The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. (BWIN) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
As of 2026-11-03, The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. (NASDAQ: BWIN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $31.93 (+0.31% 1D, market cap $4.45B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, BWIN ranks #687 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), BWIN carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.6%. By comparison, ARX (Accelerant Holdings (Class A)) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $4.30B) and CRVL (CorVel Corp.) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 37.6x, ROIC 29.4%, cap $4.15B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HGTY leads on earnings multiple (37.5x) while HGTY leads on capital efficiency (67.4% ROIC).
Per BWIN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001781755), The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. generated $1.49B in revenue (+8.5% YoY), -$54.2M in net income, and -$96.6M in free cash flow against $3.86B in total assets and $1.25B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±1.8% realized swing band)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9
Capital intensity & 4.9% operating margin leave 15 pts on the table
While BWIN currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($31.49) and Max Pain ($33.53) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $35.98.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. (BWIN) advanced +0.31% to $31.93, trading at 95% of its 52-week range ($15.88 – $32.71). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (4% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Yahoo Finance Singapore report covering The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. (BWIN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
The Globe and Mail report covering The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. (BWIN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. (BWIN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Titan report covering The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. (BWIN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Timothy Sykes report covering The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. (BWIN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. (BWIN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. (BWIN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. (BWIN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TAMPA, Fla., October 29, 2026--The Baldwin Group (NASDAQ: BWIN), a leading independent insurance distribution and solutions firm, today released its Q3 2026 Market Pulse report, which analyzes commercial insurance pricin
Madison Investments, an investment advisor, released its “Madison Small Cap Fund” Q3 2026 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. The Fund outperformed its small-cap benchmarks during the third quar
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +8.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BWIN today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BWIN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. (BWIN) ranks #687 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #290 by equity capitalization ($4.45B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HGTY leads on earnings valuation at 37.5x trailing P/E, while HGTY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 67.4% ROIC and — gross margin. CRVL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with BWIN at 48/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWIN
ACTIVE
The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. | D | 48/100 | — | — | 3.6% | +0.31% | $4.45B | Benchmark Subject |
| ARX Accelerant Holdings (Class A) | C | 64/100 | — | — | — | 0.00% | $4.30B | /arx-vs-bwin → |
| CRVL CorVel Corp. | B | 75/100 | 37.6x | — | 29.4% | +0.04% | $4.15B | /crvl-vs-bwin → |
| NP Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) | C | 64/100 | 106.4x | — | 28.2% | +1.28% | $4.03B | /np-vs-bwin → |
| HGTY Hagerty Inc. (Class A) | B | 75/100 | 37.5x | — | 67.4% | +0.78% | $5.64B | /hgty-vs-bwin → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. (BWIN) reported GAAP revenue of $1.49B (+8.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.38B , and +23.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$54.2M, operating cash flow of -$29.4M, and free cash flow of -$96.6M (-818.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, BWIN closed FY2025 with $3.86B in total assets against $1.25B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $1.49B | -$54.2M | -$29.4M | -$96.6M | $3.86B | $1.25B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $1.38B | -$41.1M | $51.5M | -$10.5M | $3.53B | $1.14B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $1.21B | -$164.0M | $46.0K | -$54.5M | $2.44B | $571.5M |
As of 2026-11-03, The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. (NASDAQ: BWIN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $31.93 (+0.31% 1D, market cap $4.45B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, BWIN ranks #687 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), BWIN carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.6%. By comparison, ARX (Accelerant Holdings (Class A)) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $4.30B) and CRVL (CorVel Corp.) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 37.6x, ROIC 29.4%, cap $4.15B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HGTY leads on earnings multiple (37.5x) while HGTY leads on capital efficiency (67.4% ROIC).
Per BWIN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001781755), The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. generated $1.49B in revenue (+8.5% YoY), -$54.2M in net income, and -$96.6M in free cash flow against $3.86B in total assets and $1.25B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
BWIN last traded at $31.93 (+0.31% on volume of 1,581,024 shares), positioning the stock +1.40% above its 50-day simple moving average ($31.49) and +26.86% above its 200-day simple moving average ($25.17). Across its 52-week range of $15.88 to $32.71, BWIN sits at the 95.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($31.36 to $32.50).
Why BWIN Stock advanced +0.31% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (4% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Per the Roarable RQD rating, BWIN scores 46 out of 100, a letter grade of D, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 (ROIC 3.6%; FCF yield -2.18%), Whale 13F Flow at 14/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 7/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 9/20 (Beta 1.12; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 11/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 4/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). The weakest pillar is the cash engine, which is the score most directly tied to whether reported earnings convert into cash. For a prospective investor, the upside case rests mainly on the institutional-flow and balance-sheet pillars, while the downside case rests on negative free cash flow, negative net margin, and a forward P/E of 29 relative to EPS (TTM) of -0.39. The rating does not translate into a price target, and this brief is educational rather than personalized advice.
Per the company profile, The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Specialty Insurers industry. The source data does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model beyond the sector and industry classification. Not available in source data for detailed product lines, customer segments, or monetization mechanics.
| Period | Revenue | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS | FCF | Cash | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $1493.7M | $73.9M | $-54.2M | N/A | $-96.6M | $123.7M | $1250.0M |
| FY 2024 | $1377.1M | $60.6M | $-41.1M | N/A | $-10.5M | $90.0M | $1136.7M |
| FY 2023 | $1211.8M | $-42.6M | $-164.0M | N/A | $-54.5M | N/A | $571.5M |
Per the SEC financials, revenue rose across the three reported years while net income remained negative in each. Per the market data, the operating margin is 4.9%, the net margin is -3.6%, and ROIC is 3.6%. The Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9, per the forensic balance-sheet pillar, with Debt/Equity at 0.5. Debt increased from $571.5M in FY 2023 to $1250.0M in FY 2025 per the SEC financials.
Per the recent news feed, the most material item is a report that a proposed buyout would pay Baldwin shareholders $32.50 a share, subject to approvals; the current price of $31.83 sits just below that figure. A second item is a downgrade from TD Cowen, flagged RED under RISK WATCH. Other wire items, including a MarketBeat report of a "Hold" rating and a Globe and Mail headline citing strong Q3 2026 results, are flagged YELLOW under MARKET WIRE. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. (BWIN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Yahoo Finance Singapore report covering The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. (BWIN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
The Globe and Mail report covering The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. (BWIN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. (BWIN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Titan report covering The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. (BWIN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Timothy Sykes report covering The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. (BWIN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. (BWIN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. (BWIN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. (BWIN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Welcome to the BWIN (The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 46/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Specialty Insurers. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on BWIN, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on BWIN, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Specialty Insurers and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $31.83 (52-wk range $15.88 - $32.71), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.
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