47% 1D, market cap $408.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, CARL ranks #506 in composite RQD confidence.

โœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
๐Ÿค– Ellis Vennor โ€ข AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CARL compare to SI and NPCE in the Health Care sector?
โ–ผ

Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Dental Instruments), CARL carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 75.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, SI (Shoulder Innovations Inc.) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -16.1%, cap $398.3M) and NPCE (Neuropace Inc.) posts a E grade (21/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -23.0%, cap $422.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CARL leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while OFIX leads on capital efficiency (-12.2% ROIC).

โœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
๐Ÿค– Gideon Ashmere โ€ข AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CARL?
โ–ผ

Per CARL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001794546), Carlsmed Inc. generated $50.5M in revenue (+85.9% YoY), -$29.6M in net income, and -$29.6M in free cash flow against $130.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

โœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
๐Ÿค– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists โ€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
๐Ÿ›ก๏ธ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.00 (-0.11%)๐Ÿงฌ Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)โš™๏ธ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) โ€ข 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit โ†’
๐Ÿ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 ยท D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY โ€ข 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record โ†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT โ€ข D-
025507510038
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0โ€“100 RQD rubric) โ€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- ยท Rk D-
Cash (8)Whales (11)SEC (8)Macro (8)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0โ€“20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9% Base Target
$18 Bull$14 Base$11 Bear
๐Ÿ“ฌ FREE CARL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: โ€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CARL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ยฑ10.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (38/100 Composite)
๐Ÿ” WHY CARL SCORES 38/100 (D-) โ€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
โ–ฒ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (29% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (ยฑ10.9% realized swing band)

โ–ฒ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+8/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 75.3% Gross Margin

โ–ผ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

๐Ÿ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 โ†’ Q2 โ†’ Q3 โ†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
30
Grade E$14.47-2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
33
Grade E$14.18+8.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
35
Grade E$15.42-2.6% Next Q
Current
38
Grade D-$15.02-7.8% Hist 90D ฮฑ
Trajectory: E (30) โ†’ D- (38)Full Audit โ†’
โš”๏ธ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

โš”๏ธ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CARL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk โ†’

While CARL currently carries a cautious 38/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

๐Ÿš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

๐Ÿš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($15.00) and Max Pain ($15.77) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $18.09.

๐Ÿš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

๐ŸŽฒ LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CARLโ€ข $2.4M Crowd Pool โ€ข Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: โ€œCARL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMAโ€
YES 38%NO 62%Trade / Inspect Odds โ†’
SEC FORM 4 ร— 13F HEDGE FUNDS ร— CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

CARL Smart-Money Thermometer: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales โ†’
โ–ฒ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)โ–ผ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (CARL)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on CARL. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP โ€ข SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CARL)

  • โœ“Walkthrough of CARL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • โœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • โœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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CARL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +65.24%๐Ÿ“ WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL
2026-11-03O $15.77H $15.77L $14.95C $15.02VOL 73.3K
RES: $16.21SUP: $13.86SMA50: $15.00SMA200: $12.43
$17.82$15.38$12.94$10.49$8.05RES $16.21SUP $13.86$15.022026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CARL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

๐Ÿฆ‹ CARL Butterfly Map โ†’ + Track CARL โ†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +85.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CARL today. View full Setup Ledger โ†’

๐Ÿฆ‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph โ†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CARL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
๐ŸŽฌ No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CARL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk โ†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT โ€ข SEC EDGAR XBRL ร— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

๐Ÿ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CARL)

Health Care Rank #506 of 1015 โš”๏ธ SI vs CARL Full Matrix โ†’

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (CARL vs. SI, NPCE, OFIX, BWAY)

Industry: Medical/Dental Instruments (120 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Carlsmed Inc. (CARL) ranks #506 by composite RQD confidence (38/100, grade D-) and #470 by equity capitalization ($408.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CARL leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while OFIX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -12.2% ROIC and 68.8% gross margin. SI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 44/100 (D) compared with CARL at 38/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CARL ACTIVE
Carlsmed Inc.
D- 38/100 โ€” 75.3% -35.0% +0.47% $408.2M Benchmark Subject
SI
Shoulder Innovations Inc.
D 44/100 โ€” 76.5% -16.1% +0.99% $398.3M /si-vs-carl โ†’
NPCE
Neuropace Inc.
E 21/100 โ€” 77.2% -23.0% +0.33% $422.2M /npce-vs-carl โ†’
OFIX
Orthofix Medical Inc.
D- 42/100 โ€” 68.8% -12.2% -3.53% $369.4M /ofix-vs-carl โ†’
BWAY
BrainsWay Ltd.
D 44/100 โ€” โ€” โ€” -2.38% $455.9M /bway-vs-carl โ†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024โ€“FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K โ€ข FILED 2025-12-31 โ€ข CIK 0001794546 โ†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Carlsmed Inc. (CARL) reported GAAP revenue of $50.5M (+85.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $27.2M ) , GAAP net income of -$29.6M, operating cash flow of -$29.0M, and free cash flow of -$29.6M (-15.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, CARL closed FY2025 with $130.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 7.83, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $50.5M -$29.6M -$29.0M -$29.6M $130.1M โ€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $27.2M -$24.3M -$25.5M -$25.6M $51.8M โ€”

