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The AES Corporation (AES) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±1.8% Move

$14.90 +0.47% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.88

The AES Corporation (AES) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 34/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $10.58B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AES Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AES stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, The AES Corporation (NYSE: AES) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 34/100 at a spot price of $14.90 (+0.47% 1D, market cap $10.58B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 116 tracked Utilities issuers, AES ranks #101 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AES compare to OGE and BEPC in the Utilities sector?
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Within the Utilities sector (Electric Utilities: Central), AES carries a Roarable E (34/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.8x, gross margin of 18.1%, and ROIC of 6.7%. By comparison, OGE (OGE Energy Corp) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 21.7x, ROIC 6.1%, cap $10.23B) and BEPC (Brookfield Renewable Corporation Brookfield Renewable Corporation Class A Subordinate Voting Shares) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $10.07B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AES leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while BEPC leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AES?
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Per AES's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000874761), The AES Corporation generated $12.23B in revenue (-0.4% YoY), $910.0M in net income, and -$1.62B in free cash flow against $51.77B in total assets and $12.11B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.88 (-0.11%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (34/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510034
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk E
Cash (8)Whales (8)SEC (5)Macro (6)CEO (7)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.8% Base Target
$19 Bull$13 Base$10 Bear
📬 FREE AES RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AES)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (34/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AES SCORES 34/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+8/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 18.1% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+8/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±1.8% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 15 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
42
Grade D$14.96+0.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
39
Grade E$14.97+0.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
37
Grade E$14.98-0.5% Next Q
Current
34
Grade E$14.90-8.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (42) → E (34)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AES Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AES currently carries a cautious 34/100 (E) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($14.89) and Max Pain ($15.65) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $18.53.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AES• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AES Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 34%NO 66%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±1.8% Swing Band

±$0.27 Expected Swing
$14.63 (-1.8%)Spot $14.90$15.17 (+1.8%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

AES Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 34/100

Trailing EPS: $1.28 • YoY Revenue Growth: -0.4%

Model Bullish Setup (34/100)Model Risk Weight (66/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$12.23B$910.0M-$1.62B18.1%
FY 20242024-12-31$12.28B$1.68B-$4.64B18.8%
FY 20232023-12-31$12.67B$249.0M$2.46B18.1%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AES)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AES's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AES // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +4.34%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $15.05H $15.05L $14.83C $14.90VOL 9.14M
RES: $15.07SUP: $14.84SMA50: $14.89SMA200: $14.78
$15.11$14.85$14.58$14.31$14.05RES $15.07SUP $14.84$14.902026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AES Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AES Butterfly Map → + Track AES →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
2.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -0.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AES today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AES. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AES today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AES)

Utilities Rank #101 of 116 ⚔️ OGE vs AES Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Utilities Peer Comparison (AES vs. OGE, BEPC, ENLT, PNW)

Industry: Electric Utilities: Central (56 Tracked Issuers)

Across 116 tracked Utilities securities in the Roarable RQD universe, The AES Corporation (AES) ranks #101 by composite RQD confidence (34/100, grade E) and #43 by equity capitalization ($10.58B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AES leads on earnings valuation at 11.8x trailing P/E, while BEPC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and — gross margin. OGE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with AES at 34/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AES ACTIVE
The AES Corporation
E 34/100 11.8x 18.1% 6.7% +0.47% $10.58B Benchmark Subject
OGE
OGE Energy Corp
C+ 69/100 21.7x 60.5% 6.1% +1.50% $10.23B /oge-vs-aes →
BEPC
Brookfield Renewable Corporation Brookfield Renewable Corporation Class A Subordinate Voting Shares
D+ 56/100 32.8x — 9.9% +4.77% $10.07B /bepc-vs-aes →
ENLT
Enlight Renewable Energy Ltd.
D 46/100 — — — +0.27% $9.25B /enlt-vs-aes →
PNW
Pinnacle West Capital Corporation
C 65/100 15.5x — 5.2% -0.31% $12.88B /pnw-vs-aes →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000874761 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), The AES Corporation (AES) reported GAAP revenue of $12.23B (-0.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $12.28B , and -3.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $910.0M, operating cash flow of $4.31B, and free cash flow of -$1.62B (+65.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, AES closed FY2025 with $51.77B in total assets against $12.11B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.54, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $12.23B $910.0M $4.31B -$1.62B $51.77B $12.11B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $12.28B $1.68B $2.75B -$4.64B $47.41B $11.09B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $12.67B $249.0M $3.03B $2.46B $15.20B $3.56B

3. AES Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AES stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, The AES Corporation (NYSE: AES) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 34/100 at a spot price of $14.90 (+0.47% 1D, market cap $10.58B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 116 tracked Utilities issuers, AES ranks #101 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AES compare to OGE and BEPC in the Utilities sector?

