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Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$16.65 -3.25% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.59

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 74/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (88.5% gross margin, 17% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $2.22B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AUPH Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AUPH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: AUPH) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 74/100 at a spot price of $16.65 (-3.25% 1D, market cap $2.22B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, AUPH ranks #41 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AUPH compare to XNCR and VERA in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AUPH carries a Roarable B (74/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.0x, gross margin of 88.5%, and ROIC of 16.5%. By comparison, XNCR (Xencor Inc.) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -21.3%, cap $2.22B) and VERA (Vera Therapeutics Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.23B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AUPH leads on earnings multiple (8.0x) while HRMY leads on capital efficiency (63.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AUPH?
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Per AUPH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001600620), Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc generated $283.1M in revenue (+20.4% YoY), $287.2M in net income, and $135.7M in free cash flow against $751.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.59 (-0.34%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 47.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 74/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.4% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B
025507510074
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk A-
Cash (13)Whales (11)SEC (18)Macro (15)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.2% Base Target
$21 Bull$18 Base$14 Bear
📬 FREE AUPH RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AUPH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (74/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AUPH SCORES 74/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 8.33 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
66
Grade B-$16.36+2.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
69
Grade B-$16.74+3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
71
Grade B$17.25-3.5% Next Q
Current
74
Grade B$16.65+7.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (66) → B (74)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AUPH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 74/100 (B) score, AUPH faces multiple-compression risk if 8.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 86.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($16.50) or 200D SMA ($15.67) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($17.85) toward Bear Floor ($13.65).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AUPH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AUPH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 74%NO 26%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your AUPH Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $16.65: 600.6 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $13.65
$8,198
$-1,802 (-18.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $17.85
$10,721
+$721 (+7.2%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $21.06
$12,649
+$2,649 (+26.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (34 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 23● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskOUTPERFORM$1974%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadSTRONG BUY$2069%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$1658%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (AUPH Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
AUPH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +5.58%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE
2026-11-03O $17.21H $17.21L $16.65C $16.65VOL 960.9K
RES: $17.57SUP: $15.95SMA50: $16.50SMA200: $15.67
$19.63$18.06$16.48$14.91$13.33RES $17.57SUP $15.95$16.652026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AUPH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AUPH Butterfly Map → + Track AUPH →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-5.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +20.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AUPH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AUPH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AUPH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AUPH)

Health Care Rank #41 of 1015 ⚔️ XNCR vs AUPH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AUPH vs. XNCR, VERA, PRGO, HRMY)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH) ranks #41 by composite RQD confidence (74/100, grade B) and #239 by equity capitalization ($2.22B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AUPH leads on earnings valuation at 8.0x trailing P/E, while HRMY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 63.0% ROIC and 77.2% gross margin. HRMY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 86/100 (A) compared with AUPH at 74/100 (B).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AUPH ACTIVE
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc
B 74/100 8.0x 88.5% 16.5% -3.25% $2.22B Benchmark Subject
XNCR
Xencor Inc.
D 47/100 — — -21.3% +2.09% $2.22B /xncr-vs-auph →
VERA
Vera Therapeutics Inc. (Class A)
E 31/100 — — -35.0% +1.47% $2.23B /vera-vs-auph →
PRGO
Perrigo Company plc
D 49/100 — 35.1% -13.6% -0.75% $2.19B /prgo-vs-auph →
HRMY
Harmony Biosciences Holdings Inc.
A 86/100 14.2x 77.2% 63.0% +0.44% $2.26B /hrmy-vs-auph →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001600620 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH) reported GAAP revenue of $283.1M (+20.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $235.1M , and +61.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $287.2M, operating cash flow of $135.7M, and free cash flow of $135.7M (+205.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, AUPH closed FY2025 with $751.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 8.33, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $283.1M $287.2M $135.7M $135.7M $751.6M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $235.1M $5.8M $44.4M $44.4M $550.6M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $175.5M -$78.0M -$33.5M -$33.5M — —

3. AUPH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AUPH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: AUPH) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 74/100 at a spot price of $16.65 (-3.25% 1D, market cap $2.22B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, AUPH ranks #41 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AUPH compare to XNCR and VERA in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AUPH carries a Roarable B (74/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.0x, gross margin of 88.5%, and ROIC of 16.5%. By comparison, XNCR (Xencor Inc.) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -21.3%, cap $2.22B) and VERA (Vera Therapeutics Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.23B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AUPH leads on earnings multiple (8.0x) while HRMY leads on capital efficiency (63.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AUPH?

Per AUPH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001600620), Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc generated $283.1M in revenue (+20.4% YoY), $287.2M in net income, and $135.7M in free cash flow against $751.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AUPH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AUPH last traded at $16.65 (-3.25% on volume of 960,884 shares), positioning the stock +0.91% above its 50-day simple moving average ($16.50) and +6.25% above its 200-day simple moving average ($15.67). Across its 52-week range of $12.79 to $19.25, AUPH sits at the 59.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.1% ($15.63 to $17.67).

Direct Sub-Reports: AUPH RQD Cockpit AUPH 12M Forecast AUPH Earnings & Move AUPH Dividends & DRIP AUPH Insiders & 13F AUPH Whale Options AUPH Profit Sankey AUPH News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 74/100 (B) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AUPH — Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 74/100, corresponding to a B letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $16.65 (-3.25% 1D, market capitalization $2.22B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 16.5%, gross margin of 88.5%, operating margin of 37.1%, and free cash flow yield of 5.92%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (11/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (15/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 8.33, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry..3B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH) reported $283.1M in annual revenue (up from $235.1M in FY2024, +20.4% YoY) and $287.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($175.5M revenue, -$78.0M net income) through FY2025, AUPH scaled operating cash flow to $135.7M and free cash flow to $135.7M, backed by $751.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B • RQD 74/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 11/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $12.79 – $19.25 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 8.0x trailing P/E and 21.1x EV/EBITDA against 37.1% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— for upstream/downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or 2nd-order bottlenecks.

  • Key Question #1: Can AUPH sustain or expand its 37.1% operating margin and 16.5% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $283.1M and free cash flow of $135.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AUPH's 6.7x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

AUPH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AUPH Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AUPH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $16.65?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AUPH 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AUPH:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $21.31 (+28.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue grew from $175.5M to $283.1M over FY 2023–FY 2025 while operating income swung to $104.9M, supported by a strong balance-sheet

Picked up a starter position in AUPH in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $16.65. Revenue grew from $175.5M to $283.1M over FY 2023–FY 2025 while operating income swung to $104.9M, supported by a strong balance-sheet pillar of 18/20.. Trading inside a $12.79–$19.25 52-week range with 5.92% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations multiples expand this quarter.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — AUPH's 18/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $14.15 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $16.65

Valuation & margin reality check on AUPH at $16.65 before chasing here

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on AUPH: Valuation & margin reality check on AUPH at $16.65 before chasing here. At 8.0x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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