Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (AQN) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

AQN scores 62 out of 100, a letter grade of C, with the verdict "Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 (ROIC 3.7%; FCF yield 14.2%), Whale 13F Flow at 9/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 16/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 9/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 15/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 7/9; Debt/Equity 1.33).

For a prospective investor, the strongest pillar is insider conviction, which sits at 16/20 and is the highest-weighted signal in the rating. The cash engine is the most attractive fundamental feature, with a 14.2% FCF yield, but it is tempered by a low 3.7% ROIC, which suggests that the cash generated is not compounding efficiently on invested capital. Institutional flow (9/20) and macro regime fit (9/20) are the weakest pillars, indicating limited whale accumulation and a beta of 1.0 that means the stock moves in line with the market rather than providing defensive or asymmetric exposure. The forensic balance sheet at 15/20 supports the view that leverage and solvency metrics are serviceable but not pristine. Valuation tradeoffs are visible in the multiples: a P/E (TTM) of 23.1 and EV/EBITDA of 20.4 are elevated relative to the EPS (TTM) of 0.23, so upside depends on earnings growth or multiple stability rather than current earnings support. The overall rating reads as balanced: a cash-generative business with a meaningful dividend yield, offset by weak capital efficiency, middling macro positioning, and valuation that leaves limited margin for error. This is an analytical framing, not personalized financial advice.

Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (AQN) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Utilities sector, classified under the Electric Utilities: Central industry, profile. Specific product lines, customer segments, and revenue mix are — The profile describes the company as operating in Electric Utilities: Central with a market capitalization of $4.2B. Revenue and margin data appear in the Financial Trend section below, but the monetization model beyond the sector and industry classification is —

Per the market data, operating margin is 20.7%, net margin is 7.4%, and gross margin is 0%, with ROIC at 3.7%. The Altman Z-Score is 2.5, the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9, and Debt/Equity is 1.33, which together describe a balance sheet that is serviceable but carries meaningful leverage. Net income swung from $28.7M in FY 2023 to -$1.38B in FY 2024 before recovering to $180. Debt has remained above $6.1B across reported years, and cash is modest at $32.7M in FY 2025.

• 🐂 Primary Bull Case: Insider conviction at 16/20 and a 14.2% FCF yield with a 4.82% dividend yield point to a cash-generative business with strong insider-backed support. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 (ROIC 3.7%, FCF yield 14.20%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $4.91 – $7.11 52-week range.
• 🐻 Primary Bear Case: A 3.7% ROIC, a P/E (TTM) of 23.1, and EV/EBITDA of 20.4 leave the stock priced richly against weak capital efficiency and a 1.33 Debt/Equity. Investors must weigh 23.1x trailing P/E and 20.4x EV/EBITDA against 20.7% operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph records supply chain as NONE, with an empty set of butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the provided sources.

• Key Question #1: What drove the net loss of -$1.38B in FY 2024 and the swing to $180.8M net income in FY 2025, and are those items recurring or one-time?
• Key Question #2: Why is gross margin reported at 0%, and what cost structure underlies that figure?
• Key Question #3: What is the composition and maturity profile of the $6.17B in debt, and how is it serviced relative to the $593.6M FCF?