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Aviat Networks Inc. (AVNW) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$19.79 -1.88% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.69

Aviat Networks Inc. (AVNW) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $259.4M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AVNW Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AVNW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Aviat Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: AVNW) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $19.79 (-1.88% 1D, market cap $259.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, AVNW ranks #341 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AVNW compare to BKTI and CRNT in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (Radio And Television Broadcasting And Communications Equipment), AVNW carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, BKTI (BK Technologies Corporation) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 20.1x, ROIC 57.6%, cap $257.2M) and CRNT (Ceragon Networks Ltd.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 4.3%, cap $188.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BKTI leads on earnings multiple (20.1x) while BKTI leads on capital efficiency (57.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVNW?
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Per AVNW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-26, CIK 0001377789), Aviat Networks Inc. generated $276.9M in revenue (-36.3% YoY), $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $659.4M in total assets and $100.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.69 (-0.53%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 2.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510050
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+
Cash (12)Whales (8)SEC (13)Macro (8)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target
$28 Bull$19 Base$15 Bear
📬 FREE AVNW RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AVNW)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AVNW SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 2.6% FCF Margin ($7.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (50.9) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
58
Grade C$20.40-5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
55
Grade C$19.38+5.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
53
Grade C-$20.46-3.3% Next Q
Current
50
Grade D$19.79-1.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (58) → D (50)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AVNW Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AVNW currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($20.05) and Max Pain ($20.78) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $28.37.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AVNW• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AVNW Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your AVNW Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $19.79: 505.3 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $14.88
$7,519
$-2,481 (-24.8%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $19.08
$9,641
$-359 (-3.6%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $28.37
$14,336
+$4,336 (+43.4%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$2074%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$2769%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$1758%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AVNW)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AVNW's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
AVNW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -12.59%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $20.71H $20.71L $19.79C $19.79VOL 259.6K
RES: $25.22SUP: $18.62SMA50: $20.05SMA200: $21.15
$24.71$21.78$18.86$15.94$13.01RES $25.22SUP $18.62$19.792026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AVNW Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AVNW Butterfly Map → + Track AVNW →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AVNW today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AVNW. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AVNW today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AVNW)

Technology Rank #341 of 714 ⚔️ BKTI vs AVNW Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (AVNW vs. BKTI, CRNT, VUZI, SATL)

Industry: Radio And Television Broadcasting And Communications Equipment (21 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Aviat Networks Inc. (AVNW) ranks #341 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #455 by equity capitalization ($259.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BKTI leads on earnings valuation at 20.1x trailing P/E, while BKTI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 57.6% ROIC and 48.8% gross margin. BKTI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with AVNW at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AVNW ACTIVE
Aviat Networks Inc.
D 50/100 — — — -1.88% $259.4M Benchmark Subject
BKTI
BK Technologies Corporation
C+ 68/100 20.1x 48.8% 57.6% -0.09% $257.2M /bkti-vs-avnw →
CRNT
Ceragon Networks Ltd.
D 47/100 — 33.8% 4.3% -2.43% $188.0M /crnt-vs-avnw →
VUZI
Vuzix Corporation
E 29/100 — -16.9% -35.0% -14.86% $179.0M /vuzi-vs-avnw →
SATL
Satellogic Inc. (Class A)
E 12/100 — — -35.0% -7.23% $510.4M /satl-vs-avnw →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-26 • CIK 0001377789

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-26), Aviat Networks Inc. (AVNW) reported GAAP revenue of $276.9M (-36.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $434.6M , and +409.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, AVNW closed FY2025 with $659.4M in total assets against $100.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: N/A).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-26 $276.9M $0 — — $659.4M $100.9M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-06-27 $434.6M $1.3M $5.7M -$7.2M $594.1M $71.1M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-06-28 $54.3M $10.8M $30.5M $30.5M — —

3. AVNW Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AVNW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Aviat Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: AVNW) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $19.79 (-1.88% 1D, market cap $259.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, AVNW ranks #341 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AVNW compare to BKTI and CRNT in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Radio And Television Broadcasting And Communications Equipment), AVNW carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, BKTI (BK Technologies Corporation) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 20.1x, ROIC 57.6%, cap $257.2M) and CRNT (Ceragon Networks Ltd.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 4.3%, cap $188.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BKTI leads on earnings multiple (20.1x) while BKTI leads on capital efficiency (57.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVNW?

