How profitable is BJ's Restaurants Inc. (BJRI)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), BJRI converted $1.4B of revenue into a 74.7% gross margin, 3.3% operating margin, and $40.9M in free cash flow (2.9% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / BJRI / financials

SG (31) WEN (49) ARCO (48) CBRL (70) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

BJ's Restaurants Inc. (BJRI) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$63.14 +0.98% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $63.13

BJ's Restaurants Inc. (BJRI) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.33B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BJRI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, BJ's Restaurants Inc. (NASDAQ: BJRI) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $63.14 (+0.98% 1D, market cap $1.33B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, BJRI ranks #302 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BJRI compare to SG and WEN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), BJRI carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 27.6x, gross margin of 74.7%, and ROIC of 10.7%. By comparison, SG (Sweetgreen Inc. (Class A)) holds a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.32B) and WEN (Wendy's Company) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 8.3x, ROIC 10.7%, cap $1.37B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARCO leads on earnings multiple (6.9x) while ARCO leads on capital efficiency (18.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BJRI?

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Per BJRI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-30, CIK 0001013488), BJ's Restaurants Inc. generated $1.40B in revenue (+3.1% YoY), $48.8M in net income, and $40.9M in free cash flow against $1.02B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $63.13 (-0.01%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 2.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BJRI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (61/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BJRI SCORES 61/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±8.6% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.04 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (56.6) create a -11 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$60.03-1.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$59.07-2.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$57.46+9.9% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$63.14+0.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → C- (61)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BJRI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 61/100 (C-) score, BJRI faces multiple-compression risk if 27.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 72.2% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($60.63) or 200D SMA ($51.01) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($63.99) toward Bear Floor ($49.91).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BJRI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BJRI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 61%NO 39%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How BJRI Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$40.9M (2.9% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $1.33B

FY24

Rev $1.36B

FY25

Rev $1.40B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$1.40B	74.7%	3.3%	$48.8M	$40.9M	10.7%
FY 2024	$1.36B	74.2%	1%	$16.7M	$24.6M	3.2%
FY 2023	$1.33B	74.7%	1%	$19.7M	$105.8M	10.7%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BJRI)

✓Walkthrough of BJRI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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BJRI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +70.83%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $63.28H $63.28L $62.53C $63.14VOL 396.2K

RES: $64.62SUP: $55.01SMA50: $60.63SMA200: $51.01

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BJRI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BJRI Butterfly Map → + Track BJRI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

21.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BJRI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BJRI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BJRI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BJRI)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #302 of 1009 ⚔️ SG vs BJRI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (BJRI vs. SG, WEN, ARCO, CBRL)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, BJ's Restaurants Inc. (BJRI) ranks #302 by composite RQD confidence (61/100, grade C-) and #471 by equity capitalization ($1.33B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARCO leads on earnings valuation at 6.9x trailing P/E, while ARCO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.9% ROIC and 96.0% gross margin. CBRL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with BJRI at 61/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BJRI ACTIVE BJ's Restaurants Inc.	C-	61/100	27.6x	74.7%	10.7%	+0.98%	$1.33B	Benchmark Subject
SG Sweetgreen Inc. (Class A)	E	31/100	—	—	-35.0%	+3.61%	$1.32B	/sg-vs-bjri →
WEN Wendy's Company	D	49/100	8.3x	63.6%	10.7%	+0.69%	$1.37B	/wen-vs-bjri →
ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A)	D	48/100	6.9x	96.0%	18.9%	+0.59%	$1.42B	/arco-vs-bjri →
CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc	B-	70/100	34.9x	69.0%	5.4%	-0.43%	$1.57B	/cbrl-vs-bjri →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-30 • CIK 0001013488 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-30), BJ's Restaurants Inc. (BJRI) reported GAAP revenue of $1.40B (+3.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.36B , and +4.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $48.8M, operating cash flow of $110.5M, and free cash flow of $40.9M (+66.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, BJRI closed FY2025 with $1.02B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.04, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-30	$1.40B	$48.8M	$110.5M	$40.9M	$1.02B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.36B	$16.7M	$101.5M	$24.6M	$1.04B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-01-02	$1.33B	$19.7M	$105.8M	$105.8M	—	—

3. BJRI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BJRI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does BJRI compare to SG and WEN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BJRI?

