What is ARVN's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for ARVN.

Stock Ratings / Health Care / ARVN / options

CTMX (14) OCS (47) GYRE (43) CBIO (29) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Arvinas Inc. (ARVN) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$7.52 -4.33% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.45

Arvinas Inc. (ARVN) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 22/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $513.9M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ARVN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Arvinas Inc. (NASDAQ: ARVN) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 22/100 at a spot price of $7.52 (-4.33% 1D, market cap $513.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, ARVN ranks #959 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ARVN compare to CTMX and OCS in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ARVN carries a Roarable E (22/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -32.1%. By comparison, CTMX (CytomX Therapeutics Inc.) holds a E grade (14/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -20.5%, cap $509.9M) and OCS (Oculis Holding AG) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $508.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GYRE leads on earnings multiple (72.3x) while GYRE leads on capital efficiency (25.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARVN?

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Per ARVN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001655759), Arvinas Inc. generated $262.6M in revenue (-0.3% YoY), -$81.0M in net income, and -$275.7M in free cash flow against $717.9M in total assets and $400.0K in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.45 (-0.97%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (22/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-11.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-16.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARVN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (22/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ARVN SCORES 22/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+7/20 pts (32% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.8% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+7/20 pts (32% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 10% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 54.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$6.84+12% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$7.66-2.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$7.45+0.9% Next Q

Current

Grade E$7.52-11.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (15) → E (22)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ARVN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ARVN currently carries a cautious 22/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($8.04) and Max Pain ($7.90) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $15.24.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARVN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ARVN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 22%NO 78%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±9.8%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ARVN)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for ARVN.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ARVN)

✓Walkthrough of ARVN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

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ARVN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -30.24%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-03O $7.90H $7.90L $7.52C $7.52VOL 1.13M

RES: $7.96SUP: $6.48SMA50: $8.04SMA200: $9.64

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARVN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ARVN Butterfly Map → + Track ARVN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -0.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARVN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARVN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARVN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARVN)

Health Care Rank #959 of 1015 ⚔️ CTMX vs ARVN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ARVN vs. CTMX, OCS, GYRE, CBIO)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Arvinas Inc. (ARVN) ranks #959 by composite RQD confidence (22/100, grade E) and #434 by equity capitalization ($513.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GYRE leads on earnings valuation at 72.3x trailing P/E, while GYRE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 25.4% ROIC and 95.4% gross margin. OCS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 47/100 (D) compared with ARVN at 22/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ARVN ACTIVE Arvinas Inc.	E	22/100	—	—	-32.1%	-4.33%	$513.9M	Benchmark Subject
CTMX CytomX Therapeutics Inc.	E	14/100	—	—	-20.5%	-4.70%	$509.9M	/ctmx-vs-arvn →
OCS Oculis Holding AG	D	47/100	—	—	—	-6.66%	$508.7M	/ocs-vs-arvn →
GYRE Gyre Therapeutics Inc.	D-	43/100	72.3x	95.4%	25.4%	+3.84%	$507.9M	/gyre-vs-arvn →
CBIO Crescent Biopharma Inc.	E	29/100	—	—	-35.0%	-4.23%	$500.7M	/cbio-vs-arvn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001655759 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Arvinas Inc. (ARVN) reported GAAP revenue of $262.6M (-0.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $263.4M , and +234.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$81.0M, operating cash flow of -$273.8M, and free cash flow of -$275.7M (-5.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARVN closed FY2025 with $717.9M in total assets against $400.0K in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$262.6M	-$81.0M	-$273.8M	-$275.7M	$717.9M	$400.0K
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$263.4M	-$199.0M	-$259.3M	-$261.1M	$1.09B	$600.0K
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$78.5M	-$367.0M	-$347.8M	-$347.8M	—	—

3. ARVN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARVN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ARVN compare to CTMX and OCS in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARVN?

Where is ARVN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARVN last traded at $7.52 (-4.33% on volume of 1,144,417 shares), positioning the stock -6.47% below its 50-day simple moving average ($8.04) and -21.99% below its 200-day simple moving average ($9.64). Across its 52-week range of $6.74 to $14.51, ARVN sits at the 10.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.8% ($6.78 to $8.26).

Direct Sub-Reports: ARVN RQD Cockpit ARVN 12M Forecast ARVN Earnings & Move ARVN Dividends & DRIP ARVN Insiders & 13F ARVN Whale Options ARVN Profit Sankey ARVN News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 22/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ARVN — Arvinas Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Arvinas Inc. (ARVN) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 22/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $7.52 (-4.33% 1D, market capitalization $513.9M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (3/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -32.1%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -45.1%, and free cash flow yield of —.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (5/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.20, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.00x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Arvinas Inc. (ARVN) is listed on NASDAQ and classified under the Health Care sector and the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry,..5B. Per the news wire, the company is associated with a breast cancer drug that received FDA approval.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Arvinas Inc. (ARVN) reported $262.6M in annual revenue (up from $263.4M in FY2024, -0.3% YoY) and -$81.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($78.5M revenue, -$367.0M net income) through FY2025, ARVN scaled operating cash flow to -$273.8M and free cash flow to -$275.7M, backed by $717.9M in total assets against $400.0K in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 22/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 3/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $6.74 – $14.51 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -45.1% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (Health Care), ARVN carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

Key Question #1: Can ARVN sustain or expand its -45.1% operating margin and -32.1% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $262.6M and free cash flow of -$275.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $400.0K in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is ARVN's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ARVN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Arvinas Inc. (ARVN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ARVN Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 23h ago

Reasons Why Investors Should Consider Betting on Arvinas Stock

Yahoo Finance report covering Arvinas Inc. (ARVN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Stocktwits • 1d ago

ARVN Stock Jumps 10% After FDA Approves Breast Cancer Drug A Month Ahead Of Schedule

Stocktwits report covering Arvinas Inc. (ARVN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Arvinas, Inc. Estimates – NASDAQ:ARVN

TradingView report covering Arvinas Inc. (ARVN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Arvinas, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARVN) Stock Has Average Price Target of $14.55

MarketBeat report covering Arvinas Inc. (ARVN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

What To Expect From Arvinas Inc (ARVN) Q3 2026 Earnings

Yahoo Finance report covering Arvinas Inc. (ARVN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN) - What Are Brokerages Saying About This Stock?

MarketBeat report covering Arvinas Inc. (ARVN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST https://www.dars.gov.et/ • 1d ago

ARVN Q2 2026 Earnings: $2.58 EPS Smashes Estimates as Shares Edge 1.27% Lower - Buyback Announcement Report

https://www.dars.gov.et/ report covering Arvinas Inc. (ARVN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Arvinas Q3 2026 Earnings Date and Estimates

MarketBeat report covering Arvinas Inc. (ARVN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ARVN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $7.52?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ARVN 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $9.35 (+19.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Per the news wire, shares rose 10% on an FDA approval for a breast cancer drug, with a $14.55 average price target referenced by Market

Don't sleep on ARVN's setup in Health Care. Per the news wire, shares rose 10% on an FDA approval for a breast cancer drug, with a $14.55 average price target referenced by MarketBeat.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (22/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@FadeTheHype Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $6.13 (-22.0%)

Spot @ $7.86

Per the RQD rating, the cash-engine pillar scores 0/20 with ROIC of -32.1% and FCF of -$275.7M in FY 2025, and the Altman Z-Score is 0.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on ARVN: Per the RQD rating, the cash-engine pillar scores 0/20 with ROIC of -32.1% and FCF of -$275.7M in FY 2025, and the Altman Z-Score is 0.2.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations triggers a 12-15% air pocket.