Stock Ratings / Technology / ALAB / options

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Astera Labs Inc. (ALAB) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$258.70 -10.92% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $253.12

Astera Labs Inc. (ALAB) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $44.88B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ALAB Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ALAB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Astera Labs Inc. (NASDAQ: ALAB) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $258.70 (-10.92% 1D, market cap $44.88B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, ALAB ranks #149 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ALAB compare to MCHP and UMC in the Technology sector?

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Within the Technology sector (Semiconductors), ALAB carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 75.7%, and ROIC of 3.4%. By comparison, MCHP (Microchip Technology Incorporated) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.3%, cap $42.00B) and UMC (United Microelectronics Corporation) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 21.7x, ROIC 14.9%, cap $41.99B). Among the 5-stock peer group, UMC leads on earnings multiple (21.7x) while UMC leads on capital efficiency (14.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALAB?

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Per ALAB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001736297), Astera Labs Inc. generated $852.5M in revenue (+115.1% YoY), $219.1M in net income, and $281.8M in free cash flow against $1.53B in total assets and $75.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $253.11 (-2.16%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 33.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ALAB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ALAB SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 26.00 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 33.1% FCF Margin ($281.8M FCF) & 75.7% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$300.28-3.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$290.06+2.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$297.20-13% Next Q

Current

Grade C$258.70+1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (72) → C (64)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ALAB Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, ALAB faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 73.2% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($308.00) or 200D SMA ($256.73) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($265.68) toward Bear Floor ($207.23).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ALAB• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ALAB Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 64%NO 36%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±12.5%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ALAB)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for ALAB.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating ALAB & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on ALAB
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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ALAB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +28.55%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-03O $290.4H $290.4L $258.7C $258.7VOL 7.29M

RES: $417.9SUP: $249.3SMA50: $308.0SMA200: $256.7

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ALAB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ALAB Butterfly Map → + Track ALAB →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +115.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ALAB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ALAB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ALAB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ALAB)

Technology Rank #149 of 714 ⚔️ MCHP vs ALAB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (ALAB vs. MCHP, UMC, STM, MPWR)

Industry: Semiconductors (95 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Astera Labs Inc. (ALAB) ranks #149 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #66 by equity capitalization ($44.88B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, UMC leads on earnings valuation at 21.7x trailing P/E, while UMC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.9% ROIC and — gross margin. ALAB currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ALAB ACTIVE Astera Labs Inc.	C	64/100	—	75.7%	3.4%	-10.92%	$44.88B	Benchmark Subject
MCHP Microchip Technology Incorporated	C	62/100	—	57.7%	3.3%	-4.66%	$42.00B	/mchp-vs-alab →
UMC United Microelectronics Corporation	C-	61/100	21.7x	—	14.9%	-7.54%	$41.99B	/umc-vs-alab →
STM STMicroelectronics N.V.	D+	53/100	—	33.9%	0.8%	-6.50%	$41.72B	/stm-vs-alab →
MPWR Monolithic Power Systems Inc.	C-	61/100	94.8x	55.2%	12.2%	+1.07%	$59.54B	/mpwr-vs-alab →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001736297

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Astera Labs Inc. (ALAB) reported GAAP revenue of $852.5M (+115.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $396.3M , and +636.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $219.1M, operating cash flow of $319.3M, and free cash flow of $281.8M (+175.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, ALAB closed FY2025 with $1.53B in total assets against $75.7M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 26.00, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$852.5M	$219.1M	$319.3M	$281.8M	$1.53B	$75.7M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$396.3M	-$83.4M	$136.7M	$102.4M	$1.05B	$40.4M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$115.8M	-$26.3M	-$12.7M	-$17.9M	$27.71B	$6.48B

3. ALAB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ALAB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ALAB compare to MCHP and UMC in the Technology sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALAB?

Where is ALAB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ALAB last traded at $258.70 (-10.92% on volume of 7,286,911 shares), positioning the stock -16.01% below its 50-day simple moving average ($308.00) and +0.77% above its 200-day simple moving average ($256.73). Across its 52-week range of $97.89 to $499.48, ALAB sits at the 40.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($226.36 to $291.04).

ALAB Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is ALAB's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for ALAB.

Direct Sub-Reports: ALAB RQD Cockpit ALAB 12M Forecast ALAB Earnings & Move ALAB Dividends & DRIP ALAB Insiders & 13F ALAB Whale Options ALAB Profit Sankey ALAB News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 64/100 (C) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ALAB — Astera Labs Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:11:07Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ALAB scores 68 out of 100, a letter grade of C+, with the verdict "Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20 (ROIC 3.4%; FCF yield 0.56%), Whale 13F Flow 12/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction 10/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit 14/20 (Beta 1.34; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet 18/20 (Altman Z 26; Piotroski F 9/9; Debt/Equity 0.05). The strongest pillar is the balance sheet, which points to low financial-distress risk. The weakest is insider conviction, which suggests limited insider-level signaling in the source data. The cash-engine pillar is the key valuation tradeoff: a 0.56% FCF yield and 3.4% ROIC, measured against a $50.39B market cap and an EV/EBITDA of 95, indicate that the current price embeds substantial expectations for future growth. Upside depends on that growth materializing; the "Watch for Breakout" framing reflects that the rating is neutral pending confirmation. Beta of 1.34 implies above-market sensitivity to broad moves. This is an analytical framework, not personalized advice.

