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Antero Resources Corporation (AR) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$42.08 +2.14% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $42.34

Antero Resources Corporation (AR) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 75/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 10% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 75/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.7% hit rate) →
ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $12.92B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AR Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Antero Resources Corporation (NYSE: AR) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $42.08 (+2.14% 1D, market cap $12.92B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 17/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, AR ranks #12 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AR compare to RRC and SSL in the Energy sector?
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Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), AR carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.5%. By comparison, RRC (Range Resources Corporation) holds a A- grade (85/100 RQD, P/E 19.1x, ROIC 11.5%, cap $12.77B) and SSL (Sasol Ltd.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $11.15B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SM leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while SM leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AR?
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Per AR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001433270), Antero Resources Corporation generated $5.28B in revenue (+22.0% YoY), $675.0M in net income, and $1.39B in free cash flow against $13.25B in total assets and $1.40B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $42.35 (+0.63%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 26.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 75/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.7% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B
025507510075
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk B-
Cash (13)Whales (17)SEC (11)Macro (17)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.7% Base Target
$53 Bull$45 Base$35 Bear
📬 FREE AR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (75/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AR SCORES 75/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.9% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+17/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 75% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 67.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 9 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
67
Grade B-$36.63+5.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
70
Grade B$38.51+9.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
72
Grade B$42.11-0.1% Next Q
Current
75
Grade B$42.08+7.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (67) → B (75)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AR Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 75/100 (B) score, AR faces multiple-compression risk if 18.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($37.77) or 200D SMA ($36.95) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($45.30) toward Bear Floor ($34.51).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 75%NO 25%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your AR Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $42.08: 237.6 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $34.51
$8,201
$-1,799 (-18.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $45.30
$10,765
+$765 (+7.7%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $53.45
$12,702
+$2,702 (+27.0%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (43 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 32● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskOUTPERFORM$4774%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadSTRONG BUY$5069%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$4058%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (AR Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
AR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.45%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $41.20H $42.08L $41.20C $42.08VOL 5.48M
RES: $43.08SUP: $33.34SMA50: $37.77SMA200: $36.95
$43.46$40.51$37.56$34.61$31.66RES $43.08SUP $33.34$42.082026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AR Butterfly Map → + Track AR →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
12.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +22.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AR)

Energy Rank #12 of 211 ⚔️ RRC vs AR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (AR vs. RRC, SSL, VNOM, SM)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Antero Resources Corporation (AR) ranks #12 by composite RQD confidence (75/100, grade B) and #53 by equity capitalization ($12.92B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SM leads on earnings valuation at 14.5x trailing P/E, while SM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.5% ROIC and — gross margin. RRC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 85/100 (A-) compared with AR at 75/100 (B).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AR ACTIVE
Antero Resources Corporation
B 75/100 18.7x — 9.5% +2.14% $12.92B Benchmark Subject
RRC
Range Resources Corporation
A- 85/100 19.1x 93.8% 11.5% +1.37% $12.77B /rrc-vs-ar →
SSL
Sasol Ltd.
B 72/100 32.8x — 9.9% +1.24% $11.15B /ssl-vs-ar →
VNOM
Viper Energy Inc.
C 64/100 — — -1.7% +1.82% $17.13B /vnom-vs-ar →
SM
SM Energy Company
A- 82/100 14.5x — 12.5% +2.02% $9.60B /sm-vs-ar →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001433270

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Antero Resources Corporation (AR) reported GAAP revenue of $5.28B (+22.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.33B , and +12.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $675.0M, operating cash flow of $1.63B, and free cash flow of $1.39B (+112.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, AR closed FY2025 with $13.25B in total assets against $1.40B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.11, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $5.28B $675.0M $1.63B $1.39B $13.25B $1.40B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $4.33B $94.0M $849.3M $654.6M $13.01B $1.49B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $4.68B $297.0M $994.7M $784.0M $6.96B $1.63B

3. AR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Antero Resources Corporation (NYSE: AR) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $42.08 (+2.14% 1D, market cap $12.92B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 17/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, AR ranks #12 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AR compare to RRC and SSL in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), AR carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.5%. By comparison, RRC (Range Resources Corporation) holds a A- grade (85/100 RQD, P/E 19.1x, ROIC 11.5%, cap $12.77B) and SSL (Sasol Ltd.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $11.15B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SM leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while SM leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AR?

Per AR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001433270), Antero Resources Corporation generated $5.28B in revenue (+22.0% YoY), $675.0M in net income, and $1.39B in free cash flow against $13.25B in total assets and $1.40B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AR last traded at $42.08 (+2.14% on volume of 5,483,181 shares), positioning the stock +11.41% above its 50-day simple moving average ($37.77) and +13.88% above its 200-day simple moving average ($36.95). Across its 52-week range of $31.15 to $45.75, AR sits at the 74.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 67.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.9% ($39.18 to $44.98).

