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Stock Ratings / Financials / ARX / options
BWIN (48) CRVL (75) NP (64) HGTY (75) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Accelerant Holdings (Class A) (ARX) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$19.81 -0.05% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.77

Accelerant Holdings (Class A) (ARX) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $4.30B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ARX Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ARX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Accelerant Holdings (Class A) (NYSE: ARX) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $19.81 (-0.05% 1D, market cap $4.30B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ARX ranks #268 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ARX compare to BWIN and CRVL in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), ARX carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, BWIN (The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.6%, cap $4.45B) and CRVL (CorVel Corp.) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 37.6x, ROIC 29.4%, cap $4.15B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HGTY leads on earnings multiple (37.5x) while HGTY leads on capital efficiency (67.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARX?
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Per ARX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001997350), Accelerant Holdings (Class A) generated $912.9M in revenue (+51.5% YoY), $0 in net income, and $445.1M in free cash flow against $8.26B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.77 (-0.20%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 48.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510064
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C
Cash (11)Whales (15)SEC (10)Macro (16)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target
$24 Bull$20 Base$16 Bear
📬 FREE ARX RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ARX SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 99% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 66.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±1.8% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 10 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
56
Grade C$19.77-0.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
59
Grade C$19.76+0.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
61
Grade C$19.81+0% Next Q
Current
64
Grade C$19.81+1.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (56) → C (64)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ARX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, ARX faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($19.77) or 200D SMA ($15.03) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($20.34) toward Bear Floor ($15.87).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ARX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 64%NO 36%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±1.8%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ARX)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for ARX.

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FTC Disclosure: Roarable may receive partner referral compensation at no cost to you. Partner relationships never influence RQD scores.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating ARX & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on ARX
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ARX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +52.62%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $19.82H $19.82L $19.81C $19.81VOL 573.2K
RES: $19.85SUP: $8.88SMA50: $19.77SMA200: $15.03
$20.54$17.89$15.24$12.60$9.95RES $19.85SUP $8.88$19.812026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ARX Butterfly Map → + Track ARX →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +51.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARX)

Financials Rank #268 of 1097 ⚔️ BWIN vs ARX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ARX vs. BWIN, CRVL, NP, HGTY)

Industry: Specialty Insurers (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Accelerant Holdings (Class A) (ARX) ranks #268 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #300 by equity capitalization ($4.30B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HGTY leads on earnings valuation at 37.5x trailing P/E, while HGTY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 67.4% ROIC and — gross margin. CRVL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with ARX at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ARX ACTIVE
Accelerant Holdings (Class A)
C 64/100 — — — -0.05% $4.30B Benchmark Subject
BWIN
The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc.
D 48/100 — — 3.6% -0.03% $4.45B /bwin-vs-arx →
CRVL
CorVel Corp.
B 75/100 37.6x — 29.4% +1.23% $4.15B /crvl-vs-arx →
NP
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A)
C 64/100 106.4x — 28.2% +0.62% $4.03B /np-vs-arx →
HGTY
Hagerty Inc. (Class A)
B 75/100 37.5x — 67.4% +1.99% $5.64B /hgty-vs-arx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001997350 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Accelerant Holdings (Class A) (ARX) reported GAAP revenue of $912.9M (+51.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $602.6M , and +165.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $445.1M, and free cash flow of $445.1M (-43.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARX closed FY2025 with $8.26B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $912.9M $0 $445.1M $445.1M $8.26B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $602.6M $0 $785.7M $785.7M $6.09B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $344.0M $0 $290.0M $290.0M — —

3. ARX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Accelerant Holdings (Class A) (NYSE: ARX) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $19.81 (-0.05% 1D, market cap $4.30B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ARX ranks #268 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ARX compare to BWIN and CRVL in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), ARX carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, BWIN (The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.6%, cap $4.45B) and CRVL (CorVel Corp.) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 37.6x, ROIC 29.4%, cap $4.15B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HGTY leads on earnings multiple (37.5x) while HGTY leads on capital efficiency (67.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARX?

Per ARX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001997350), Accelerant Holdings (Class A) generated $912.9M in revenue (+51.5% YoY), $0 in net income, and $445.1M in free cash flow against $8.26B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ARX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARX last traded at $19.81 (-0.05% on volume of 409,716 shares), positioning the stock +0.20% above its 50-day simple moving average ($19.77) and +31.80% above its 200-day simple moving average ($15.03). Across its 52-week range of $9.18 to $19.90, ARX sits at the 99.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 66.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($19.45 to $20.17).

Direct Sub-Reports: ARX RQD Cockpit ARX 12M Forecast ARX Earnings & Move ARX Dividends & DRIP ARX Insiders & 13F ARX Whale Options ARX Profit Sankey ARX News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 64/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ARX — Accelerant Holdings (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Accelerant Holdings (Class A) (ARX) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 64/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $19.81 (-0.05% 1D, market capitalization $4.30B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of —, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 10.34%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (15/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (16/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Accelerant Holdings (Class A) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Specialty Insurers industry. Reported revenue grew from $344.0M (FY 2023) to $602.6M (FY 2024) to $912.9M (FY 2025).

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Accelerant Holdings (Class A) (ARX) reported $912.9M in annual revenue (up from $602.6M in FY2024, +51.5% YoY) and $0 in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($344.0M revenue, $0 net income) through FY2025, ARX scaled operating cash flow to $445.1M and free cash flow to $445.1M, backed by $8.26B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 64/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of 10.34% and institutional whale pillar of 15/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 15/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $9.18 – $19.90 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Specialty Insurers (Financials), ARX carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can ARX sustain or expand its — operating margin and — ROIC against Specialty Insurers peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $912.9M and free cash flow of $445.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ARX's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ARX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Accelerant Holdings (Class A) (ARX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ARX Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ARX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $19.81?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ARX 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ARX:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $25.57 (+29.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Per the RQD rating, the 10.34% FCF yield and beta-1.0 macro fit support the case that cash generation is priced attractively.

The street is overcomplicating Accelerant Holdings (Class A) (ARX). Per the RQD rating, the 10.34% FCF yield and beta-1.0 macro fit support the case that cash generation is priced attractively.. With an RQD score of 64/100 (C) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 10/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $21.41.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Shorting a 15/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $19.82 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $16.65 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $19.82

Per the RQD rating, 0% ROIC and a 3/9 Piotroski F-Score indicate weak returns and limited balance-sheet strength.

I respect the product at Accelerant Holdings (Class A), but the stock at $19.82 is a different story. Per the RQD rating, 0% ROIC and a 3/9 Piotroski F-Score indicate weak returns and limited balance-sheet strength.. FCF yield is 10.34% and RQD sits at 64/100 (C) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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