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Why ALEC Stock dropped -2.71% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$2.15 -2.71% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.14

Alector Inc. (ALEC) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 33/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $327.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ALEC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Alector Inc. (NASDAQ: ALEC) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 33/100 at a spot price of $2.15 (-2.71% 1D, market cap $327.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, ALEC ranks #678 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ALEC compare to XFOR and AGEN in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), ALEC carries a Roarable E (33/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, XFOR (X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $332.1M) and AGEN (Agenus Inc.) posts a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $308.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SABS leads on earnings multiple (22.1x) while SABS leads on capital efficiency (-27.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALEC?
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Per ALEC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001653087), Alector Inc. generated $21.0M in revenue (-79.1% YoY), -$143.0M in net income, and -$184.1M in free cash flow against $293.2M in total assets and $9.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.14 (-0.68%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (33/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510033
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (3)Whales (13)SEC (3)Macro (12)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-11.2% Base Target
$3 Bull$2 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE ALEC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ALEC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (33/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ALEC SCORES 33/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (39% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (36% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 63% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 59.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
25
Grade E$1.87+5.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
28
Grade E$1.97+6.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
30
Grade E$2.10+2.4% Next Q
Current
33
Grade E$2.15-8.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (25) → E (33)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ALEC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ALEC currently carries a cautious 33/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.08) and Max Pain ($2.26) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $2.90.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ALEC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ALEC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why ALEC Stock dropped -2.71% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Alector Inc. (ALEC) dropped -2.71% to $2.15, trading at 63% of its 52-week range ($1.09 – $2.76). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 63% of its 52-week range ($1.09 – $2.76) with RSI-14 at 59.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $2.15 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live ALEC Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREInvesting.com • 1d ago
Why is Alector stock surging today?

Investing.com report covering Alector Inc. (ALEC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ALEC)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ALEC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ALEC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -14.34%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $2.24H $2.24L $2.15C $2.15VOL 1.11M
RES: $2.79SUP: $1.75SMA50: $2.08SMA200: $2.03
$2.86$2.45$2.05$1.65$1.24RES $2.79SUP $1.75$2.152026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ALEC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -79.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ALEC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ALEC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ALEC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ALEC)

Health Care Rank #678 of 1015 ⚔️ XFOR vs ALEC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ALEC vs. XFOR, AGEN, KYTX, SABS)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Alector Inc. (ALEC) ranks #678 by composite RQD confidence (33/100, grade E) and #506 by equity capitalization ($327.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SABS leads on earnings valuation at 22.1x trailing P/E, while SABS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -27.4% ROIC and — gross margin. SABS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 38/100 (D-) compared with ALEC at 33/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ALEC ACTIVE
Alector Inc.
E 33/100 — — -35.0% -2.71% $327.6M Benchmark Subject
XFOR
X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc.
E 29/100 — 83.6% -35.0% 0.00% $332.1M /xfor-vs-alec →
AGEN
Agenus Inc.
E 29/100 — 96.0% -35.0% -4.53% $308.9M /agen-vs-alec →
KYTX
Kyverna Therapeutics Inc.
D- 35/100 — — -35.0% -7.94% $350.7M /kytx-vs-alec →
SABS
SAB Biotherapeutics Inc.
D- 38/100 22.1x — -27.4% -1.49% $304.8M /sabs-vs-alec →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001653087 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Alector Inc. (ALEC) reported GAAP revenue of $21.0M (-79.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $100.6M , and -78.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$143.0M, operating cash flow of -$184.0M, and free cash flow of -$184.1M (+20.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, ALEC closed FY2025 with $293.2M in total assets against $9.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $21.0M -$143.0M -$184.0M -$184.1M $293.2M $9.3M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $100.6M -$119.0M -$229.9M -$231.2M $468.3M $9.4M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $97.1M -$130.0M -$184.2M -$184.2M — —

3. ALEC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ALEC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Alector Inc. (NASDAQ: ALEC) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 33/100 at a spot price of $2.15 (-2.71% 1D, market cap $327.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, ALEC ranks #678 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ALEC compare to XFOR and AGEN in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), ALEC carries a Roarable E (33/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, XFOR (X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $332.1M) and AGEN (Agenus Inc.) posts a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $308.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SABS leads on earnings multiple (22.1x) while SABS leads on capital efficiency (-27.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALEC?

Per ALEC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001653087), Alector Inc. generated $21.0M in revenue (-79.1% YoY), -$143.0M in net income, and -$184.1M in free cash flow against $293.2M in total assets and $9.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ALEC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ALEC last traded at $2.15 (-2.71% on volume of 952,613 shares), positioning the stock +3.37% above its 50-day simple moving average ($2.08) and +5.91% above its 200-day simple moving average ($2.03). Across its 52-week range of $1.09 to $2.76, ALEC sits at the 63.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.88 to $2.42).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 33/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ALEC — Alector Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Alector Inc. (ALEC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 33/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $2.15 (-2.71% 1D, market capitalization $327.6M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (3/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (3/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.20, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.30x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Alector Inc. (ALEC) is listed on NASDAQ in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) industry. Revenue is reported in the financials, but the sources do not specify how it is generated. No supply-chain relationships are recorded.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Alector Inc. (ALEC) reported $21.0M in annual revenue (up from $100.6M in FY2024, -79.1% YoY) and -$143.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($97.1M revenue, -$130.0M net income) through FY2025, ALEC scaled operating cash flow to -$184.0M and free cash flow to -$184.1M, backed by $293.2M in total assets against $9.3M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 33/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 13/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 3/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.09 – $2.76 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies cannot be mapped from the source data. Sector correlation is limited to the Health Care classification and Beta of 1.0. The second-order risk the source data does support is financing dependence: the equity offering and the reported negative free cash flow suggest that the company's continuation relies on capital markets, so a tightening of those markets would be a ripple to watch.

  • Key Question #1: Can ALEC sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $21.0M and free cash flow of -$184.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $9.3M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ALEC's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ALEC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Alector Inc. (ALEC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ALEC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ALEC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.15?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ALEC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ALEC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.74 (+24.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Per the news wire, a TradingView report describes a 12-month price target of $3.3 implying 66% upside.

Here is why I am bullish on ALEC here at $2.21: Per the news wire, a TradingView report describes a 12-month price target of $3.3 implying 66% upside.. Compare ALEC's -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against the rest of Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances). As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $2.10 are getting bought.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@ForensicBear Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances). If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.81 (-18.1%)
Spot @ $2.21

Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score of 0.2 and Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 signal severe forensic balance-sheet risk.

Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score of 0.2 and Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 signal severe forensic balance-sheet risk.. Look at the math on ALEC: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -35.0% ROIC and -60.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $1.94 before getting long.

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