Stock Ratings / Financials / AJG / options

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Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$276.07 +2.93% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $278.19

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 5% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $70.76B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AJG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AJG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (NYSE: AJG) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $276.07 (+2.93% 1D, market cap $70.76B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 19/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, AJG ranks #92 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AJG compare to AON and MRSH in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), AJG carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 46.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.3%. By comparison, AON (Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A)) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 18.5x, ROIC 15.0%, cap $68.24B) and MRSH (Marsh) posts a A- grade (81/100 RQD, P/E 22.5x, ROIC 10.6%, cap $95.40B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AON leads on earnings multiple (18.5x) while WTW leads on capital efficiency (16.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AJG?

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Per AJG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000354190), Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. generated $13.94B in revenue (+20.7% YoY), $1.49B in net income, and $1.30B in free cash flow against $70.67B in total assets and $12.10B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 46x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $278.20 (+0.77%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 9.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AJG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (70/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AJG SCORES 70/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+19/20 pts (27% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.8% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 9 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$237.04+9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$258.37+0.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$260.42+6% Next Q

Current

Grade B-$276.07+6.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (62) → B- (70)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AJG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, AJG faces multiple-compression risk if 46.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 46x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($248.53) or 200D SMA ($232.27) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($290.98) toward Bear Floor ($226.38).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AJG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AJG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 70%NO 30%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±5.8%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (AJG)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for AJG.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating AJG & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on AJG
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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AJG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +33.35%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $268.2H $276.1L $268.2C $276.1VOL 3.19M

RES: $277.8SUP: $210.4SMA50: $248.5SMA200: $232.3

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AJG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AJG Butterfly Map → + Track AJG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

34.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +20.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AJG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AJG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AJG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AJG)

Financials Rank #92 of 1096 ⚔️ AON vs AJG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (AJG vs. AON, MRSH, WTW, BRO)

Industry: Specialty Insurers (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) ranks #92 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #50 by equity capitalization ($70.76B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AON leads on earnings valuation at 18.5x trailing P/E, while WTW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.6% ROIC and — gross margin. MRSH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 81/100 (A-) compared with AJG at 70/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AJG ACTIVE Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.	B-	70/100	46.0x	—	5.3%	+2.93%	$70.76B	Benchmark Subject
AON Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A)	C+	69/100	18.5x	—	15.0%	+0.01%	$68.24B	/aon-vs-ajg →
MRSH Marsh	A-	81/100	22.5x	—	10.6%	+1.82%	$95.40B	/mrsh-vs-ajg →
WTW Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company	B	74/100	18.6x	—	16.6%	+1.15%	$29.92B	/wtw-vs-ajg →
BRO Brown & Brown Inc.	B+	76/100	21.3x	—	4.7%	+2.83%	$23.14B	/bro-vs-ajg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000354190

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) reported GAAP revenue of $13.94B (+20.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $11.55B , and +38.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.49B, operating cash flow of $1.93B, and free cash flow of $1.30B (-36.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, AJG closed FY2025 with $70.67B in total assets against $12.10B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$13.94B	$1.49B	$1.93B	$1.30B	$70.67B	$12.10B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$11.55B	$1.46B	$2.58B	$2.06B	$64.25B	$12.73B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$10.07B	$970.0M	$2.03B	$1.58B	$37.81B	$8.85B

3. AJG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AJG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does AJG compare to AON and MRSH in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AJG?

Where is AJG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AJG last traded at $276.07 (+2.93% on volume of 3,191,365 shares), positioning the stock +11.08% above its 50-day simple moving average ($248.53) and +18.86% above its 200-day simple moving average ($232.27). Across its 52-week range of $190.75 to $277.45, AJG sits at the 98.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 66.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.8% ($260.06 to $292.08).

AJG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is AJG's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for AJG.

Direct Sub-Reports: AJG RQD Cockpit AJG 12M Forecast AJG Earnings & Move AJG Dividends & DRIP AJG Insiders & 13F AJG Whale Options AJG Profit Sankey AJG News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 70/100 (B-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

AJG — Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:10:34Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, AJG scores 69 out of 100 (letter grade C+; verdict "Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout"). The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20 (ROIC 5.3%; FCF yield 1.89%); Whale 13F Flow 18/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction 11/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit 14/20 (Beta 1; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet 15/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 9/9; Debt/Equity 0.5).

