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Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$4.94 +3.56% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.96

Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $504.0M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ASTL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ASTL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Algoma Steel Group Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTL) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $4.94 (+3.56% 1D, market cap $504.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, ASTL ranks #49 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ASTL compare to IIIN and FRD in the Materials sector?
▼

Within the Materials sector (Steel/Iron Ore), ASTL carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, IIIN (Insteel Industries Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 13.7x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $550.6M) and FRD (Friedman Industries Inc.) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 15.9x, ROIC 13.7%, cap $304.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, IIIN leads on earnings multiple (13.7x) while FRD leads on capital efficiency (13.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASTL?
▼

For Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity and sector rank #49 in Materials, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.96 (+0.45%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510056
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Cash (12)Whales (12)SEC (13)Macro (10)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.8% Base Target
$6 Bull$5 Base$4 Bear
📬 FREE ASTL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ASTL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ASTL SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL Trailing 12 Months: 0.4% FCF Margin ($14.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 11 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
48
Grade D$4.29-4.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
51
Grade C-$4.11+16.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
53
Grade C-$4.80+2.9% Next Q
Current
56
Grade D+$4.94-0.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (48) → D+ (56)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ASTL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, ASTL faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($4.37) or 200D SMA ($4.44) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($4.90) toward Bear Floor ($3.82).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ASTL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ASTL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your ASTL Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $4.94: 2024.3 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $3.82
$7,733
$-2,267 (-22.7%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $4.90
$9,919
$-81 (-0.8%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $6.20
$12,551
+$2,551 (+25.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$574%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$669%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$458%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ASTL)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ASTL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ASTL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +4.66%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $4.99H $4.99L $4.77C $4.94VOL 1.03M
RES: $5.18SUP: $3.96SMA50: $4.37SMA200: $4.44
$6.07$5.37$4.68$3.99$3.29RES $5.18SUP $3.96$4.942026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ASTL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ASTL Butterfly Map → + Track ASTL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ASTL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ASTL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ASTL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ASTL)

Materials Rank #49 of 270 ⚔️ IIIN vs ASTL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (ASTL vs. IIIN, FRD, TWI, MTUS)

Industry: Steel/Iron Ore (26 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) ranks #49 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #170 by equity capitalization ($504.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, IIIN leads on earnings valuation at 13.7x trailing P/E, while FRD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.7% ROIC and — gross margin. FRD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 60/100 (C-) compared with ASTL at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ASTL ACTIVE
Algoma Steel Group Inc.
D+ 56/100 — — — +3.56% $504.0M Benchmark Subject
IIIN
Insteel Industries Inc.
D 48/100 13.7x 14.4% 11.4% +1.37% $550.6M /iiin-vs-astl →
FRD
Friedman Industries Inc.
C- 60/100 15.9x — 13.7% -1.47% $304.1M /frd-vs-astl →
TWI
Titan International Inc.
E 19/100 — 13.9% 5.3% +6.88% $300.4M /twi-vs-astl →
MTUS
Metallus Inc.
D+ 52/100 — 8.2% -0.2% +0.95% $875.4M /mtus-vs-astl →

2. ASTL Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) operates in Steel/Iron Ore (Materials) with an equity capitalization of $504.0M, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.

3. ASTL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ASTL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Algoma Steel Group Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTL) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $4.94 (+3.56% 1D, market cap $504.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, ASTL ranks #49 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ASTL compare to IIIN and FRD in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Steel/Iron Ore), ASTL carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, IIIN (Insteel Industries Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 13.7x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $550.6M) and FRD (Friedman Industries Inc.) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 15.9x, ROIC 13.7%, cap $304.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, IIIN leads on earnings multiple (13.7x) while FRD leads on capital efficiency (13.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASTL?

For Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity and sector rank #49 in Materials, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ASTL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ASTL last traded at $4.94 (+3.56% on volume of 1,325,517 shares), positioning the stock +13.04% above its 50-day simple moving average ($4.37) and +11.26% above its 200-day simple moving average ($4.44). Across its 52-week range of $3.16 to $5.90, ASTL sits at the 65.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.3% ($4.38 to $5.50).

Direct Sub-Reports: ASTL RQD Cockpit ASTL 12M Forecast ASTL Earnings & Move ASTL Dividends & DRIP ASTL Insiders & 13F ASTL Whale Options ASTL Profit Sankey ASTL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 56/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ASTL — Algoma Steel Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-11-03

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 56/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $4.94 (+3.56% 1D, market capitalization $504.0M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of —, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of N/A, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Materials sector, within the Steel/Iron Ore industry. The company has a market capitalization of $0.5B.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 56/100): Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 12/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.16 – $5.90 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The supply chain is recorded as "NONE," with an empty set of butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

  • Key Question #1: Can ASTL sustain or expand its — operating margin and — ROIC against Steel/Iron Ore peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Will free cash flow conversion (— FCF yield) strengthen balance-sheet liquidity (Altman Z-Score N/A) toward the $5.90 52-week high?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ASTL's equity valuation to Materials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ASTL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ASTL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ASTL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $4.94?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ASTL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ASTL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $6.15 (+28.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Balance-sheet metrics are the steadier element of the rating, with Altman Z 2.5, Piotroski F 6/9, and Debt/Equity 0.5.

The street is overcomplicating Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL). Balance-sheet metrics are the steadier element of the rating, with Altman Z 2.5, Piotroski F 6/9, and Debt/Equity 0.5.. With an RQD score of 56/100 (D+) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $5.15.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@SkepticalCFA Shorting a 12/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $4.77 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Materials.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.58 (-24.9%)
Spot @ $4.77

The fundamental cash engine scores 12 / 20 with ROIC at 0% and FCF yield at 0%, and insider conviction scores 9 / 20.

Careful chasing ASTL at $4.77. The fundamental cash engine scores 12 / 20 with ROIC at 0% and FCF yield at 0%, and insider conviction scores 9 / 20.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 0.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $3.58 on multiple compression.

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