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Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (ARCT) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$9.49 -13.96% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.23

Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (ARCT) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 25/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $313.5M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ARCT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: ARCT) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 25/100 at a spot price of $9.49 (-13.96% 1D, market cap $313.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, ARCT ranks #924 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ARCT compare to ENTA and PRLD in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ARCT carries a Roarable E (25/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ENTA (Enanta Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a E grade (20/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $311.9M) and PRLD (Prelude Therapeutics Incorporated) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $309.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CYPH leads on earnings multiple (71.3x) while CYPH leads on capital efficiency (-23.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARCT?
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Per ARCT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001768224), Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. generated $82.0M in revenue (-46.1% YoY), -$65.8M in net income, and -$74.5M in free cash flow against $271.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.23 (-2.70%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (25/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510025
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (3)Whales (9)SEC (5)Macro (7)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-14.9% Base Target
$19 Bull$8 Base$6 Bear
📬 FREE ARCT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARCT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (25/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ARCT SCORES 25/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+9/20 pts (36% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+7/20 pts (28% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 32% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 45.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
33
Grade E$12.03-8.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
30
Grade E$10.98+2.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
28
Grade E$11.23-15.5% Next Q
Current
25
Grade E$9.49-10.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (33) → E (25)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ARCT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ARCT currently carries a cautious 25/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($13.52) and Max Pain ($9.96) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $18.86.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARCT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ARCT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 25%NO 75%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your ARCT Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $9.49: 1053.7 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $6.30
$6,639
$-3,361 (-33.6%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $8.08
$8,514
$-1,486 (-14.9%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $18.86
$19,874
+$9,874 (+98.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$874%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$1869%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$758%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ARCT)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ARCT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ARCT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +10.74%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $12.15H $12.15L $9.49C $9.49VOL 1.85M
RES: $22.14SUP: $3.65SMA50: $13.52SMA200: $9.04
$18.83$15.22$11.61$7.99$4.38RES $22.14SUP $3.65$9.492026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARCT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ARCT Butterfly Map → + Track ARCT →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -46.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARCT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARCT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARCT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARCT)

Health Care Rank #924 of 1016 ⚔️ ENTA vs ARCT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ARCT vs. ENTA, PRLD, TTRX, CYPH)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (ARCT) ranks #924 by composite RQD confidence (25/100, grade E) and #510 by equity capitalization ($313.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CYPH leads on earnings valuation at 71.3x trailing P/E, while CYPH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -23.3% ROIC and — gross margin. CYPH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 42/100 (D-) compared with ARCT at 25/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ARCT ACTIVE
Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc.
E 25/100 — — -35.0% -13.96% $313.5M Benchmark Subject
ENTA
Enanta Pharmaceuticals Inc.
E 20/100 — — -35.0% -2.61% $311.9M /enta-vs-arct →
PRLD
Prelude Therapeutics Incorporated
E 33/100 — — -35.0% -1.03% $309.6M /prld-vs-arct →
TTRX
Turn Therapeutics Inc.
D- 38/100 — — -28.3% -7.48% $318.5M /ttrx-vs-arct →
CYPH
Cypherpunk Technologies Inc.
D- 42/100 71.3x — -23.3% -20.80% $321.1M /cyph-vs-arct →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001768224

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (ARCT) reported GAAP revenue of $82.0M (-46.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $152.3M , and -50.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$65.8M, operating cash flow of -$74.3M, and free cash flow of -$74.5M (-23.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARCT closed FY2025 with $271.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.25, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $82.0M -$65.8M -$74.3M -$74.5M $271.1M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $152.3M -$80.9M -$59.7M -$60.4M $344.1M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $166.8M -$29.7M -$18.1M -$18.1M — —

3. ARCT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARCT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: ARCT) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 25/100 at a spot price of $9.49 (-13.96% 1D, market cap $313.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, ARCT ranks #924 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ARCT compare to ENTA and PRLD in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ARCT carries a Roarable E (25/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ENTA (Enanta Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a E grade (20/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $311.9M) and PRLD (Prelude Therapeutics Incorporated) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $309.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CYPH leads on earnings multiple (71.3x) while CYPH leads on capital efficiency (-23.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARCT?

Per ARCT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001768224), Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. generated $82.0M in revenue (-46.1% YoY), -$65.8M in net income, and -$74.5M in free cash flow against $271.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ARCT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARCT last traded at $9.49 (-13.96% on volume of 796,248 shares), positioning the stock -29.81% below its 50-day simple moving average ($13.52) and +4.98% above its 200-day simple moving average ($9.04). Across its 52-week range of $5.50 to $17.96, ARCT sits at the 32.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($8.30 to $10.68).

Direct Sub-Reports: ARCT RQD Cockpit ARCT 12M Forecast ARCT Earnings & Move ARCT Dividends & DRIP ARCT Insiders & 13F ARCT Whale Options ARCT Profit Sankey ARCT News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 25/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ARCT — Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (ARCT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 25/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $9.49 (-13.96% 1D, market capitalization $313.5M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (3/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of -21.57%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (3/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.25, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector and the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. The profile does not describe the company's products, customers, or revenue model. Reported revenue in the SEC financials was $82.0M for FY 2025, $152.3M for FY 2024, and $166.8M for FY 2023. — for the specific sources of revenue.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (ARCT) reported $82.0M in annual revenue (up from $152.3M in FY2024, -46.1% YoY) and -$65.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($166.8M revenue, -$29.7M net income) through FY2025, ARCT scaled operating cash flow to -$74.3M and free cash flow to -$74.5M, backed by $271.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 25/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -21.57% and institutional whale pillar of 9/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 3/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $5.50 – $17.96 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The supply_chain field is NONE and there are no butterfly_links.

  • Key Question #1: Can ARCT sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $82.0M and free cash flow of -$74.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ARCT's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ARCT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (ARCT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ARCT Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ARCT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $9.49?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ARCT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ARCT:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $13.02 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional interest scores 9 of 20 in the RQD rating, the strongest pillar, alongside a Leerink Partners Buy headline.

Here is why I am bullish on ARCT here at $11.03: Institutional interest scores 9 of 20 in the RQD rating, the strongest pillar, alongside a Leerink Partners Buy headline.. Compare ARCT's -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against the rest of Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $10.48 are getting bought.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@BreakoutHunter Agree on the RQD 25/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $11.03 and keeping dry powder in case we test $10.26.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.27 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $11.03

ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of -21.57% place the fundamental cash engine at 1 of 20 in the RQD rating.

I respect the product at Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc., but the stock at $11.03 is a different story. ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of -21.57% place the fundamental cash engine at 1 of 20 in the RQD rating.. FCF yield is -21.57% and RQD sits at 25/100 (E) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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