For a prospective investor, the pattern is mixed. The strongest pillar is institutional flow, which is the largest contributor to the score. The weakest contributions come from the cash-generation and insider-conviction pillars, where the cited returns and flow data are modest. The forensic balance-sheet pillar supports the case for financial stability, while the Macro Regime Fit pillar reflects a beta of 1, meaning the stock is in line with overall market volatility as reported in the source data. Per the market data, valuation is elevated: trailing P/E of 46, forward P/E of 38.6, and EV/EBITDA of 30.7 imply that much of the expected performance is already reflected in the price. The verdict's "Watch for Breakout" language signals that the rating is neutral and contingent on future confirmation rather than an endorsement of the current price.

Snapshot

Metric	Value
Price	268.2
Market Cap	$68.74B
P/E (TTM)	46
Forward P/E	38.6
EV/EBITDA	30.7
EPS (TTM)	5.83
Dividend Yield	0.97%
Beta	1
52-Wk Range	$190.75 - $277.45
ROIC %	5.3%

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news wire, six items reference AJG: a Yahoo Finance piece on Q2 earnings relative to insurance brokers (YELLOW, market wire); a GuruFocus report on a 5.5% share surge (GREEN, catalyst); a StockInvest.us price forecast (YELLOW, market wire); a Globe and Mail analyst-insights piece (YELLOW, market wire); a TradingView preview of the earnings season (YELLOW, market wire); and a Benzinga ten-year return piece (YELLOW, market wire). The GREEN-flagged GuruFocus item is the only catalyst-tagged entry; the remaining items are classified as market wire. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no supply-chain links or proprietary signals are recorded. The surge reference is a headline-level observation; the source data does not provide the underlying drivers.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply chain status is NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Not available in source data for upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks.

Open Questions

What drove the 5.5% share surge referenced in the news wire, and is it tied to earnings or to a sector-wide move?
Why is EPS (TTM) of 5.83 so far below what the trailing P/E of 46 would imply in the source data, and what is the reported EPS for each fiscal year?
What are cash balances for each period, since the cash field is populated as N/A?
What is the underlying business mix and revenue model driving growth from $10072.0M to $13942.0M?
What do analyst consensus ratings and price targets look like, and are any insider or 13F holdings reported?

AJG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AJG Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 17h ago

Q2 Earnings Highlights: Arthur J. Gallagher (NYSE:AJG) Vs The Rest Of The Insurance Brokers Stocks

Yahoo Finance report covering Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST GuruFocus • 20h ago

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co (AJG) Shares Surge 5.5% -- What GF Scor

GuruFocus report covering Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE StockInvest.us • 23h ago

Arthur J Gallagher & Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy AJG?

StockInvest.us report covering Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Globe and Mail • 1d ago

Analysts Offer Insights on Financial Companies: UBS Group AG (UBS), Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG) and Robinhood (HOOD)

The Globe and Mail report covering Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

What to Expect From These 3 Insurance Brokers This Earnings Season?

TradingView report covering Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 1d ago

Here’s How Much You Would Have Made Owning Arthur J. Gallagher Stock In The Last 10 Years

Benzinga report covering Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

What Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call

Yahoo Finance report covering Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST GuruFocus • 1d ago

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co (AJG) Shares Surge 4.9% -- What GF Scor

GuruFocus report covering Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AJG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $276.07?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AJG 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $289.66 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is AJG (C+ • RQD 69/100) a Buy at $268.20?

Welcome to the AJG (Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 69/100 (Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout) in Specialty Insurers. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (46.0x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $222.61 (-17.0%)

Spot @ $268.20

Pump the brakes on AJG — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on AJG, but look at what you are paying: 46.0x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

DE DeltaGamma_99 Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $308.43 (+15.0%)

Spot @ $268.20

AJG cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on AJG, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Specialty Insurers and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $268.20 (52-wk range $190.75 - $277.45), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.