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Aptevo Therapeutics Inc. (APVO) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$1.35 +0.75% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.35

Aptevo Therapeutics Inc. (APVO) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 35/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $2.4M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is APVO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Aptevo Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: APVO) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $1.35 (+0.75% 1D, market cap $2.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, APVO ranks #614 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does APVO compare to HCWB and SILO in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), APVO carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, HCWB (HCW Biologics Inc.) holds a E grade (23/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.5M) and SILO (Silo Pharma Inc.) posts a E grade (18/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, APVO leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while APVO leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for APVO?
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Per APVO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001671584), Aptevo Therapeutics Inc. generated $73.7M in revenue (+7.0% YoY), -$26.0M in net income, and -$25.6M in free cash flow against $27.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.35 (-0.05%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510035
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (7)Whales (3)SEC (10)Macro (10)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.4% Base Target
$29 Bull$1 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE APVO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for APVO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (35/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY APVO SCORES 35/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (29% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 28 (OVERSOLD (<32))

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
43
Grade D$1.73-6.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
40
Grade D$1.62-21% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
38
Grade E$1.28+5.5% Next Q
Current
35
Grade D-$1.35-8.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (43) → D- (35)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a APVO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While APVO currently carries a cautious 35/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.81) and Max Pain ($1.42) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $29.48.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $APVO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “APVO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 35%NO 65%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your APVO Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $1.35: 7407.4 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $0.94
$6,963
$-3,037 (-30.4%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $1.21
$8,963
$-1,037 (-10.4%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $29.48
$218,370
+$208,370 (+2083.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$174%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$2869%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$158%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring APVO)

  • ✓Walkthrough of APVO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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APVO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -75.23%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $1.36H $1.36L $1.34C $1.35VOL 28.7K
RES: $3.46SUP: $1.23SMA50: $1.81SMA200: $4.29
$21.17$15.77$10.37$4.97$-0.43RES $3.46SUP $1.23$1.352026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

APVO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 APVO Butterfly Map → + Track APVO →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on APVO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for APVO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for APVO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (APVO)

Health Care Rank #614 of 1015 ⚔️ HCWB vs APVO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (APVO vs. HCWB, SILO, REVB, DCOY)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Aptevo Therapeutics Inc. (APVO) ranks #614 by composite RQD confidence (35/100, grade D-) and #987 by equity capitalization ($2.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, APVO leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while APVO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. REVB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 36/100 (D-) compared with APVO at 35/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
APVO ACTIVE
Aptevo Therapeutics Inc.
D- 35/100 — — -35.0% +0.75% $2.4M Benchmark Subject
HCWB
HCW Biologics Inc.
E 23/100 — 20.0% -35.0% +1.82% $2.5M /hcwb-vs-apvo →
SILO
Silo Pharma Inc.
E 18/100 — 38.6% -35.0% -1.63% $2.3M /silo-vs-apvo →
REVB
Revelation Biosciences Inc.
D- 36/100 — — -35.0% +0.50% $2.3M /revb-vs-apvo →
DCOY
Decoy Therapeutics Inc.
E 31/100 — — -35.0% -3.27% $2.6M /dcoy-vs-apvo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001671584 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Aptevo Therapeutics Inc. (APVO) reported GAAP revenue of $73.7M (+7.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $68.9M , and -8.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$26.0M, operating cash flow of -$25.6M, and free cash flow of -$25.6M (-7.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, APVO closed FY2025 with $27.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $73.7M -$26.0M -$25.6M -$25.6M $27.2M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $68.9M -$24.1M -$23.8M -$23.8M $15.6M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $80.9M -$17.4M -$11.7M -$11.7M — —

3. APVO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is APVO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Aptevo Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: APVO) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $1.35 (+0.75% 1D, market cap $2.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, APVO ranks #614 in composite RQD confidence.

How does APVO compare to HCWB and SILO in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), APVO carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, HCWB (HCW Biologics Inc.) holds a E grade (23/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.5M) and SILO (Silo Pharma Inc.) posts a E grade (18/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, APVO leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while APVO leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for APVO?

Per APVO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001671584), Aptevo Therapeutics Inc. generated $73.7M in revenue (+7.0% YoY), -$26.0M in net income, and -$25.6M in free cash flow against $27.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is APVO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

APVO last traded at $1.35 (+0.75% on volume of 23,050 shares), positioning the stock -25.41% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.81) and -68.53% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.29). Across its 52-week range of $1.25 to $28.08, APVO sits at the 0.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 28.0 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.18 to $1.52).

Direct Sub-Reports: APVO RQD Cockpit APVO 12M Forecast APVO Earnings & Move APVO Dividends & DRIP APVO Insiders & 13F APVO Whale Options APVO Profit Sankey APVO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 35/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

APVO — Aptevo Therapeutics Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Aptevo Therapeutics Inc. (APVO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 35/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $1.35 (+0.75% 1D, market capitalization $2.4M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Aptevo Therapeutics Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry,. Reported revenue for FY 2025, FY 2024, and FY 2023 is — in each period, indicating no reported revenue in the supplied periods.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Aptevo Therapeutics Inc. (APVO) reported $73.7M in annual revenue (up from $68.9M in FY2024, +7.0% YoY) and -$26.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($80.9M revenue, -$17.4M net income) through FY2025, APVO scaled operating cash flow to -$25.6M and free cash flow to -$25.6M, backed by $27.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 35/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.25 – $28.08 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (Health Care), APVO carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can APVO sustain or expand its — operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $73.7M and free cash flow of -$25.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is APVO's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

APVO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Aptevo Therapeutics Inc. (APVO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to APVO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

APVO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $1.35?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON APVO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on APVO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $1.66 (+23.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Reported cash rose from $8.7M in FY 2024 to $21.6M in FY 2025, per the SEC financials.

Here is why I am bullish on APVO here at $1.34: Reported cash rose from $8.7M in FY 2024 to $21.6M in FY 2025, per the SEC financials.. Compare APVO's 0.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against the rest of Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $1.27 are getting bought.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

@ShortSeller_Dan Shorting a 3/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $1.34 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Health Care.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.13 (-15.7%)
Spot @ $1.34

The RQD rating shows ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of 0%, alongside a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9.

I respect the product at Aptevo Therapeutics Inc., but the stock at $1.34 is a different story. The RQD rating shows ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of 0%, alongside a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9.. FCF yield is 0.0% and RQD sits at 35/100 (D-) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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