AR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is AR's 12-month stock price target?

Antero Resources Corporation (AR) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $45.3 (+7.7% from $42.08), with a bull-case target of $53.45 and a bear-case floor of $34.51.

Is AR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates AR B (Buy — BUY) with an RQD Confidence score of 75/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: AR RQD Cockpit AR 12M Forecast AR Earnings & Move AR Dividends & DRIP AR Insiders & 13F AR Whale Options AR Profit Sankey AR News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 75/100 (B) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

AR — Antero Resources Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:15:26Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, AR scores 76 out of 100, a letter grade of B+, with the verdict "Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13 / 20): Reflects ROIC of 9.5% and an FCF yield of 11.01%. Upside drivers here are the cash generation relative to market value; the limiting factor is that the ROIC is moderate rather than exceptional.
  • Whale 13F Flow (17 / 20): Scored for institutional accumulation and options positioning. The source does not itemize the underlying 13F holdings, so this pillar is a rating output rather than a verifiable holder list.
  • Insider Conviction (17 / 20): Scored on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The raw insider transactions are not provided in the source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit (18 / 20): Tied to Beta of 1.09 and sector sensitivity. This is the highest pillar, indicating the rating model views the stock's market sensitivity as a favorable fit for the current regime.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet (11 / 20): Reflects Altman Z 2.11, Piotroski F 8/9, and Debt/Equity 0.19. Solid on the Piotroski side, with the Altman Z-Score and the lowest pillar score signaling the most room for caution.

Taken together, the rating points to strength in cash-flow yield, institutional and insider flow signals, and macro fit, with balance-sheet quality scored lower than the other pillars. A prospective investor should weigh the valuation tradeoff: the P/E (TTM) of 18.7 compares with a forward P/E of 15.7, implying the market expects earnings growth, which is an assumption to test rather than a confirmed outcome. This is analytical context, not personalized advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
41.2$12.65B18.715.711.52.20%1.09$31.08 - $45.759.5%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$5275.8M$883.6M$675.0MN/A$1393.5MN/A$1398.0M
FY 2024$4325.6M$0.5M$94.0MN/A$654.6MN/A$1489.2M
FY 2023$4682.0M$396.2M$297.0MN/A$784.0MN/A$1628.6M

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $4325.6M in FY 2024 to $5275.8M in FY 2025, and net income moved from $94.0M to $675.0M over the same period. Per the market data, operating margin is 16.7% and net margin is 12.8%; gross margin is listed as 0%, which the source does not explain. ROIC is 9.5%. Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.11 and the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9. Debt declined across the three reported periods, from $1628.6M to $1398.0M, and the Debt/Equity ratio is 0.19. Cash balances are not available in source data.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, six items reference AR, each classified with a YELLOW light and MARKET WIRE impact label:

  • A Yahoo Finance stock-forecast report covering market action and institutional positioning.
  • A Seeking Alpha piece titled around another hedging win in the latest quarter, suggesting hedging activity as a recent theme.
  • A StockInvest.us forecast article.
  • A TradingView report noting a 17% year-to-date decline for a related energy name, Expand Energy.
  • A Yahoo Finance undervaluation analysis.
  • A TradingView listing of energy stocks in October 2026, in which AR appears.

The headlines are generic market commentary; the source does not contain their substantive content. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no proprietary signals or supply-chain links are recorded. Risk watch items cannot be confirmed beyond the presence of a 17% year-to-date decline in a related name and the recent daily price change of -2.16%.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply chain is listed as NONE and there are no butterfly links. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are not available in source data. The one sector-level observation the source supports is that the Energy sector's market sensitivity is reflected in AR's Beta of 1.09, meaning the stock has historically been modestly more volatile than the broad market per the RQD model input.

Open Questions

  • What are AR's cash balances, given that the cash field is N/A across all three reported periods?
  • Why is FY 2024 operating income only $0.5M while net income was $94.0M, and what drove the swing to $883.6M in FY 2025?
  • What is the underlying composition of the 13F institutional accumulation and insider cluster flow behind the 17/20 whale and insider pillar scores?
  • What is the gross margin of 0% reporting, and how should the margin structure be interpreted given the operating margin of 16.7%?
  • What substantive hedging and operational catalysts are described in the cited news items, beyond their headlines?

AR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Antero Resources Corporation (AR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $42.08?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $48.62 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is AR (B+ • RQD 76/100) a Buy at $41.20?

Welcome to the AR (Antero Resources Corporation) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 76/100 (Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow) in Oil & Gas Production. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RI RiskArb_Desk Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $32.14 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $41.20

Pump the brakes on AR — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on AR, but look at what you are paying: 18.7x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Antero Resources Corporation expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $51.50 (+25.0%)
Spot @ $41.20

AR cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on AR, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Oil & Gas Production and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $41.20 (52-wk range $31.08 - $45.75), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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