How profitable is American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), AEO converted $5.5B of revenue into a 36.5% gross margin, 4.1% operating margin, and $195.4M in free cash flow (3.5% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / AEO / financials

BOOT (61) BKE (73) ANF (84) VSXY (71) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$19.75 +0.71% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.82

American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 72/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (36.5% gross margin, 12% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $3.29B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AEO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE: AEO) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 72/100 at a spot price of $19.75 (+0.71% 1D, market cap $3.29B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, AEO ranks #112 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AEO compare to BOOT and BKE in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores), AEO carries a Roarable B (72/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.1x, gross margin of 36.5%, and ROIC of 12.3%. By comparison, BOOT (Boot Barn Holdings Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 17.3x, ROIC 15.2%, cap $3.95B) and BKE (Buckle Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 48.6%, cap $2.39B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BKE leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while BKE leads on capital efficiency (48.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AEO?

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Per AEO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0000919012), American Eagle Outfitters Inc. generated $5.55B in revenue (+4.1% YoY), $186.0M in net income, and $195.4M in free cash flow against $4.01B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (36.5% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.82 (+0.37%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 3.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 72/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.7% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+6.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AEO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (72/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AEO SCORES 72/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.65 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (62.3) create a -9 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$17.60-1.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$17.38+12% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$19.46+1.5% Next Q

Current

Grade B$19.75+7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (64) → B (72)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AEO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 72/100 (B) score, AEO faces multiple-compression risk if 18.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 34.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($17.37) or 200D SMA ($18.29) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($20.99) toward Bear Floor ($16.20).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AEO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AEO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 30, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 72%NO 28%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How AEO Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$195.4M (3.5% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $5.26B

FY24

Rev $5.33B

FY25

Rev $5.55B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$5.55B	36.5%	4.1%	$186.0M	$195.4M	12.3%
FY 2024	$5.33B	39.2%	8%	$327.0M	$254.3M	14.4%
FY 2023	$5.26B	36.5%	4.2%	$169.0M	$343.9M	4.6%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AEO)

✓Walkthrough of AEO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

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AEO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +20.43%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-03O $20.12H $20.12L $19.61C $19.75VOL 4.64M

RES: $20.59SUP: $13.86SMA50: $17.37SMA200: $18.29

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AEO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AEO Butterfly Map → + Track AEO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

11.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AEO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AEO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AEO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AEO)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #112 of 1009 ⚔️ BOOT vs AEO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (AEO vs. BOOT, BKE, ANF, VSXY)

Industry: Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores (25 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) ranks #112 by composite RQD confidence (72/100, grade B) and #341 by equity capitalization ($3.29B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BKE leads on earnings valuation at 11.5x trailing P/E, while BKE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 48.6% ROIC and 49.0% gross margin. ANF currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 84/100 (A-) compared with AEO at 72/100 (B).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AEO ACTIVE American Eagle Outfitters Inc.	B	72/100	18.1x	36.5%	12.3%	+0.71%	$3.29B	Benchmark Subject
BOOT Boot Barn Holdings Inc.	C-	61/100	17.3x	38.1%	15.2%	+3.84%	$3.95B	/boot-vs-aeo →
BKE Buckle Inc.	B	73/100	11.5x	49.0%	48.6%	+2.01%	$2.39B	/bke-vs-aeo →
ANF Abercrombie & Fitch Company	A-	84/100	13.9x	—	40.7%	-0.16%	$6.98B	/anf-vs-aeo →
VSXY Victorias Secret & Co.	B-	71/100	49.1x	36.4%	16.4%	+2.00%	$7.71B	/vsxy-vs-aeo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-31 • CIK 0000919012 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31), American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) reported GAAP revenue of $5.55B (+4.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $5.33B , and +5.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $186.0M, operating cash flow of $456.2M, and free cash flow of $195.4M (-23.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, AEO closed FY2025 with $4.01B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.65, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-01-31	$5.55B	$186.0M	$456.2M	$195.4M	$4.01B	$0
FY2024 (FY)	2025-02-01	$5.33B	$327.0M	$476.8M	$254.3M	$3.83B	$896.4M
FY2023 (FY)	2024-02-03	$5.26B	$169.0M	$580.7M	$343.9M	$6.31B	$1.48B

3. AEO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AEO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does AEO compare to BOOT and BKE in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AEO?

