Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±10.2% Move

AMR scores 43 out of 100, grading D- with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 (ROIC -4.1%; FCF yield 7.06%); Whale 13F Flow at 4/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction at 9/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit at 8/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet at 10/20 (Altman Z 4.18; Piotroski F 4/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). The weakest pillar is Whale 13F Flow, and the strongest relative pillar is the Fundamental Cash Engine, which pairs negative ROIC with a positive FCF yield. For a prospective investor, the rating points to a mixed picture: the cash-flow yield and balance-sheet metrics provide some support, but negative returns on capital, weak institutional flow, and a sub-50 composite score weigh against the stock today.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Energy sector and Coal Mining industry. The profile does not describe the company's products, customers, or revenue model beyond its sector classification. The company reported revenue of $2.12B for FY 2025, which indicates a substantial operating business.

Revenue declined in each reported period, from $3.46B in FY 2023 to $2.12B in FY 2025, and the company moved from positive operating and net income to losses in FY 2025. Per the market data, the gross margin is 0%, the operating margin is -2.9%, the net margin is -2.9%, and ROIC is -4.1%. The Altman Z-Score is 4.18, the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Cash declined from $481.6M in FY 2024 to $366.0M in FY 2025, and FCF also declined over the same period.

• 🐂 Primary Bull Case: The FCF yield of 7.06% and Altman Z-Score of 4.18 suggest the company still generates cash and carries balance-sheet strength despite recent losses. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 (ROIC -4.1%, FCF yield 7.06%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $133.64 – $253.82 52-week range.
• 🐻 Primary Bear Case: Revenue fell from $3.46B in FY 2023 to $2.12B in FY 2025, with net income swinging to -$61.7M and ROIC at -4.1%. Investors must weigh current valuation against -2.9% operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks are identified in the source data. Investors should note that this absence reflects the limits of the available data rather than confirmation that no such dependencies exist.

• Key Question #1: What are the company's trailing and forward earnings multiples, given that P/E, EPS, and EV/EBITDA are all unavailable?
• Key Question #2: What is the debt balance behind the reported Debt/Equity of 0.5, since debt is not reported in the financial periods?
• Key Question #3: What drove the swing from FY 2024 net income of $187.6M to a FY 2025 net loss of -$61.7M?