Per AVNW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-26, CIK 0001377789), Aviat Networks Inc. generated $276.9M in revenue (-36.3% YoY), $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $659.4M in total assets and $100.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AVNW trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AVNW last traded at $19.79 (-1.88% on volume of 114,501 shares), positioning the stock -1.30% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.05) and -6.43% below its 200-day simple moving average ($21.15). Across its 52-week range of $13.92 to $27.02, AVNW sits at the 44.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.8% ($18.05 to $21.53).

Direct Sub-Reports: AVNW RQD Cockpit AVNW 12M Forecast AVNW Earnings & Move AVNW Dividends & DRIP AVNW Insiders & 13F AVNW Whale Options AVNW Profit Sankey AVNW News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 50/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

AVNW — Aviat Networks Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:39:36Z

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

AVNW scores 52 out of 100, equating to a letter grade of D+ and the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 (ROIC 0%; FCF yield 0%); Whale 13F Flow at 10/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction at 9/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit at 8/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 0.37). The two weakest pillars, Macro Regime Fit and Insider Conviction, indicate limited support from market-regime alignment and insider signaling. The Fundamental Cash Engine score is low because the source data reports a 0% ROIC and 0% FCF yield, meaning the current cash-generation case is not demonstrated in the rating inputs. The forensic balance sheet is the highest-scoring pillar, indicating relatively better balance-sheet metrics than cash-engine metrics. For a prospective investor, the upside case depends on improvement in cash generation and institutional or insider support, while the rating reflects weak present fundamentals. This is an analytical summary, not personalized financial advice.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Aviat Networks Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Technology sector and the Radio And Television Broadcasting And Communications Equipment industry. The profile identifies the company's market capitalization as $0.3B. Product, customer, and revenue-model details are —

Reported margins (gross, operating, net) are 0% in the market data section, and ROIC is 0%. The Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, both forensic pillar. Debt/Equity is 0.37 per the same source. Balance-sheet posture shows cash of $86.5M against debt of $100.9M in the most recent period presented.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case: The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 13/20 with Altman Z 2.5 and Piotroski F 6/9, the strongest component of the rating. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 (ROIC —, FCF yield —) and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $13.92 – $27.02 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case: ROIC and FCF yield are both 0% and the Fundamental Cash Engine pillar scores only 12/20, indicating weak cash generation. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are —

  • Key Question #1: What are current revenue and profitability figures, given the FY 2025 income statement shows — revenue and net income?
  • Key Question #2: What drives the reported 0% FCF yield and 0% ROIC, and when is positive cash generation expected?
  • Key Question #3: What does the India partnership contribute to revenue and margins, and at what scale?

AVNW Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Aviat Networks Inc. (AVNW) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AVNW Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AVNW Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $19.79?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AVNW 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AVNW:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $23.60 (+17.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 13/20 with Altman Z 2.5 and Piotroski F 6/9, the strongest component of the rating.

The street is overcomplicating Aviat Networks Inc. (AVNW). The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 13/20 with Altman Z 2.5 and Piotroski F 6/9, the strongest component of the rating.. With an RQD score of 50/100 (D) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $21.78.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

@RedlineAuditor Shorting a 8/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $20.17 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Technology.

RE RedlineAuditor Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $16.74 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $20.17

ROIC and FCF yield are both 0% and the Fundamental Cash Engine pillar scores only 12/20, indicating weak cash generation.

I respect the product at Aviat Networks Inc., but the stock at $20.17 is a different story. ROIC and FCF yield are both 0% and the Fundamental Cash Engine pillar scores only 12/20, indicating weak cash generation.. FCF yield is 0.0% and RQD sits at 50/100 (D) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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