Where is AEO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AEO last traded at $19.75 (+0.71% on volume of 5,660,490 shares), positioning the stock +13.70% above its 50-day simple moving average ($17.37) and +7.98% above its 200-day simple moving average ($18.29). Across its 52-week range of $14.10 to $28.46, AEO sits at the 39.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 62.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.7% ($18.23 to $21.27).

Direct Sub-Reports: AEO RQD Cockpit AEO 12M Forecast AEO Earnings & Move AEO Dividends & DRIP AEO Insiders & 13F AEO Whale Options AEO Profit Sankey AEO News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 72/100 (B) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AEO — American Eagle Outfitters Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2026-01-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 72/100, corresponding to a B letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $19.75 (+0.71% 1D, market capitalization $3.29B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 12.3%, gross margin of 36.5%, operating margin of 4.1%, and free cash flow yield of 5.80%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 0.93x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.65, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.00x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

American Eagle Outfitters Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector and Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores industry. Per the market data, gross margin is 36.5%, indicating the company earns a meaningful spread over merchandise cost.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-01-31), American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) reported $5.55B in annual revenue (up from $5.33B in FY2024, +4.1% YoY) and $186.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($5.26B revenue, $169.0M net income) through FY2025, AEO scaled operating cash flow to $456.2M and free cash flow to $195.4M, backed by $4.01B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (B • RQD 72/100): Strong cash generator (36.5% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $14.10 – $28.46 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 18.1x trailing P/E and 7.0x EV/EBITDA against 4.1% operating margins and a 0.93x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream suppliers, downstream dependencies, and sector correlations are — A prospective investor should note that the sector designation (Consumer Discretionary) indicates exposure to consumer spending cycles, but the source does not quantify any linkage.

Key Question #1: Can AEO sustain or expand its 4.1% operating margin and 12.3% ROIC against Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $5.55B and free cash flow of $195.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is AEO's 16.8x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.93x)?

AEO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AEO Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 23h ago

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) Stock Slides as Market Rises: Facts to Know Before You Trade

Yahoo Finance report covering American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com • 1d ago

American Eagle director Cary McMillan sells $65,829 of AEO stock

Investing.com report covering American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE StockInvest.us • 1d ago

American Eagle Outfitters Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy AEO?

StockInvest.us report covering American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Is Most-Watched Stock American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) Worth Betting on Now?

Yahoo Finance report covering American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Yahoo Finance report covering American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), What Is Behind The Fresh Attention?

Yahoo Finance report covering American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

American Eagle (AEO) Stock Looks Reasonable On Its 32% Slide

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AEO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $19.75?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AEO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $24.32 (+24.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Per the RQD rating, the 17/20 insider conviction pillar and 16/20 forensic balance sheet (Piotroski F 8/9, Debt/Equity 0.5) indicate st

Here is why I am bullish on AEO here at $19.61: Per the RQD rating, the 17/20 insider conviction pillar and 16/20 forensic balance sheet (Piotroski F 8/9, Debt/Equity 0.5) indicate strong insider and financial-quality support.. Compare AEO's 4.1% operating margin and 12.3% ROIC against the rest of Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $18.63 are getting bought.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@CashFlowKing Agree on the RQD 72/100 quality, though with 0.93 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $19.61 and keeping dry powder in case we test $18.24.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $15.49 (-21.0%)

Spot @ $19.61

Per the RQD rating, the 11/20 macro regime fit pillar and the 4.1% operating margin leave the stock with limited earnings cushion again

Per the RQD rating, the 11/20 macro regime fit pillar and the 4.1% operating margin leave the stock with limited earnings cushion against sector and market swings.. Look at the math on AEO: paying 18.1x trailing P/E for 12.3% ROIC and 4.1% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $17.26 before getting long.