What is BLBD's 12-month stock price target?

Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $58.42 (+4.5% from $55.90), with a bull-case target of $87.56 and a bear-case floor of $45.57.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / BLBD / forecast

HYLN (29) MLR (57) SCAG (47) GP (47) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Q: Is BLBD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates BLBD C+ (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 68/100.

$55.90 -0.80% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $55.71

Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.75B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on BLBD Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BLBD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ: BLBD) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $55.90 (-0.80% 1D, market cap $1.75B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 19/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, BLBD ranks #188 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BLBD compare to HYLN and MLR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks), BLBD carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.8x, gross margin of 20.5%, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, HYLN (Hyliion Holdings Corp. (Class A)) holds a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -30.6%, cap $580.4M) and MLR (Miller Industries Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 25.7x, ROIC 5.5%, cap $577.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BLBD leads on earnings multiple (13.8x) while BLBD leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BLBD?

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Per BLBD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-27, CIK 0001589526), Blue Bird Corporation generated $1.48B in revenue (+9.9% YoY), $127.7M in net income, and $176.2M in free cash flow against $642.3M in total assets and $84.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (21% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $55.72 (-0.33%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 11.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BLBD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BLBD SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 11.9% FCF Margin ($176.2M FCF) & 20.5% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+19/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B+$56.41+1.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B$57.37-1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B$56.82-1.6% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$55.90+1.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B+ (76) → C+ (68)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BLBD Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, BLBD faces multiple-compression risk if 13.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 18.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($58.44) or 200D SMA ($63.25) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($58.42) toward Bear Floor ($45.57).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BLBD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BLBD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 26, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 68%NO 32%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your BLBD Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $55.90: 178.9 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $45.57

$8,152

$-1,848 (-18.5%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $58.42

$10,451

+$451 (+4.5%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $87.56

$15,664

+$5,664 (+56.6%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$61	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$82	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$52	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (BLBD Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

BLBD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -11.11%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-03O $56.35H $56.35L $55.90C $55.90VOL 486.5K

RES: $86.17SUP: $52.61SMA50: $58.44SMA200: $63.25

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BLBD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BLBD Butterfly Map → + Track BLBD →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

5.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +9.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BLBD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BLBD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BLBD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BLBD)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #188 of 1011 ⚔️ HYLN vs BLBD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (BLBD vs. HYLN, MLR, SCAG, GP)

Industry: Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks (14 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) ranks #188 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #432 by equity capitalization ($1.75B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BLBD leads on earnings valuation at 13.8x trailing P/E, while BLBD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 20.5% gross margin. BLBD currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BLBD ACTIVE Blue Bird Corporation	C+	68/100	13.8x	20.5%	85.0%	-0.80%	$1.75B	Benchmark Subject
HYLN Hyliion Holdings Corp. (Class A)	E	29/100	—	4.9%	-30.6%	-5.25%	$580.4M	/hyln-vs-blbd →
MLR Miller Industries Inc.	D+	57/100	25.7x	15.2%	5.5%	-2.49%	$577.0M	/mlr-vs-blbd →
SCAG Scage Future	D	47/100	—	-6.4%	—	-5.90%	$10.0M	/scag-vs-blbd →
GP GreenPower Motor Company Inc.	D	47/100	—	—	—	-8.40%	$2.3M	/gp-vs-blbd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-27 • CIK 0001589526

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-27), Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) reported GAAP revenue of $1.48B (+9.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.35B , and +30.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $127.7M, operating cash flow of $176.2M, and free cash flow of $176.2M (+58.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, BLBD closed FY2025 with $642.3M in total assets against $84.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-27	$1.48B	$127.7M	$176.2M	$176.2M	$642.3M	$84.2M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-28	$1.35B	$105.5M	$111.1M	$111.1M	$535.2M	$88.8M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$1.13B	$23.8M	$119.9M	$119.9M	—	—

3. BLBD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BLBD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does BLBD compare to HYLN and MLR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BLBD?

Where is BLBD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BLBD last traded at $55.90 (-0.80% on volume of 486,523 shares), positioning the stock -4.35% below its 50-day simple moving average ($58.44) and -11.62% below its 200-day simple moving average ($63.25). Across its 52-week range of $46.14 to $83.39, BLBD sits at the 26.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.3% ($52.38 to $59.42).

