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Bilibili Inc. (BILI) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$13.51 +6.55% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.64

Bilibili Inc. (BILI) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $5.28B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on BILI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BILI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Bilibili Inc. (NASDAQ: BILI) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $13.51 (+6.55% 1D, market cap $5.28B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, BILI ranks #303 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BILI compare to PSN and WAY in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (EDP Services), BILI carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 31.4x, gross margin of 36.6%, and ROIC of 10.9%. By comparison, PSN (Parsons Corporation) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 21.6x, ROIC 9.7%, cap $5.35B) and WAY (Waystar Holding Corp.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 48.3x, ROIC 3.7%, cap $5.37B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PEGA leads on earnings multiple (14.2x) while PEGA leads on capital efficiency (22.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BILI?
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Per BILI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001723690), Bilibili Inc. generated $4.34B in revenue (+18.1% YoY), $170.7M in net income, and $948.7M in free cash flow against $5.89B in total assets and $682.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.64 (+0.99%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 21.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510053
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D
Cash (14)Whales (4)SEC (11)Macro (9)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.2% Base Target
$38 Bull$13 Base$10 Bear
📬 FREE BILI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BILI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BILI SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 21.9% FCF Margin ($948.7M FCF) & 36.6% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
61
Grade C$14.27-4.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
58
Grade C$13.60-5.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
56
Grade C$12.90+4.7% Next Q
Current
53
Grade D+$13.51-0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (61) → D+ (53)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BILI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While BILI currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($14.70) and Max Pain ($14.19) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $38.22.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BILI• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BILI Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 53%NO 47%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your BILI Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $13.51: 740.2 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $10.30
$7,624
$-2,376 (-23.8%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $13.21
$9,778
$-222 (-2.2%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $38.22
$28,290
+$18,290 (+182.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$1474%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$3669%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$1258%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BILI)

  • ✓Walkthrough of BILI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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BILI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -37.71%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $12.87H $13.51L $12.68C $13.51VOL 2.58M
RES: $14.33SUP: $12.54SMA50: $14.70SMA200: $20.44
$27.36$23.37$19.38$15.39$11.40RES $14.33SUP $12.54$13.512026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BILI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BILI Butterfly Map → + Track BILI →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
24.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +18.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BILI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BILI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BILI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BILI)

Technology Rank #303 of 715 ⚔️ PSN vs BILI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (BILI vs. PSN, WAY, APLD, PEGA)

Industry: EDP Services (163 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Bilibili Inc. (BILI) ranks #303 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #211 by equity capitalization ($5.28B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PEGA leads on earnings valuation at 14.2x trailing P/E, while PEGA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 22.4% ROIC and 75.9% gross margin. PEGA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with BILI at 53/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BILI ACTIVE
Bilibili Inc.
D+ 53/100 31.4x 36.6% 10.9% +6.55% $5.28B Benchmark Subject
PSN
Parsons Corporation
D+ 58/100 21.6x 22.5% 9.7% +4.46% $5.35B /psn-vs-bili →
WAY
Waystar Holding Corp.
C 63/100 48.3x — 3.7% +0.50% $5.37B /way-vs-bili →
APLD
Applied Digital Corporation
D- 37/100 — 35.1% -21.7% -8.95% $5.39B /apld-vs-bili →
PEGA
Pegasystems Inc.
B- 71/100 14.2x 75.9% 22.4% +1.92% $5.55B /pega-vs-bili →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001723690 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Bilibili Inc. (BILI) reported GAAP revenue of $4.34B (+18.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.68B , and +36.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $170.7M, operating cash flow of $1.02B, and free cash flow of $948.7M (+24.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, BILI closed FY2025 with $5.89B in total assets against $682.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.13, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $4.34B $170.7M $1.02B $948.7M $5.89B $682.9M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $3.68B $0 $824.0M $760.3M $4.48B $447.2M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $3.17B $0 $37.6M -$105.2M $3.81B $891.0M

3. BILI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BILI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Bilibili Inc. (NASDAQ: BILI) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $13.51 (+6.55% 1D, market cap $5.28B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, BILI ranks #303 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BILI compare to PSN and WAY in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (EDP Services), BILI carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 31.4x, gross margin of 36.6%, and ROIC of 10.9%. By comparison, PSN (Parsons Corporation) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 21.6x, ROIC 9.7%, cap $5.35B) and WAY (Waystar Holding Corp.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 48.3x, ROIC 3.7%, cap $5.37B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PEGA leads on earnings multiple (14.2x) while PEGA leads on capital efficiency (22.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BILI?

Per BILI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001723690), Bilibili Inc. generated $4.34B in revenue (+18.1% YoY), $170.7M in net income, and $948.7M in free cash flow against $5.89B in total assets and $682.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BILI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BILI last traded at $13.51 (+6.55% on volume of 5,620,510 shares), positioning the stock -8.10% below its 50-day simple moving average ($14.70) and -33.90% below its 200-day simple moving average ($20.44). Across its 52-week range of $12.64 to $36.40, BILI sits at the 3.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 27.5 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.5% ($12.90 to $14.12).

Direct Sub-Reports: BILI RQD Cockpit BILI 12M Forecast BILI Earnings & Move BILI Dividends & DRIP BILI Insiders & 13F BILI Whale Options BILI Profit Sankey BILI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 53/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BILI — Bilibili Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Bilibili Inc. (BILI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 53/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $13.51 (+6.55% 1D, market capitalization $5.28B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 10.9%, gross margin of 36.6%, operating margin of 3.7%, and free cash flow yield of 17.69%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.30x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.13, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.31x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Bilibili Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Technology sector, EDP Services industry. FY 2025 revenue was $4.34B, indicating scale.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Bilibili Inc. (BILI) reported $4.34B in annual revenue (up from $3.68B in FY2024, +18.1% YoY) and $170.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($3.17B revenue, $0 net income) through FY2025, BILI scaled operating cash flow to $1.02B and free cash flow to $948.7M, backed by $5.89B in total assets against $682.9M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 53/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 17.69% and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $12.64 – $36.40 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 31.4x trailing P/E and 19.3x EV/EBITDA against 3.7% operating margins and a 1.30x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists supply_chain as NONE, with no upstream or downstream links and no sector correlation data. Second-order bottlenecks and ripple effects cannot be mapped from the provided sources.

  • Key Question #1: Can BILI sustain or expand its 3.7% operating margin and 10.9% ROIC against EDP Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $4.34B and free cash flow of $948.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $682.9M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is BILI's 26.4x forward P/E multiple to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.30x)?

BILI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Bilibili Inc. (BILI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BILI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BILI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $13.51?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BILI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BILI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $15.85 (+25.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Per the RQD rating, a 17.69% FCF yield and 10.9% ROIC signal strong cash generation relative to the $5.36B market cap.

Don't sleep on BILI's setup in Technology. Per the RQD rating, a 17.69% FCF yield and 10.9% ROIC signal strong cash generation relative to the $5.36B market cap.. Beta of 1.3 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (53/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Shorting a 4/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $12.68 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Technology.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.51 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $12.68

Per the RQD rating, institutional whale flow scores only 4/20 and Beta of 1.3 with a 3.7% operating margin leaves the elevated 31.4 P/E

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short BILI above $12.68. Per the RQD rating, institutional whale flow scores only 4/20 and Beta of 1.3 with a 3.7% operating margin leaves the elevated 31.4 P/E poorly supported.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20) and FCF yield (17.69%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $36.40.

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