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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ASPN / options
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Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$4.82 -4.55% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.77

Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 28/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $419.1M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ASPN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Aspen Aerogels Inc. (NYSE: ASPN) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $4.82 (-4.55% 1D, market cap $419.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ASPN ranks #901 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ASPN compare to ZKH and GRWG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (RETAIL: Building Materials), ASPN carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 17.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ZKH (ZKH Group Limited each representing thirty-five (35) (Class A)) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $260.6M) and GRWG (GrowGeneration Corp.) posts a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -30.1%, cap $88.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCC leads on earnings multiple (20.4x) while BCC leads on capital efficiency (7.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASPN?
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Per ASPN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001145986), Aspen Aerogels Inc. generated $271.1M in revenue (-40.1% YoY), -$389.6M in net income, and -$4.6M in free cash flow against $406.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.77 (-1.01%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510028
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (5)Whales (7)SEC (5)Macro (8)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.5% Base Target
$9 Bull$4 Base$3 Bear
📬 FREE ASPN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ASPN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (28/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ASPN SCORES 28/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+8/20 pts (29% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 42% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 44.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+7/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±10.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
36
Grade E$5.47-2.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
33
Grade E$5.33+1.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
31
Grade E$5.39-10.6% Next Q
Current
28
Grade E$4.82-10% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (36) → E (28)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ASPN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ASPN currently carries a cautious 28/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.25) and Max Pain ($5.06) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $8.64.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ASPN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ASPN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 28%NO 72%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±10.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ASPN)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for ASPN.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ASPN)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ASPN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ASPN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +24.23%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-03O $5.39H $5.39L $4.82C $4.82VOL 1.18M
RES: $9.91SUP: $5.02SMA50: $5.25SMA200: $4.69
$8.43$7.07$5.72$4.36$3.01RES $9.91SUP $5.02$4.822026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ASPN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ASPN Butterfly Map → + Track ASPN →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -40.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ASPN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ASPN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ASPN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ASPN)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #901 of 1011 ⚔️ ZKH vs ASPN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ASPN vs. ZKH, GRWG, BCC, SMJF)

Industry: RETAIL: Building Materials (17 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) ranks #901 by composite RQD confidence (28/100, grade E) and #605 by equity capitalization ($419.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BCC leads on earnings valuation at 20.4x trailing P/E, while BCC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.1% ROIC and — gross margin. BCC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 52/100 (D+) compared with ASPN at 28/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ASPN ACTIVE
Aspen Aerogels Inc.
E 28/100 — 17.0% -35.0% -4.55% $419.1M Benchmark Subject
ZKH
ZKH Group Limited each representing thirty-five (35) (Class A)
D 46/100 — — — +1.22% $260.6M /zkh-vs-aspn →
GRWG
GrowGeneration Corp.
E 28/100 — 26.8% -30.1% +0.67% $88.4M /grwg-vs-aspn →
BCC
Boise Cascade L.L.C.
D+ 52/100 20.4x — 7.1% -4.86% $2.75B /bcc-vs-aspn →
SMJF
SMJ International Holdings Inc. (Class A)
E 29/100 — 34.6% — +1.94% $42.9M /smjf-vs-aspn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001145986

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) reported GAAP revenue of $271.1M (-40.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $452.7M , and +13.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$389.6M, operating cash flow of $32.9M, and free cash flow of -$4.6M (+88.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, ASPN closed FY2025 with $406.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $271.1M -$389.6M $32.9M -$4.6M $406.7M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $452.7M $13.4M $45.5M -$40.7M $895.1M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $238.7M -$45.8M -$42.6M -$42.6M — —

3. ASPN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ASPN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Aspen Aerogels Inc. (NYSE: ASPN) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $4.82 (-4.55% 1D, market cap $419.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ASPN ranks #901 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ASPN compare to ZKH and GRWG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (RETAIL: Building Materials), ASPN carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 17.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ZKH (ZKH Group Limited each representing thirty-five (35) (Class A)) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $260.6M) and GRWG (GrowGeneration Corp.) posts a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -30.1%, cap $88.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCC leads on earnings multiple (20.4x) while BCC leads on capital efficiency (7.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASPN?

Per ASPN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001145986), Aspen Aerogels Inc. generated $271.1M in revenue (-40.1% YoY), -$389.6M in net income, and -$4.6M in free cash flow against $406.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ASPN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ASPN last traded at $4.82 (-4.55% on volume of 1,001,057 shares), positioning the stock -8.19% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.25) and +2.77% above its 200-day simple moving average ($4.69). Across its 52-week range of $2.30 to $8.23, ASPN sits at the 42.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.5% ($4.31 to $5.33).

Direct Sub-Reports: ASPN RQD Cockpit ASPN 12M Forecast ASPN Earnings & Move ASPN Dividends & DRIP ASPN Insiders & 13F ASPN Whale Options ASPN Profit Sankey ASPN News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 28/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ASPN — Aspen Aerogels Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 28/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $4.82 (-4.55% 1D, market capitalization $419.1M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of 17.0%, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of -1.02%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (3/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.20, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Aspen Aerogels Inc. Is classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the RETAIL: Building Materials industry, trading on the NYSE. The company has a market capitalization of $0.4B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) reported $271.1M in annual revenue (up from $452.7M in FY2024, -40.1% YoY) and -$389.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($238.7M revenue, -$45.8M net income) through FY2025, ASPN scaled operating cash flow to $32.9M and free cash flow to -$4.6M, backed by $406.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 28/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -1.02% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.30 – $8.23 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream supply-chain dependencies, butterfly links, or proprietary sector signals are mapped for ASPN. Sector correlations and 2nd-order bottleneck analysis therefore cannot be drawn from the source data. The investor should note that the graph's absence of mapped links means ripple effects from suppliers, customers, or peers are not quantified here.

  • Key Question #1: Can ASPN sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against RETAIL: Building Materials peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $271.1M and free cash flow of -$4.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ASPN's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ASPN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ASPN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ASPN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $4.82?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ASPN 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ASPN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $6.41 (+26.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional interest is present, with 13F flow scoring 10/20 and a passive stake above 5% disclosed by AIGH Capital Management.

Institutional interest is present, with 13F flow scoring 10/20 and a passive stake above 5% disclosed by AIGH Capital Management.. When you look under the hood at ASPN, Fundamental Cash Engine is 5/20 with 17.0% gross margins and -35.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (7/20) has been quietly accumulating below $8.23. My 12M target is $6.41.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — ASPN's 5/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.94 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $5.05

The forensic balance sheet scores 5/20 with an Altman Z of 0.2 and Piotroski F of 3/9, alongside -35% ROIC and -60% operating margin.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on ASPN: The forensic balance sheet scores 5/20 with an Altman Z of 0.2 and Piotroski F of 3/9, alongside -35% ROIC and -60% operating margin.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in RETAIL: Building Materials triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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