What is BKD's 12-month stock price target?

Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $9.22 (-11.7% from $10.44), with a bull-case target of $17.94 and a bear-case floor of $7.19.

Stock Ratings / Health Care / BKD / forecast

MD (77) SGRY (66) NHC (72) ARDT (69) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Q: Is BKD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates BKD E (Strong Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 32/100.

$10.44 +0.48% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.43

Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 32/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (32/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $2.48B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BKD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (NYSE: BKD) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 32/100 at a spot price of $10.44 (+0.48% 1D, market cap $2.48B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, BKD ranks #711 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BKD compare to MD and SGRY in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Hospital/Nursing Management), BKD carries a Roarable E (32/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 26.2%, and ROIC of 0.3%. By comparison, MD (Pediatrix Medical Group Inc.) holds a B+ grade (77/100 RQD, P/E 14.3x, ROIC 33.6%, cap $2.33B) and SGRY (Surgery Partners Inc.) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 9.9%, cap $3.04B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARDT leads on earnings multiple (12.8x) while MD leads on capital efficiency (33.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BKD?

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Per BKD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001332349), Brookdale Senior Living Inc. generated $3.19B in revenue (+2.2% YoY), -$262.7M in net income, and $16.5M in free cash flow against $5.95B in total assets and $4.22B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.43 (-0.10%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (32/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk E

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-11.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BKD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (32/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BKD SCORES 32/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.5% FCF Margin ($16.5M FCF) & 26.2% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+7/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.7% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$10.12-0.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$10.07-5.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$9.53+9.5% Next Q

Current

Grade E$10.44-9.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (24) → E (32)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BKD Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While BKD currently carries a cautious 32/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.00) and Max Pain ($10.96) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $17.94.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BKD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BKD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 32%NO 68%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your BKD Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $10.44: 957.9 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $7.19

$6,887

$-3,113 (-31.1%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $9.22

$8,831

$-1,169 (-11.7%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $17.94

$17,184

+$7,184 (+71.8%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$10	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$17	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$8	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BKD)

✓Walkthrough of BKD's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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BKD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -25.53%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-11-03O $10.27H $10.44L $10.27C $10.44VOL 5.49M

RES: $10.30SUP: $8.62SMA50: $11.00SMA200: $13.31

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BKD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BKD Butterfly Map → + Track BKD →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

32.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +2.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BKD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BKD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BKD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BKD)

Health Care Rank #711 of 1016 ⚔️ MD vs BKD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (BKD vs. MD, SGRY, NHC, ARDT)

Industry: Hospital/Nursing Management (14 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) ranks #711 by composite RQD confidence (32/100, grade E) and #220 by equity capitalization ($2.48B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARDT leads on earnings valuation at 12.8x trailing P/E, while MD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.6% ROIC and — gross margin. MD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 77/100 (B+) compared with BKD at 32/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BKD ACTIVE Brookdale Senior Living Inc.	E	32/100	—	26.2%	0.3%	+0.48%	$2.48B	Benchmark Subject
MD Pediatrix Medical Group Inc.	B+	77/100	14.3x	—	33.6%	+2.99%	$2.33B	/md-vs-bkd →
SGRY Surgery Partners Inc.	C+	66/100	—	—	9.9%	-0.39%	$3.04B	/sgry-vs-bkd →
NHC National HealthCare Corporation	B	72/100	27.7x	—	10.1%	-1.96%	$3.23B	/nhc-vs-bkd →
ARDT Ardent Health Inc.	C+	69/100	12.8x	—	10.5%	-2.49%	$1.70B	/ardt-vs-bkd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001332349

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) reported GAAP revenue of $3.19B (+2.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.13B , and +5.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$262.7M, operating cash flow of $218.0M, and free cash flow of $16.5M (+147.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, BKD closed FY2025 with $5.95B in total assets against $4.22B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$3.19B	-$262.7M	$218.0M	$16.5M	$5.95B	$4.22B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$3.13B	-$201.9M	$166.2M	-$35.1M	$6.34B	$4.02B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$3.02B	-$189.0M	$162.9M	$162.9M	—	—

3. BKD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BKD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does BKD compare to MD and SGRY in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BKD?

Where is BKD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BKD last traded at $10.44 (+0.48% on volume of 5,472,430 shares), positioning the stock -5.09% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.00) and -21.56% below its 200-day simple moving average ($13.31). Across its 52-week range of $8.02 to $17.09, BKD sits at the 26.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.7% ($9.74 to $11.14).

