What is ARKO's 12-month stock price target?

ARKO Corp. (ARKO) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $3.62 (-4.5% from $3.79), with a bull-case target of $9.2 and a bear-case floor of $2.82.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Staples / ARKO / forecast

DNUT (26) VLGEA (73) NGVC (63) GO (57) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

ARKO Corp. (ARKO) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Q: Is ARKO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates ARKO D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 48/100.

$3.79 +0.27% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.78

ARKO Corp. (ARKO) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $425.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ARKO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, ARKO Corp. (NASDAQ: ARKO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $3.79 (+0.27% 1D, market cap $425.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, ARKO ranks #84 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ARKO compare to DNUT and VLGEA in the Consumer Staples sector?

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Within the Consumer Staples sector (Food Chains), ARKO carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.6%. By comparison, DNUT (Krispy Kreme Inc.) holds a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.4%, cap $568.2M) and VLGEA (Village Super Market Inc. (Class A)) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 11.2x, ROIC 14.0%, cap $633.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VLGEA leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while NGVC leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARKO?

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Per ARKO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001823794), ARKO Corp. generated $286.4M in revenue (+8.8% YoY), $22.7M in net income, and $65.3M in free cash flow against $3.53B in total assets and $875.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.78 (-0.14%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 22.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARKO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ARKO SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (31% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 22.8% FCF Margin ($65.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$4.10-1.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$4.03-4.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$3.85-1.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D$3.79-5.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (56) → D (48)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ARKO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ARKO currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.23) and Max Pain ($3.98) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.20.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARKO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ARKO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your ARKO Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $3.79: 2638.5 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $2.82

$7,441

$-2,559 (-25.6%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $3.62

$9,551

$-449 (-4.5%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $9.20

$24,274

+$14,274 (+142.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$4	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$9	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$3	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ARKO)

✓Walkthrough of ARKO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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ARKO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -42.75%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-11-03O $3.78H $3.79L $3.78C $3.79VOL 1.43M

RES: $3.17SUP: $3.56SMA50: $4.23SMA200: $5.98

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARKO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ARKO Butterfly Map → + Track ARKO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

11.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARKO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARKO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARKO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARKO)

Consumer Staples Rank #84 of 147 ⚔️ DNUT vs ARKO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (ARKO vs. DNUT, VLGEA, NGVC, GO)

Industry: Food Chains (14 Tracked Issuers)

Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ARKO Corp. (ARKO) ranks #84 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #86 by equity capitalization ($425.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VLGEA leads on earnings valuation at 11.2x trailing P/E, while NGVC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.9% ROIC and 29.9% gross margin. VLGEA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with ARKO at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ARKO ACTIVE ARKO Corp.	D	48/100	18.6x	—	9.6%	+0.27%	$425.2M	Benchmark Subject
DNUT Krispy Kreme Inc.	E	26/100	—	—	-24.4%	+2.34%	$568.2M	/dnut-vs-arko →
VLGEA Village Super Market Inc. (Class A)	B	73/100	11.2x	28.6%	14.0%	+0.40%	$633.3M	/vlgea-vs-arko →
NGVC Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc.	C	63/100	14.1x	29.9%	24.9%	+0.74%	$661.2M	/ngvc-vs-arko →
GO Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.	D+	57/100	—	30.3%	-12.6%	+0.39%	$1.28B	/go-vs-arko →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001823794 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ARKO Corp. (ARKO) reported GAAP revenue of $286.4M (+8.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $263.3M , and -13.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $22.7M, operating cash flow of $192.6M, and free cash flow of $65.3M (-39.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARKO closed FY2025 with $3.53B in total assets against $875.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$286.4M	$22.7M	$192.6M	$65.3M	$3.53B	$875.5M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$263.3M	$20.8M	$221.9M	$107.9M	$3.62B	$868.1M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$330.4M	$34.4M	$136.1M	$136.1M	—	—

3. ARKO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARKO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ARKO compare to DNUT and VLGEA in the Consumer Staples sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARKO?