Business

Astera Labs Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Technology sector and the Semiconductors industry, per the profile section. Per the financials, the company reported FY 2025 revenue of $852.5M, with gross margin of 75.7% per the market data. The source data does not describe specific products, customers, or revenue-generation mechanics beyond this classification.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$852.5M	$173.4M	$219.1M	N/A	$281.8M	$167.6M	$75.7M
FY 2024	$396.3M	$-116.1M	$-83.4M	N/A	$102.4M	$79.6M	$40.4M
FY 2023	$115.8M	$-29.5M	$-26.3M	N/A	$-17.9M	N/A	$6484.6M

Per the financials, revenue grew from $115.8M (FY 2023) to $396.3M (FY 2024) to $852.5M (FY 2025), and operating income moved from losses to $173.4M in FY 2025. Per the market data, net margin is 25.7% and operating margin 20.3%, with ROIC at 3.4%. The Altman Z-Score is 26 and the Piotroski F-Score is 9/9, per the RQD forensic pillar, with Debt/Equity of 0.05. The FY 2023 debt figure of $6484.6M is inconsistent with the other periods and is flagged under Open Questions.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news section, six headlines are on file, all tied to ALAB. Headlines reference the Aries 7 product nearing sampling, an article suggesting overvaluation, a comparison against Arm, a 7% single-day rally, a 6.58% move on Oct 6, a Seeking Alpha piece titled around "Two Assumptions," and a Benzinga report on a Tuesday surge. Light signals are mixed: three YELLOW (market wire) and three GREEN (catalyst). Risk watch items include overvaluation framing in the headlines and the 95 EV/EBITDA level in market data. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph contains no links or proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply_chain is "NONE" and no butterfly links or proprietary signals are present. Upstream and downstream dependencies cannot be mapped from source data. Not available in source data for sector correlation or 2nd-order bottlenecks beyond the sector and industry classification.

Open Questions

What are the TTM EPS and forward earnings figures needed to assess the 95 EV/EBITDA multiple?
Why does the FY 2023 debt figure ($6484.6M) differ so sharply from FY 2024 ($40.4M) and FY 2025 ($75.7M), and is it a data error?
What specific institutional 13F and insider transactions underlie the whale and insider pillar scores?
What is the company's product and customer mix, and how much of revenue depends on the Aries 7 product timing?
What supply-chain relationships exist, given the Butterfly graph returns no links?

ALAB Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Astera Labs Inc. (ALAB) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ALAB Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 16h ago

Astera Labs (ALAB) Stock Could Be 29% Overvalued As Aries 7 Nears Sampling

Yahoo Finance report covering Astera Labs Inc. (ALAB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Motley Fool • 19h ago

Astera Labs vs. Arm: Which Semiconductor Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?

The Motley Fool report covering Astera Labs Inc. (ALAB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Techi • 22h ago

ALAB Stock Jumps 7%—Why Astera Labs Is Rallying Today

Techi report covering Astera Labs Inc. (ALAB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingKey • 1d ago

Astera Labs Inc Stock (ALAB) Moved Up by 6.58% on Oct 6: Drivers Behind the Movement

TradingKey report covering Astera Labs Inc. (ALAB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Astera Labs: Two Assumptions, Not Much Record

Seeking Alpha report covering Astera Labs Inc. (ALAB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 1d ago

Why Is Astera Labs Stock Surging on Tuesday? - Astera Labs (NASDAQ:ALAB)

Benzinga report covering Astera Labs Inc. (ALAB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Trefis • 1d ago

Was There Any Sign Astera Labs Stock Would Run?

Trefis report covering Astera Labs Inc. (ALAB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Astera Labs (ALAB): Is the AI-Connectivity Competitor Ready for the S&P 500?

Yahoo Finance report covering Astera Labs Inc. (ALAB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ALAB Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $258.70?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ALAB 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $313.66 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ALAB (C+ • RQD 68/100) a Buy at $290.43?

Welcome to the ALAB (Astera Labs Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 68/100 (Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout) in Semiconductors. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $243.96 (-16.0%)

Spot @ $290.43

Pump the brakes on ALAB — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ALAB, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 75.7% gross margins. Unless Astera Labs Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

CA CashFlowKing Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $331.09 (+14.0%)

Spot @ $290.43

ALAB cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ALAB, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Semiconductors and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $290.43 (52-wk range $97.89 - $499.48), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.