Why ASML Stock dropped -6.55% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$1,565.90 -6.55% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1,544.46

ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares (ASML) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $645.84B
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ASML stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares (NASDAQ: ASML) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $1,565.90 (-6.55% 1D, market cap $645.84B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, ASML ranks #114 in composite RQD confidence.

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🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ASML compare to LRCX and ETN in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), ASML carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 21.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 14.9%. By comparison, LRCX (Lam Research Corporation) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 43.7x, ROIC 25.5%, cap $317.78B) and ETN (Eaton Corporation PLC) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 37.4x, ROIC 14.5%, cap $152.92B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ASML leads on earnings multiple (21.7x) while LRCX leads on capital efficiency (25.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASML?
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For ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares (ASML), key quantitative strengths include Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. and Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs., while primary risk factors center on Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 15.4%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1,544.45 (-1.37%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 28.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510068
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk C+
Cash (12)Whales (13)SEC (16)Macro (11)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target
$2100 Bull$1636 Base$1276 Bear
📬 FREE ASML RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ASML)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ASML SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.87 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (50) create a -9 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
76
Grade B+$1,717.76-5.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
73
Grade B$1,630.84+0.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
71
Grade B$1,635.57-4.3% Next Q
Current
68
Grade C+$1,565.90+1.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B+ (76) → C+ (68)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ASML Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, ASML faces multiple-compression risk if 21.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($1,701.66) or 200D SMA ($1,600.53) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($1,636.37) toward Bear Floor ($1,276.37).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ASML• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ASML Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why ASML Stock dropped -6.55% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares (ASML) dropped -6.55% to $1565.90, trading at 59% of its 52-week range ($946.11 – $1999.96). Solid steady margins (15% return on capital), mixed timing at 22x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 59% of its 52-week range ($946.11 – $1999.96) with RSI-14 at 50 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.8% around $1565.90 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $25.8B annual free cash flow.
Live ASML Headlines & Catalysts
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Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ASML Tape Review)

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ASML // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +12.96%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $1,662.9H $1,675.7L $1,565.9C $1,565.9VOL 1.28M
RES: $1,858.3SUP: $1,535.5SMA50: $1,701.7SMA200: $1,600.5
$2,061.6$1,806.2$1,550.9$1,295.6$1,040.2RES $1,858.3SUP $1,535.5$1,565.92026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ASML Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
15.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -4.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ASML today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →
ASML → TSM Confirmed Filing
ASML is the world sole-source manufacturer of 0.33-NA and 0.55-NA (High-NA) Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography scanners required for TSMC N3 and N2 leading-edge logic nodes.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ASML today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ASML)

Technology Rank #114 of 714 ⚔️ LRCX vs ASML Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (ASML vs. LRCX, ETN, VRT, CW)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares (ASML) ranks #114 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #10 by equity capitalization ($645.84B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ASML leads on earnings valuation at 21.7x trailing P/E, while LRCX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 25.5% ROIC and 50.5% gross margin. ASML currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ASML ACTIVE
ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares
C+ 68/100 21.7x — 14.9% -6.55% $645.84B Benchmark Subject
LRCX
Lam Research Corporation
C- 59/100 43.7x 50.5% 25.5% -6.01% $317.78B /lrcx-vs-asml →
ETN
Eaton Corporation PLC
C 64/100 37.4x 37.6% 14.5% -6.03% $152.92B /etn-vs-asml →
VRT
Vertiv Holdings LLC
C 65/100 71.0x 36.3% 19.1% -5.46% $94.69B /vrt-vs-asml →
CW
Curtiss-Wright Corporation
C 62/100 37.9x 37.2% 17.1% -4.17% $18.35B /cw-vs-asml →

2. ASML Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares (ASML) operates in Industrial Machinery/Components (Technology) with an equity capitalization of $645.84B, trailing P/E of 21.7x, forward P/E of 20.2x, and EV/EBITDA of 14.9x. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of 21.1%, net profit margin of 16.4%, ROIC of 14.9%, and free cash flow yield of 3.99%, alongside an Altman Z-Score of 3.87 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.

3. ASML Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ASML stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares (NASDAQ: ASML) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $1,565.90 (-6.55% 1D, market cap $645.84B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, ASML ranks #114 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ASML compare to LRCX and ETN in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), ASML carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 21.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 14.9%. By comparison, LRCX (Lam Research Corporation) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 43.7x, ROIC 25.5%, cap $317.78B) and ETN (Eaton Corporation PLC) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 37.4x, ROIC 14.5%, cap $152.92B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ASML leads on earnings multiple (21.7x) while LRCX leads on capital efficiency (25.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASML?

For ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares (ASML), key quantitative strengths include Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. and Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs., while primary risk factors center on Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 15.4%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ASML trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ASML last traded at $1,565.90 (-6.55% on volume of 2,176,429 shares), positioning the stock -7.98% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1,701.66) and -2.16% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1,600.53). Across its 52-week range of $946.11 to $1,999.96, ASML sits at the 58.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.8% ($1,475.08 to $1,656.72).

ASML Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Why is ASML stock moving today?

Why ASML Stock dropped -6.55% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (15% return on capital), mixed timing at 22x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 68/100 (C+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ASML — ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T14:07:42Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ASML scores 68 out of 100 (letter grade C+; verdict: Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout). The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 12 / 20. The pillar is supported by ROIC of 14.9% and an FCF yield of 3.99%. Per the market data, the stock's valuation (P/E TTM of 21.7, EV/EBITDA of 14.9) sits alongside these cash-return figures, so the investor gets a mid-teens return on capital but a modest free-cash yield at the current price.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 13 / 20. The pillar reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. The source provides only the score and label; the underlying holder-level detail is not available in source data.
  • Insider Conviction: 16 / 20. The pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Per the rating, insider activity is a relative positive, though the specific transactions are not itemized in the source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 11 / 20. Beta of 1.31 indicates above-market sensitivity to broad market moves. Per the rating, sector sensitivity weighs on this pillar, which means a prospective investor should expect amplified moves in both directions during risk-off or risk-on regimes.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 16 / 20. Per the rating, the Altman Z-Score is 3.87, the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.39. These figures point to a balance sheet with limited distress risk and manageable leverage.

Taken together, the investor implications are: the upside drivers are the balance-sheet strength and insider flow; the valuation tradeoff is a 52-week range of $946.11 to $1999.96, with the current price of $1675.7 sitting well inside that band; and the weakest pillar, macro fit, means the stock's path will be tied closely to broader market and sector cycles. The "Watch for Breakout" label implies the rating treats the stock as neutral pending a clearer directional signal.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
1675.7$645.84B21.720.214.977.150%1.31$946.11 - $1999.9614.9%

Business

ASML is classified under the Technology sector and the Industrial Machinery/Components industry, and trades on NASDAQ. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the company is the sole-source manufacturer of 0.33-NA and 0.55-NA (High-NA) Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography scanners. Per the same source, these tools are required for TSMC N3 and N2 leading-edge logic nodes. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, revenue is driven by per-tool sales whose timing depends on factory acceptance cycles and TSMC fab phasing. Per the profile, the issuer has a market capitalization of $645.8B. Customer-level revenue breakdown beyond the single disclosed relationship is not available in source data.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, ASML sits upstream of TSMC as a direct supplier in the semiconductor foundry and lithography theme. The primary downstream dependency is TSMC's leading-edge node roadmap (N3, N2) and its fab-phasing decisions. The 2nd-order bottleneck the source identifies is Zeiss EUV mirror optics production and per-tool acceptance timing, which can create lumpy revenue recognition. A prospective investor should watch the EUV versus DUV bookings split and TSMC's annual capex budget, as these are the named catalysts. Sector correlation data beyond this single link is not available in source data.

Open Questions

  • What are the period-by-period revenue, operating income, net income, EPS, free cash flow, cash, and debt figures, given that the financials section is empty?
  • Why does the market data report a 0% gross margin, and what is the correct figure?
  • What analyst consensus rating and price targets apply, and how do they compare with the current price?
  • What insider Form 4 and 13F holder transactions underlie the insider and whale pillar scores?
  • What is the size and timing of TSMC's next capex budget, and how does High-NA adoption timing affect ASML's bookings?

ASML Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares (ASML) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ASML Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ASML Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $1,565.90?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ASML 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ASML:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $1,809.76 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ASML (C+ • RQD 68/100) a Buy at $1675.70?

Welcome to the ASML (ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 68/100 (Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout) in Industrial Machinery/Components. Bulls point to capital efficiency (14.9% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1,340.56 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $1,675.70

Pump the brakes on ASML — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ASML, but look at what you are paying: 21.7x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MA MacroHawk_NYC Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $1,977.33 (+18.0%)
Spot @ $1,675.70

ASML cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ASML, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Industrial Machinery/Components and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $1675.70 (52-wk range $946.11 - $1999.96), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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