Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc. (BDTX) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$1.78 -4.30% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.76

Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc. (BDTX) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $102.3M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BDTX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: BDTX) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $1.78 (-4.30% 1D, market cap $102.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, BDTX ranks #399 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BDTX compare to ENGN and VYGR in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), BDTX carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.8%. By comparison, ENGN (enGene Therapeutics Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $102.5M) and VYGR (Voyager Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (15/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $106.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BDTX leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while BDTX leads on capital efficiency (10.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BDTX?
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Per BDTX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001701541), Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $22.37B in net income, and $29.6M in free cash flow against $143.0M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.76 (-0.96%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510044
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Cash (10)Whales (5)SEC (13)Macro (7)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.2% Base Target
$5 Bull$2 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE BDTX RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BDTX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BDTX SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.7% FCF Margin ($29.6M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
36
Grade E$1.77+2.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
39
Grade E$1.81-6.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
41
Grade D$1.69+5.3% Next Q
Current
44
Grade D$1.78-6.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (36) → D (44)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BDTX Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While BDTX currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.94) and Max Pain ($1.87) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $5.19.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BDTX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BDTX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$0.22 Expected Swing
$1.56 (-12.5%)Spot $1.78$2.00 (+12.5%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

BDTX Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 44/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (44/100)Model Risk Weight (56/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$0$22.37B$29.6M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$0-$69.68B-$62.3M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$0-$82.4M-$66.7M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BDTX)

  • ✓Walkthrough of BDTX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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BDTX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -34.07%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $1.86H $1.86L $1.78C $1.78VOL 520.2K
RES: $2.10SUP: $1.40SMA50: $1.94SMA200: $2.19
$4.14$3.45$2.76$2.07$1.39RES $2.10SUP $1.40$1.782026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BDTX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-4.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BDTX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BDTX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BDTX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BDTX)

Health Care Rank #399 of 1016 ⚔️ ENGN vs BDTX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (BDTX vs. ENGN, VYGR, LENZ, AVXL)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc. (BDTX) ranks #399 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #650 by equity capitalization ($102.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BDTX leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while BDTX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.8% ROIC and — gross margin. BDTX currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 44/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BDTX ACTIVE
Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc.
D 44/100 — — 10.8% -4.30% $102.3M Benchmark Subject
ENGN
enGene Therapeutics Inc.
E 34/100 — — -35.0% 0.00% $102.5M /engn-vs-bdtx →
VYGR
Voyager Therapeutics Inc.
E 15/100 — — -35.0% -2.27% $106.0M /vygr-vs-bdtx →
LENZ
LENZ Therapeutics Inc.
E 25/100 — 96.0% -27.8% -12.61% $95.8M /lenz-vs-bdtx →
AVXL
Anavex Life Sciences Corp.
E 32/100 — — -35.0% -8.46% $110.3M /avxl-vs-bdtx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001701541

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc. (BDTX) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $22.37B, operating cash flow of $29.6M, and free cash flow of $29.6M (+147.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, BDTX closed FY2025 with $143.0M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $0 $22.37B $29.6M $29.6M $143.0M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $0 -$69.68B -$62.3M -$62.3M $122.6M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $0 -$82.4M -$66.7M -$66.7M — —

3. BDTX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BDTX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: BDTX) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $1.78 (-4.30% 1D, market cap $102.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, BDTX ranks #399 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BDTX compare to ENGN and VYGR in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), BDTX carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.8%. By comparison, ENGN (enGene Therapeutics Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $102.5M) and VYGR (Voyager Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (15/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $106.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BDTX leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while BDTX leads on capital efficiency (10.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BDTX?

Per BDTX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001701541), Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $22.37B in net income, and $29.6M in free cash flow against $143.0M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BDTX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BDTX last traded at $1.78 (-4.30% on volume of 520,160 shares), positioning the stock -8.25% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.94) and -18.72% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.19). Across its 52-week range of $1.60 to $4.94, BDTX sits at the 5.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.56 to $2.00).

