Should I buy, hold, or sell ALRS stock right now?

Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C (Hold — HOLD) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (3% return on capital), mixed timing at 47x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is ALRS's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ALRS's 12-month base price target is $35.41 (range $27.62 to $41.78), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Financials / ALRS

SMBK (61) SPFI (69) RCBC (61) IBCP (70) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$34.63 +4.40% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $34.84

Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $826.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ALRS Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ALRS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Alerus Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: ALRS) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $34.63 (+4.40% 1D, market cap $826.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ALRS ranks #312 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ALRS compare to SMBK and SPFI in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), ALRS carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 47.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.1%. By comparison, SMBK (SmartFinancial Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 16.7x, ROIC 9.1%, cap $828.8M) and SPFI (South Plains Financial Inc.) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 14.2x, ROIC 11.8%, cap $829.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, IBCP leads on earnings multiple (12.0x) while IBCP leads on capital efficiency (13.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALRS?

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Per ALRS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000903419), Alerus Financial Corporation generated $2.20B in revenue (-0.6% YoY), $17.4M in net income, and $58.8M in free cash flow against $5.23B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 47x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $34.84 (+0.60%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 2.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ALRS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ALRS SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 8 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$30.99+1.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$31.50+2.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$32.23+7.4% Next Q

Current

Grade C$34.63+0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ALRS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, ALRS faces multiple-compression risk if 47.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 47x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($32.38) or 200D SMA ($28.90) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($35.41) toward Bear Floor ($27.62).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ALRS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ALRS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

63.130 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

4 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE99% OF RANGE

L: $21$34.63H: $35

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 12 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on ALRS

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (60)

3.1% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 7.15% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (63)

26/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 12/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ALRS

✓Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Priced at 47x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ALRS Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ALRS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +30.24%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-11-03O $33.03H $34.63L $33.03C $34.63VOL 180.4K

RES: $32.25SUP: $30.44SMA50: $32.38SMA200: $28.90

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ALRS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ALRS Butterfly Map → + Track ALRS →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

34.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -0.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ALRS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ALRS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ALRS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ALRS)

Financials Rank #312 of 1097 ⚔️ SMBK vs ALRS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ALRS vs. SMBK, SPFI, RCBC, IBCP)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) ranks #312 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #590 by equity capitalization ($826.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, IBCP leads on earnings valuation at 12.0x trailing P/E, while IBCP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.6% ROIC and — gross margin. IBCP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with ALRS at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ALRS ACTIVE Alerus Financial Corporation	C	63/100	47.2x	—	3.1%	+4.40%	$826.8M	Benchmark Subject
SMBK SmartFinancial Inc.	C-	61/100	16.7x	—	9.1%	+1.77%	$828.8M	/smbk-vs-alrs →
SPFI South Plains Financial Inc.	C+	69/100	14.2x	—	11.8%	+1.23%	$829.1M	/spfi-vs-alrs →
RCBC River City Bank	C-	61/100	—	—	—	+0.97%	$823.4M	/rcbc-vs-alrs →
IBCP Independent Bank Corporation	B-	70/100	12.0x	—	13.6%	+2.13%	$807.5M	/ibcp-vs-alrs →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000903419 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) reported GAAP revenue of $2.20B (-0.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.21B , and +1375.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $17.4M, operating cash flow of $67.5M, and free cash flow of $58.8M (+527.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, ALRS closed FY2025 with $5.23B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$2.20B	$17.4M	$67.5M	$58.8M	$5.23B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.21B	$17.8M	$21.7M	$9.4M	$5.26B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$148.8M	$11.7M	$26.8M	$26.8M	—	—

3. ALRS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ALRS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ALRS compare to SMBK and SPFI in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALRS?

Where is ALRS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ALRS last traded at $34.63 (+4.40% on volume of 177,117 shares), positioning the stock +6.95% above its 50-day simple moving average ($32.38) and +19.83% above its 200-day simple moving average ($28.90). Across its 52-week range of $20.75 to $34.40, ALRS sits at the 100.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.5% ($33.07 to $36.19).

Direct Sub-Reports: ALRS RQD Cockpit ALRS 12M Forecast ALRS Earnings & Move ALRS Dividends & DRIP ALRS Insiders & 13F ALRS Whale Options ALRS Profit Sankey ALRS News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 63/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ALRS — Alerus Financial Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 63/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $34.63 (+4.40% 1D, market capitalization $826.8M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 3.1%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 7.15%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (14/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) is a NASDAQ-listed operating company in the Major Banks industry (Financials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $826.8M. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 0%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 3.1% (free cash flow yield of 7.15%). Within the Major Banks peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) reported $2.20B in annual revenue (up from $2.21B in FY2024, -0.6% YoY) and $17.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($148.8M revenue, $11.7M net income) through FY2025, ALRS scaled operating cash flow to $67.5M and free cash flow to $58.8M, backed by $5.23B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 63/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 7.15% and institutional whale pillar of 14/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 14/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $20.75 – $34.40 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Priced at 47x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Investors must weigh 47.2x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Supply chain: NONE. Butterfly links: none listed. Proprietary signals: none listed. The only sector-level information is the Financials / Major Banks classification and a stated Beta of 1.0.

Key Question #1: Can ALRS sustain or expand its — operating margin and 3.1% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.20B and free cash flow of $58.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is ALRS's 43.9x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ALRS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ALRS Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 21h ago

What Alerus Financial (ALRS) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call

Yahoo Finance report covering Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Alerus Financial Corporation Estimates – NASDAQ:ALRS

TradingView report covering Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Alerus Financial Corporation 2026 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NASDAQ:ALRS) 2026-10-29

Seeking Alpha report covering Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Alerus Financial Corporation Reports Third Quarter 2026 Net Income of $19.2 Million

Yahoo Finance report covering Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE www.marketscreener.com • 1d ago

Alerus Financial Corporation Reports Earnings Results for the Third Quarter and Nine Months Ended September 30, 2026

www.marketscreener.com report covering Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Quiver Quantitative • 1d ago

Alerus Reports $19.2 Million Third-Quarter 2026 Net Income

Quiver Quantitative report covering Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Alerus: Q3 Earnings Snapshot

Yahoo Finance report covering Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Traders Daily • 1d ago

(ALRS) Volatility Zones as Tactical Triggers

Stock Traders Daily report covering Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ALRS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $34.63?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ALRS 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $38.15 (+15.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional accumulation and options positioning earn the highest pillar score (14/20) in the RQD rating, and reported Q3 2026 net in

Institutional accumulation and options positioning earn the highest pillar score (14/20) in the RQD rating, and reported Q3 2026 net income of $19.2 Million is cited across multiple news items.. When you look under the hood at ALRS, Fundamental Cash Engine is 12/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 3.1% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (14/20) has been quietly accumulating below $34.40. My 12M target is $38.15.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — ALRS's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $28.19 (-15.0%)

Spot @ $33.17

A trailing P/E of 47.2 against EPS (TTM) of 0.7, with ROIC of 3.1% and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, leaves the price resting on expectatio

Fading this rally in ALRS at $33.17. A trailing P/E of 47.2 against EPS (TTM) of 0.7, with ROIC of 3.1% and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, leaves the price resting on expectations well beyond current reported earnings power.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $33.17 (52-wk range $20.75–$34.40), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.