Direct Sub-Reports: BLBD RQD Cockpit BLBD 12M Forecast BLBD Earnings & Move BLBD Dividends & DRIP BLBD Insiders & 13F BLBD Whale Options BLBD Profit Sankey BLBD News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 68/100 (C+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

BLBD — Blue Bird Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:27:52Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, BLBD scores 69 out of 100 (letter grade C+, verdict "Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout"). The five pillars are:

Fundamental Cash Engine — 19 / 20: Reported ROIC of 85% and an FCF yield of 9.98%. This is the strongest pillar and the main upside driver in the framework: the business appears to generate substantial cash relative to capital employed, though the ROIC figure is a source-reported value that should be interpreted with care.
Whale 13F Flow — 5 / 20: Institutional accumulation and options positioning score poorly. Per the rating, institutional flow is not supportive, which is a meaningful drag on the composite.
Insider Conviction — 19 / 20: Per the rating, SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow scores strongly. This pillar offsets the weak institutional picture.
Macro Regime Fit — 11 / 20: Beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity place the stock in a middle-of-the-road macro posture; it neither hedges nor amplifies broad market moves in the framework's view.
Forensic Balance Sheet — 15 / 20: Altman Z of 2.5, Piotroski F of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.31 indicate a generally sound balance sheet, with the Piotroski result a clear strength.

For a prospective investor, the composite reads as a hold with upside potential contingent on whether institutional interest improves. The valuation tradeoff is visible in the market data: at a P/E (TTM) of 13.8 and EV/EBITDA of 9.6, the stock is not priced at a premium, but the 52-week range ($46.14 – $83.39) shows the price sits well below its high. The weak whale-flow score is the clearest counterweight to the strong cash and insider pillars.

Business

Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) is a NASDAQ-listed company classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks industry. Per the SEC financials, the company reported annual revenue of $1.48B for FY 2025.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news wire, several items carry a RED "RISK WATCH" flag: two headlines titled "Bear of the Day: Blue Bird (BLBD)" from Yahoo Finance and TradingView. Other items are flagged YELLOW "MARKET WIRE": a Seeking Alpha piece titled "Blue Bird: Micro Bird, Now Time To Fly," a Yahoo Finance piece titled "3 Reasons BLBD Has Explosive Upside Potential," a MarketBeat report on an institutional holder reducing its stake, and a Stock Titan report stating the company has lower loan rates and $600 million in credit capacity. The article bodies are not included in source data, so the reasoning behind these headlines and flags cannot be verified. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. The graph's sector and industry classification (Consumer Discretionary; Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks) is the only sector context provided. Investors should watch whether the institutional reduction noted in the news wire and the RED-flagged risk headlines develop further, since the source data cannot confirm their underlying drivers or any second-order effects.

Open Questions

What are the customer, product, and revenue-mix details behind the reported FY 2025 revenue of $1.48B?
What is the basis for the source-reported ROIC of 85%, and how does it reconcile with the reported net margin of 8.6%?
What drove the RED "RISK WATCH" flags on the "Bear of the Day" headlines, and what do the underlying articles say?
Who are the current institutional holders, and what is the size and direction of recent 13F changes?
Why are FY 2024 and FY 2023 EPS, cash, and debt figures absent or N/A in the source data?

BLBD Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BLBD Debate Forum (3) ↓

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 19h ago

Bear of the Day: Blue Bird (BLBD)

Yahoo Finance report covering Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Blue Bird: Micro Bird, Now Time To Fly

Seeking Alpha report covering Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

3 Reasons BLBD Has Explosive Upside Potential

Yahoo Finance report covering Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Blue Bird Corporation $BLBD Stock: Smith Group Asset Management LLC Reduces Stake

MarketBeat report covering Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

School bus maker Blue Bird now has lower loan rates and $600 million in credit capacity.

Stock Titan report covering Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Blue Bird (BLBD) Stock Still Seems Cheap After Its 210% Run

Simply Wall St report covering Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Blue Bird: The Profit Test Behind Its Next Growth Cycle (NASDAQ:BLBD)

Seeking Alpha report covering Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 2d ago

Earnings Estimate Cut Could Be A Key Test For Blue Bird Stock (BLBD)

Blue Bird recently faced downward revisions to earnings estimates and a Zacks Rank cut to #5 (Strong Sell), even as analysts still project year over year growth in upcoming results and expect higher revenue in the next q

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BLBD Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $55.90?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BLBD 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $60.86 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is BLBD (C+ • RQD 69/100) a Buy at $56.35?

Welcome to the BLBD (Blue Bird Corporation) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 69/100 (Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout) in Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks. Bulls point to capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $43.39 (-23.0%)

Spot @ $56.35

Pump the brakes on BLBD — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on BLBD, but look at what you are paying: 13.8x trailing P/E with 20.5% gross margins. Unless Blue Bird Corporation expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $68.18 (+21.0%)

Spot @ $56.35

BLBD cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on BLBD, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $56.35 (52-wk range $46.14 - $83.39), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.