Where is ARKO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARKO last traded at $3.79 (+0.27% on volume of 1,431,002 shares), positioning the stock -10.40% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.23) and -36.62% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.98). Across its 52-week range of $3.61 to $8.76, ARKO sits at the 3.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.0% ($3.49 to $4.09).

Direct Sub-Reports: ARKO RQD Cockpit ARKO 12M Forecast ARKO Earnings & Move ARKO Dividends & DRIP ARKO Insiders & 13F ARKO Whale Options ARKO Profit Sankey ARKO News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 48/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ARKO — ARKO Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

ARKO Corp. (ARKO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 48/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $3.79 (+0.27% 1D, market capitalization $425.2M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.6%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 15.40%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 3.28x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

ARKO Corp. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Staples sector, Food Chains industry. — for products sold, customer base, or revenue model. The profile identifies a market capitalization of $0.4B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), ARKO Corp. (ARKO) reported $286.4M in annual revenue (up from $263.3M in FY2024, +8.8% YoY) and $22.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($330.4M revenue, $34.4M net income) through FY2025, ARKO scaled operating cash flow to $192.6M and free cash flow to $65.3M, backed by $3.53B in total assets against $875.5M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 48/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 15.40% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.61 – $8.76 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 18.6x trailing P/E and 4.7x EV/EBITDA against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— for upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or 2nd-order bottlenecks.

Key Question #1: Can ARKO sustain or expand its — operating margin and 9.6% ROIC against Food Chains peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $286.4M and free cash flow of $65.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $875.5M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is ARKO's 17.3x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Staples capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ARKO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for ARKO Corp. (ARKO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 22h ago

Arko Corp. (ARKO) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering ARKO Corp. (ARKO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

ARKO Corp. (ARKO) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: Here's Why

Yahoo Finance report covering ARKO Corp. (ARKO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

ARKO Corp. Estimates – NASDAQ:ARKO

TradingView report covering ARKO Corp. (ARKO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

ARKO Corp. (ARKO) Stock Dips While Market Gains: Key Facts

Yahoo Finance report covering ARKO Corp. (ARKO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

ARKO (NASDAQ:ARKO) Shares Down 6.8% - Time to Sell?

MarketBeat report covering ARKO Corp. (ARKO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE IDNFinancials • 1d ago

ARKO founder buys shares at lowest level since start of year

IDNFinancials report covering ARKO Corp. (ARKO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

3 Fuel Retail Stocks In Focus As Forecourt Deals Reset Asset Values

Simply Wall St report covering ARKO Corp. (ARKO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE https://www.siam.in/ • 1d ago

ARKO Corp. (ARKO) Edges Lower to $4.09 as Traders Watch $3.89 Support - GEX Level

https://www.siam.in/ report covering ARKO Corp. (ARKO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ARKO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $3.79?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ARKO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $4.81 (+26.9%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Per the RQD rating, the Fundamental Cash Engine shows ROIC of 9.6% and an FCF yield of 15.4%.

Per the RQD rating, the Fundamental Cash Engine shows ROIC of 9.6% and an FCF yield of 15.4%.. When you look under the hood at ARKO, Fundamental Cash Engine is 13/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 9.6% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (3/20) has been quietly accumulating below $8.76. My 12M target is $4.81.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@AlphaFlow_Cap Agree on the RQD 48/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $3.79 and keeping dry powder in case we test $3.52.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.88 (-24.0%)

Spot @ $3.79

Per the RQD rating, the Whale 13F Flow pillar scores only 3/20 and Debt/Equity is 3.28.

Per the RQD rating, the Whale 13F Flow pillar scores only 3/20 and Debt/Equity is 3.28.. Look at the math on ARKO: paying 18.6x trailing P/E for 9.6% ROIC and 0.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Food Chains demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $3.34 before getting long.