Within the Utilities sector (Electric Utilities: Central), AES carries a Roarable E (34/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.8x, gross margin of 18.1%, and ROIC of 6.7%. By comparison, OGE (OGE Energy Corp) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 21.7x, ROIC 6.1%, cap $10.23B) and BEPC (Brookfield Renewable Corporation Brookfield Renewable Corporation Class A Subordinate Voting Shares) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $10.07B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AES leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while BEPC leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AES?

Per AES's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000874761), The AES Corporation generated $12.23B in revenue (-0.4% YoY), $910.0M in net income, and -$1.62B in free cash flow against $51.77B in total assets and $12.11B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AES trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AES last traded at $14.90 (+0.47% on volume of 8,887,767 shares), positioning the stock +0.07% above its 50-day simple moving average ($14.89) and +0.81% above its 200-day simple moving average ($14.78). Across its 52-week range of $13.21 to $17.65, AES sits at the 38.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($14.63 to $15.17).

Direct Sub-Reports: AES RQD Cockpit AES 12M Forecast AES Earnings & Move AES Dividends & DRIP AES Insiders & 13F AES Whale Options AES Profit Sankey AES News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 34/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AES — The AES Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

The AES Corporation (AES) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 34/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $14.90 (+0.47% 1D, market capitalization $10.58B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 6.7%, gross margin of 18.1%, operating margin of 9.1%, and free cash flow yield of -15.12%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (7/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (5/20): Incorporates a 0.75x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.54, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of 2.57x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

The AES Corporation (AES) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Utilities sector, specifically Electric Utilities: Central. Per the market data, the company reports a gross margin of 18.1%, an operating margin of 9.1%, and a net margin of 7.4%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), The AES Corporation (AES) reported $12.23B in annual revenue (up from $12.28B in FY2024, -0.4% YoY) and $910.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($12.67B revenue, $249.0M net income) through FY2025, AES scaled operating cash flow to $4.31B and free cash flow to -$1.62B, backed by $51.77B in total assets against $12.11B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 34/100): Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -15.12% and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $13.21 – $17.65 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 11.8x trailing P/E and 3.5x EV/EBITDA against 9.1% operating margins and a 0.75x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or proprietary signals are recorded (supply_chain: NONE; butterfly_links: empty). Sector and industry context is limited to Utilities / Electric Utilities: Central. Second-order ripple analysis cannot be drawn from the supplied graph, and no bottleneck mapping is available in source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can AES sustain or expand its 9.1% operating margin and 6.7% ROIC against Electric Utilities: Central peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $12.23B and free cash flow of -$1.62B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $12.11B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AES's 11.0x forward P/E multiple to Utilities capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.75x)?

AES Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for The AES Corporation (AES) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AES Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AES Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $14.90?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AES 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AES:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $19.43 (+31.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Valuation screens cheap on a forward P/E of 11 and EV/EBITDA of 3.5 while the stock pays a 4.67% dividend yield.

Don't sleep on AES's setup in Utilities. Valuation screens cheap on a forward P/E of 11 and EV/EBITDA of 3.5 while the stock pays a 4.67% dividend yield.. Beta of 0.75 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (34/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@MidwestValue Agree on the RQD 34/100 quality, though with 0.75 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $14.83 and keeping dry powder in case we test $13.79.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $12.31 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $14.83

Weak forensic and cash metrics, including an Altman Z-Score of 0.54, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and FCF yield of -15.12%, drive a D- RQD

Fading this rally in AES at $14.83. Weak forensic and cash metrics, including an Altman Z-Score of 0.54, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and FCF yield of -15.12%, drive a D- RQD grade.. With a beta of 0.75 and the stock sitting at $14.83 (52-wk range $13.21–$17.65), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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