Where is BJRI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BJRI last traded at $63.14 (+0.98% on volume of 511,045 shares), positioning the stock +4.14% above its 50-day simple moving average ($60.63) and +23.78% above its 200-day simple moving average ($51.01). Across its 52-week range of $32.39 to $74.60, BJRI sits at the 72.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.6% ($57.71 to $68.57).

Direct Sub-Reports: BJRI RQD Cockpit BJRI 12M Forecast BJRI Earnings & Move BJRI Dividends & DRIP BJRI Insiders & 13F BJRI Whale Options BJRI Profit Sankey BJRI News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 61/100 (C-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BJRI — BJ's Restaurants Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

BJ's Restaurants Inc. (BJRI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 61/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $63.14 (+0.98% 1D, market capitalization $1.33B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 10.7%, gross margin of 74.7%, operating margin of 3.3%, and free cash flow yield of 3.04%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (15/20) + Insider Conviction (11/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.04, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

BJ's Restaurants Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Restaurants industry..3B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-30), BJ's Restaurants Inc. (BJRI) reported $1.40B in annual revenue (up from $1.36B in FY2024, +3.1% YoY) and $48.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.33B revenue, $19.7M net income) through FY2025, BJRI scaled operating cash flow to $110.5M and free cash flow to $40.9M, backed by $1.02B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 61/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of 3.04% and institutional whale pillar of 15/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 15/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $32.39 – $74.60 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 27.6x trailing P/E and 12.5x EV/EBITDA against 3.3% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Restaurants (Consumer Discretionary), BJRI carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 74.7%.

Key Question #1: Can BJRI sustain or expand its 3.3% operating margin and 10.7% ROIC against Restaurants peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.40B and free cash flow of $40.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is BJRI's 25.7x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

BJRI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for BJ's Restaurants Inc. (BJRI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BJRI Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 23h ago

BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering BJ's Restaurants Inc. (BJRI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

BJ's Restaurants: The Market Finally Gets It (NASDAQ:BJRI)

Seeking Alpha report covering BJ's Restaurants Inc. (BJRI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance UK • 1d ago

BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI) stock price, news, quote and history

Yahoo Finance UK report covering BJ's Restaurants Inc. (BJRI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com Nigeria • 1d ago

BJ’s Restaurants stock rating maintained at Buy by StoneX on traffic strength

Investing.com Nigeria report covering BJ's Restaurants Inc. (BJRI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (NASDAQ:BJRI) Stock Has Consensus Target Price of $57.12 According to Analysts

MarketBeat report covering BJ's Restaurants Inc. (BJRI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

Vanguard reports a BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) stake with sole voting power over 17,164 shares.

Stock Titan report covering BJ's Restaurants Inc. (BJRI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Simply Wall St • 1d ago

BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) Stock Dropped, So What Is Driving Attention Now?

Simply Wall St report covering BJ's Restaurants Inc. (BJRI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) Stock May Be 12% Overvalued On Current Cash Flow

Yahoo Finance report covering BJ's Restaurants Inc. (BJRI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BJRI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $63.14?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BJRI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $79.41 (+27.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue grew to $1.40B in FY 2025 with operating income rising to $46.3M, while the balance sheet screens reasonably sound with an Al

Revenue grew to $1.40B in FY 2025 with operating income rising to $46.3M, while the balance sheet screens reasonably sound with an Altman Z of 3.04 and Piotroski F of 6/9.. When you look under the hood at BJRI, Fundamental Cash Engine is 12/20 with 74.7% gross margins and 10.7% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (15/20) has been quietly accumulating below $74.60. My 12M target is $79.41.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

@MultipleCompression Shorting a 15/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $62.53 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $52.53 (-16.0%)

Spot @ $62.53

At a trailing P/E of 27.6 and a 3.04% FCF yield, with free cash flow down from $105.8M in FY 2023 to $40.9M in FY 2025 and beta of 1.0,

Careful chasing BJRI at $62.53. At a trailing P/E of 27.6 and a 3.04% FCF yield, with free cash flow down from $105.8M in FY 2023 to $40.9M in FY 2025 and beta of 1.0, valuation leaves limited cushion.. Gross margin is 74.7%, but operating margin is 3.3%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $52.53 on multiple compression.