Direct Sub-Reports: BKD RQD Cockpit BKD 12M Forecast BKD Earnings & Move BKD Dividends & DRIP BKD Insiders & 13F BKD Whale Options BKD Profit Sankey BKD News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 32/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

BKD — Brookdale Senior Living Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:25:39Z

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

The Roarable RQD score for BKD is 31 out of 100, graded E, with the verdict "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid" (). The five pillars are each scored out of 20:

Fundamental Cash Engine: 9 / 20. The pillar cites ROIC of 0.3% and FCF yield of 0.67% (and market data). Returns on invested capital are close to zero, so the business is generating little economic profit on the capital it employs. For an investor, this means the cash-generation case is weak, and any valuation rests more on recovery expectations than on current earnings power.
Whale / 13F Flow: 6 / 20. The pillar is labeled as institutional accumulation and options positioning (). Investors should treat this as a modest signal, not a confirmed institutional endorsement.
Insider Conviction: 5 / 20. The pillar references SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow (). The underlying transactions are not itemized in the source data. A low insider score suggests insiders are not signaling strong conviction in the shares.
Macro Regime Fit: 6 / 20. The pillar cites a beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity (and market data). A beta of 1.0 means the stock is expected to move in line with the broad market, so it does not offer a defensive profile on this measure, and its sector exposure adds a layer of regime risk.
Forensic Balance Sheet: 5 / 20. The pillar cites Altman Z of 0.2, Piotroski F of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5 (). An Altman Z of 0.2 is the weakest forensic input in the set and signals elevated financial distress risk; this is the pillar most responsible for the forensic-risk verdict.

Taken together, the composite points to a stock where the upside case depends on a turnaround in profitability and cash conversion that the current numbers do not yet show. Valuation tradeoffs are significant: EV/EBITDA of 34.6 (per market data) is high relative to the thin operating margin and near-zero ROIC, so a prospective investor is paying for improvement that has not yet arrived. The main upside driver would be sustained operating-margin and cash-flow improvement; the main downside is that the balance sheet has limited room to absorb further weakness.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating within the Hospital/Nursing Management industry (per the company profile). Revenue of $3. Further business description is —

Revenue rose across the three reported periods, but net income was negative in every period, and FY 2025 net income of -$262.7M was larger in magnitude than FY 2024's -$201.9M. Market data show a gross margin of 26.2%, operating margin of 0.4%, and net margin of -8.2%, with ROIC of 0.3%. The Altman Z-Score is 0.2 and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (), both weak readings. Debt of $4.21B against cash of $279.1M (FY 2025) indicates a leveraged balance sheet, with Debt/Equity of 0.5 ().

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case: Recent headlines point to stronger occupancy results that could support a margin and cash-flow recovery from the current near-zero ROIC. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 (ROIC 0.3%, FCF yield 0.67%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $8.02 – $17.09 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case: Negative net income in every reported period, an Altman Z of 0.2, and a 34.6 EV/EBITDA leave little margin for error if the recovery stalls. Investors must weigh current valuation and 34.6x EV/EBITDA against 0.4% operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph records no upstream or downstream links, no sector correlations, and no proprietary signals for BKD.

Key Question #1: What drove the increase in net loss from -$201.9M (FY 2024) to -$262.7M (FY 2025) despite revenue growth?
Key Question #2: What is the trend and level of occupancy, and does the September 2026 occupancy release confirm or contradict the "slowing recovery" headline?
Key Question #3: What is the composition of the $4.21B debt, including maturities and refinancing needs against $279.1M of cash?

BKD Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BKD Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 20h ago

Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 23h ago

Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) Tests Its Valuation On Stronger Occupancy Results

Yahoo Finance report covering Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) Stock Price, News & Analysis $BKD

MarketBeat report covering Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Brookdale Announces Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call

TradingView report covering Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE PR Newswire • 1d ago

Brookdale Reports September 2026 Occupancy

PR Newswire report covering Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Timothy Sykes • 1d ago

BKD Stock Slides As Occupancy Recovery Shows Signs Of Slowing

Timothy Sykes report covering Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE StockStory • 1d ago

1 safe-and-steady stock to own for decades and 2 we question

StockStory report covering Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Brookdale Senior Living (BKD): Favorable Senior Housing Demographics Reaffirm Long-Term Thesis

Yahoo Finance report covering Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BKD Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $10.44?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BKD 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

CA CashFlowKing FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $12.26 (+18.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Recent headlines point to stronger occupancy results that could support a margin and cash-flow recovery from the current near-zero ROIC

Here is why I am bullish on BKD here at $10.39: Recent headlines point to stronger occupancy results that could support a margin and cash-flow recovery from the current near-zero ROIC.. Compare BKD's 0.4% operating margin and 0.3% ROIC against the rest of Hospital/Nursing Management. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $9.87 are getting bought.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@ForensicBear Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Hospital/Nursing Management. If gross margin (26.2%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FO ForensicBear 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.00 (-23.0%)

Spot @ $10.39

Negative net income in every reported period, an Altman Z of 0.2, and a 34.6 EV/EBITDA leave little margin for error if the recovery st

Careful chasing BKD at $10.39. Negative net income in every reported period, an Altman Z of 0.2, and a 34.6 EV/EBITDA leave little margin for error if the recovery stalls.. Gross margin is 26.2%, but operating margin is 0.4%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $8.00 on multiple compression.