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Ardent Health Inc. (ARDT) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$11.73 -2.49% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.66

Ardent Health Inc. (ARDT) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.70B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ARDT Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ARDT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Ardent Health Inc. (NYSE: ARDT) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $11.73 (-2.49% 1D, market cap $1.70B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, ARDT ranks #84 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ARDT compare to HCSG and SNDA in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Hospital/Nursing Management), ARDT carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.5%. By comparison, HCSG (Healthcare Services Group Inc.) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 28.2x, ROIC 11.6%, cap $1.65B) and SNDA (Sonida Senior Living Inc.) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.65B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARDT leads on earnings multiple (12.8x) while MD leads on capital efficiency (33.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARDT?
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Per ARDT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001756655), Ardent Health Inc. generated $6.32B in revenue (+6.0% YoY), $135.8M in net income, and $470.5M in free cash flow against $5.29B in total assets and $1.08B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.65 (-0.64%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 7.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510069
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C
Cash (16)Whales (14)SEC (15)Macro (11)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.9% Base Target
$16 Bull$12 Base$10 Bear
📬 FREE ARDT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARDT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ARDT SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 7.4% FCF Margin ($470.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (56) create a -9 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
61
Grade C$11.69+3.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
64
Grade C+$12.12-2.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
66
Grade B-$11.83-0.8% Next Q
Current
69
Grade C+$11.73+2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ARDT Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, ARDT faces multiple-compression risk if 12.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($11.21) or 200D SMA ($10.02) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($12.31) toward Bear Floor ($9.60).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARDT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ARDT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your ARDT Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $11.73: 852.5 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $9.60
$8,184
$-1,816 (-18.2%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $12.31
$10,494
+$494 (+4.9%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $15.74
$13,419
+$3,419 (+34.2%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$1374%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$1569%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$1158%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ARDT Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
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ARDT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +17.54%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $12.30H $12.30L $11.73C $11.73VOL 380.3K
RES: $12.78SUP: $9.86SMA50: $11.21SMA200: $10.02
$12.80$11.42$10.04$8.66$7.28RES $12.78SUP $9.86$11.732026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARDT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ARDT Butterfly Map → + Track ARDT →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
3.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARDT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARDT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARDT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARDT)

Health Care Rank #84 of 1015 ⚔️ HCSG vs ARDT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ARDT vs. HCSG, SNDA, MD, BKD)

Industry: Hospital/Nursing Management (14 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ardent Health Inc. (ARDT) ranks #84 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #279 by equity capitalization ($1.70B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARDT leads on earnings valuation at 12.8x trailing P/E, while MD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.6% ROIC and — gross margin. MD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 77/100 (B+) compared with ARDT at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ARDT ACTIVE
Ardent Health Inc.
C+ 69/100 12.8x — 10.5% -2.49% $1.70B Benchmark Subject
HCSG
Healthcare Services Group Inc.
B 73/100 28.2x 13.0% 11.6% +5.06% $1.65B /hcsg-vs-ardt →
SNDA
Sonida Senior Living Inc.
E 31/100 — — — -1.25% $1.65B /snda-vs-ardt →
MD
Pediatrix Medical Group Inc.
B+ 77/100 14.3x — 33.6% +2.99% $2.33B /md-vs-ardt →
BKD
Brookdale Senior Living Inc.
E 32/100 — 26.2% 0.3% +0.48% $2.48B /bkd-vs-ardt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001756655 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ardent Health Inc. (ARDT) reported GAAP revenue of $6.32B (+6.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $5.97B , and +16.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $135.8M, operating cash flow of $470.5M, and free cash flow of $470.5M (+49.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARDT closed FY2025 with $5.29B in total assets against $1.08B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $6.32B $135.8M $470.5M $470.5M $5.29B $1.08B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $5.97B $210.3M $315.0M $315.0M $4.96B $1.09B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $5.41B $53.9M $221.7M $221.7M — —

3. ARDT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARDT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Ardent Health Inc. (NYSE: ARDT) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $11.73 (-2.49% 1D, market cap $1.70B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, ARDT ranks #84 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ARDT compare to HCSG and SNDA in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Hospital/Nursing Management), ARDT carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.5%. By comparison, HCSG (Healthcare Services Group Inc.) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 28.2x, ROIC 11.6%, cap $1.65B) and SNDA (Sonida Senior Living Inc.) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.65B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARDT leads on earnings multiple (12.8x) while MD leads on capital efficiency (33.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARDT?

Per ARDT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001756655), Ardent Health Inc. generated $6.32B in revenue (+6.0% YoY), $135.8M in net income, and $470.5M in free cash flow against $5.29B in total assets and $1.08B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ARDT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARDT last traded at $11.73 (-2.49% on volume of 368,277 shares), positioning the stock +4.64% above its 50-day simple moving average ($11.21) and +17.07% above its 200-day simple moving average ($10.02). Across its 52-week range of $7.71 to $14.99, ARDT sits at the 55.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.8% ($10.82 to $12.64).

Direct Sub-Reports: ARDT RQD Cockpit ARDT 12M Forecast ARDT Earnings & Move ARDT Dividends & DRIP ARDT Insiders & 13F ARDT Whale Options ARDT Profit Sankey ARDT News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 69/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ARDT — Ardent Health Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Ardent Health Inc. (ARDT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 69/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $11.73 (-2.49% 1D, market capitalization $1.70B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (16/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 10.5%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (14/20) + Insider Conviction (13/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.84x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Ardent Health Inc. (ARDT) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Hospital/Nursing Management industry.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Ardent Health Inc. (ARDT) reported $6.32B in annual revenue (up from $5.97B in FY2024, +6.0% YoY) and $135.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($5.41B revenue, $53.9M net income) through FY2025, ARDT scaled operating cash flow to $470.5M and free cash flow to $470.5M, backed by $5.29B in total assets against $1.08B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 69/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 16/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 14/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $7.71 – $14.99 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 12.8x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Investors should note that the RQD macro-regime pillar (11/20, beta 1.0) indicates sensitivity to sector and market conditions, which is the principal second-order channel the data supports. Specific 2nd-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the sources provided.

  • Key Question #1: Can ARDT sustain or expand its — operating margin and 10.5% ROIC against Hospital/Nursing Management peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $6.32B and free cash flow of $470.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.08B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ARDT's 11.9x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ARDT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ardent Health Inc. (ARDT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ARDT Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ARDT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $11.73?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ARDT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ARDT:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $14.56 (+21.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue grew from $5.41B in FY 2023 to $6.32B in FY 2025 while FCF rose to $470.5M, with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and Altman Z of

Revenue grew from $5.41B in FY 2023 to $6.32B in FY 2025 while FCF rose to $470.5M, with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and Altman Z of 2.5 supporting balance-sheet strength.. When you look under the hood at ARDT, Fundamental Cash Engine is 16/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 10.5% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (14/20) has been quietly accumulating below $14.99. My 12M target is $14.56.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@ForensicBear Shorting a 14/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $12.03 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Health Care.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.50 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $12.03

Net income fell from $210.3M in FY 2024 to $135.8M in FY 2025 and operating income is reported as $0.0M in every period, leaving profit

Net income fell from $210.3M in FY 2024 to $135.8M in FY 2025 and operating income is reported as $0.0M in every period, leaving profitability trajectory unclear.. Look at the math on ARDT: paying 12.8x trailing P/E for 10.5% ROIC and 0.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Hospital/Nursing Management demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $10.59 before getting long.

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