BDTX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is BDTX's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc. (BDTX)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is BDTX stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for BDTX, spanning a range between $1.56 and $2.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 44/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

BDTX — Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:43:51Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, BDTX scores 59 out of 100, a letter grade of C-, with the verdict "Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 10 / 20. The rating cites ROIC of 10.8% and an FCF yield of 0%. The reported free cash flow of $29.6M for FY 2025 does not translate into a positive FCF yield in the rating's calculation, which is a point an investor should reconcile before relying on this pillar.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 12 / 20. The rating labels this pillar as institutional accumulation and options positioning. The holders section contains no 13F data, so the score cannot be traced to specific filings within this source set.
  • Insider Conviction: 9 / 20. The rating references SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. No Form 4 or PTR records appear in the holders section, so this score is not independently verifiable here.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 15 / 20. The rating cites a beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity. This is the strongest pillar, indicating the rating treats the stock's market sensitivity as moderate rather than extreme.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 13 / 20. The rating cites an Altman Z-Score of 2.5, a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5. These are mid-range readings that support a cautious, not distressed, assessment.

For a prospective investor, the rating's message is that the business is not yet generating clearly positive returns on a cash-yield basis, the balance sheet is serviceable rather than strong, and the stock's risk profile is moderate. The upside case depends on the cash-generation improvement visible in the FY 2025 figures continuing, while the valuation tradeoff is that the company has no reported revenue and a market capitalization of $106.9M, leaving the valuation highly sensitive to near-term cash and operating trajectory. The rating's "Hold" verdict reflects balance between these factors rather than a directional call.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$0.0M$12.5M$22367.0MN/A$29.6M$21.0MN/A
FY 2024$0.0M$-78.8M$-69676.0MN/A$-62.3M$36.4MN/A
FY 2023$0.0M$-86.5M$-82.4MN/A$-66.7MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, operating income moved from $-86.5M in FY 2023 to $-78.8M in FY 2024 and to $12.5M in FY 2025, and FCF moved from $-66.7M to $-62.3M to $29.6M over the same periods. Gross, operating, and net margins are each reported as 0% in the market data, which is consistent with zero reported revenue. Per the market data, ROIC is 10.8%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. The FY 2025 net income figure of $22367.0M is far out of line with the $12.5M operating income and is not explained in the source data; it should be verified against the filing before being relied upon.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, six items are tagged to BDTX, each classed YELLOW under the MARKET WIRE impact label. The headlines are generic market-coverage pieces from StockInvest.us, ChartMill, Yahoo Finance UK, Moomoo, Simply Wall St, and Yahoo! Finance Canada, covering price forecasts, options chains, seasonal return charts, and cash burn commentary. None describes a specific clinical, regulatory, or transactional event. The Simply Wall St item is headlined as a cash-burn assessment, which is the only headline bearing directly on the company's financial position. Per the butterfly supply-chain graph, there are no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What is the source of the $22367.0M FY 2025 net income figure, given operating income of $12.5M, and does it reflect a one-time item?
  • What clinical, regulatory, or partnering milestones are expected, and when?
  • What is the company's debt position, since the debt field is N/A across all periods while Debt/Equity is reported as 0.5?
  • Why is EPS reported as N/A for every period, and what is the share count?
  • What institutional or insider ownership exists, given the holders section is empty?

BDTX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc. (BDTX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BDTX Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BDTX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $1.78?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BDTX 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BDTX:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $1.92 (+7.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is BDTX (C- • RQD 59/100) a Buy at $1.78?

Welcome to the BDTX (Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 59/100 (Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral) in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances). Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.44 (-19.1%)
Spot @ $1.78

Pump the brakes on BDTX — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on BDTX, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.17 (+21.9%)
Spot @ $1.78

BDTX cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on BDTX, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $1.78 (52-wk range $1.60 - $4.94), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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