3. CARL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

โœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CARL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Carlsmed Inc. (NASDAQ: CARL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $15.02 (+0.47% 1D, market cap $408.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, CARL ranks #506 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CARL compare to SI and NPCE in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Dental Instruments), CARL carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 75.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, SI (Shoulder Innovations Inc.) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -16.1%, cap $398.3M) and NPCE (Neuropace Inc.) posts a E grade (21/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -23.0%, cap $422.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CARL leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while OFIX leads on capital efficiency (-12.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CARL?

Per CARL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001794546), Carlsmed Inc. generated $50.5M in revenue (+85.9% YoY), -$29.6M in net income, and -$29.6M in free cash flow against $130.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CARL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CARL last traded at $15.02 (+0.47% on volume of 93,767 shares), positioning the stock +0.13% above its 50-day simple moving average ($15.00) and +20.84% above its 200-day simple moving average ($12.43). Across its 52-week range of $8.50 to $17.23, CARL sits at the 74.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ยฑ10.9% ($13.38 to $16.66).

Direct Sub-Reports: CARL RQD Cockpit CARL 12M Forecast CARL Earnings & Move CARL Dividends & DRIP CARL Insiders & 13F CARL Whale Options CARL Profit Sankey CARL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF โ€ข RQD 38/100 (D-) โœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CARL โ€” Carlsmed Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Carlsmed Inc. (CARL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 38/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $15.02 (+0.47% 1D, market capitalization $408.2M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of 75.3%, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of -6.88%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (11/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 7.83, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Carlsmed Inc. (CARL) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Medical/Dental Instruments industry. It carries a market capitalization of $0.4B. Per the market data, its gross margin is 75.3%, indicating high gross profit relative to revenue.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Carlsmed Inc. (CARL) reported $50.5M in annual revenue (up from $27.2M in FY2024, +85.9% YoY) and -$29.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2024 ($27.2M revenue, -$24.3M net income) through FY2025, CARL scaled operating cash flow to -$29.0M and free cash flow to -$29.6M, backed by $130.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • ๐Ÿ‚ Primary Bull Case (D- โ€ข RQD 38/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -6.88% and institutional whale pillar of 11/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 11/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $8.50 โ€“ $17.23 52-week range.
  • ๐Ÿป Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Medical/Dental Instruments (Health Care), CARL carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 75.3%.

  • Key Question #1: Can CARL sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Medical/Dental Instruments peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $50.5M and free cash flow of -$29.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is CARL's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

CARL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Carlsmed Inc. (CARL) โ€ข Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

๐Ÿ’ฌ Jump to CARL Debate Forum (3) โ†“
๐Ÿ”ฅ THE ROAR PIT โ€ข LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CARL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board โ€” What's Your Call at $15.02?

๐Ÿ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CARL ๐Ÿป 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CARL:
๐Ÿ’ก Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER โ€ข Swing & Catalyst Trader ๐Ÿ‚ BULLISH ๐ŸŽฏ Target: $19.43 (+30.0%)
๐Ÿ“Œ Pinned Debate

Revenue grew from $27.2M to $50.5M while cash rose from $40.1M to $85.8M, and the Altman Z-Score of 7.83 points to low near-term solven

Here is why I am bullish on CARL here at $14.95: Revenue grew from $27.2M to $50.5M while cash rose from $40.1M to $85.8M, and the Altman Z-Score of 7.83 points to low near-term solvency risk.. Compare CARL's -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against the rest of Medical/Dental Instruments. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $14.20 are getting bought.

SectorRotator ๐Ÿ‚ BULL

@RedlineAuditor Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Medical/Dental Instruments. If gross margin (75.3%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER โ€ข Accounting Quality Watch ๐Ÿป BEARISH ๐ŸŽฏ Target: $12.11 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $14.95

Operating margin of -60%, ROIC of -35%, and FCF of -$29.6M show the business is not yet self-funding, with insider selling also recorde

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short CARL above $14.95. Operating margin of -60%, ROIC of -35%, and FCF of -$29.6M show the business is not yet self-funding, with insider selling also recorded.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20) and FCF yield (-6.88%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $17.23.

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