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Why ADEA Stock dropped -3.59% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$20.67 -3.59% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.50

Adeia Inc. (ADEA) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.36B
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ADEA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Adeia Inc. (NASDAQ: ADEA) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $20.67 (-3.59% 1D, market cap $2.36B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 132 tracked Communication Services issuers, ADEA ranks #32 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ADEA compare to LBTYK and LBTYA in the Communication Services sector?
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Within the Communication Services sector (Cable & Other Pay Television Services), ADEA carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 22.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 17.2%. By comparison, LBTYK (Liberty Global Ltd. (Class C)) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.1%, cap $2.62B) and LBTYA (Liberty Global Ltd. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.1%, cap $2.65B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ADEA leads on earnings multiple (22.3x) while LILA leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ADEA?
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Per ADEA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001803696), Adeia Inc. generated $443.4M in revenue (+17.9% YoY), $111.1M in net income, and $156.3M in free cash flow against $1.04B in total assets and $397.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.50 (-0.84%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 35.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510061
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk C
Cash (14)Whales (5)SEC (15)Macro (10)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.4% Base Target
$36 Bull$21 Base$16 Bear
📬 FREE ADEA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ADEA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (61/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ADEA SCORES 61/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.03 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
69
Grade B-$23.13-7.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
66
Grade B-$21.30+6.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
64
Grade C+$22.70-8.9% Next Q
Current
61
Grade C-$20.67+0.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (69) → C- (61)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ADEA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 61/100 (C-) score, ADEA faces multiple-compression risk if 22.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($24.23) or 200D SMA ($25.64) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($20.95) toward Bear Floor ($16.34).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ADEA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ADEA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why ADEA Stock dropped -3.59% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Adeia Inc. (ADEA) dropped -3.59% to $20.67, trading at 40% of its 52-week range ($11.61 – $34.34). Solid steady margins (17% return on capital), mixed timing at 22x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 40% of its 52-week range ($11.61 – $34.34) with RSI-14 at 41.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8.3% around $20.67 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C- (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $156.3M annual free cash flow.
Live ADEA Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRETradingView • 1d ago
Adeia Inc. Estimates – NASDAQ:ADEA

TradingView report covering Adeia Inc. (ADEA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 1d ago
Adeia Inc. (ADEA) Stock Forecasts

Yahoo Finance report covering Adeia Inc. (ADEA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ADEA Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ADEA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -38.54%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $22.48H $22.48L $20.67C $20.67VOL 1.40M
RES: $23.99SUP: $18.89SMA50: $24.23SMA200: $25.64
$35.48$30.77$26.06$21.35$16.64RES $23.99SUP $18.89$20.672026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ADEA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
16.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +17.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ADEA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ADEA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ADEA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ADEA)

Communication Services Rank #32 of 132 ⚔️ LBTYK vs ADEA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Communication Services Peer Comparison (ADEA vs. LBTYK, LBTYA, LILA, LILAK)

Industry: Cable & Other Pay Television Services (16 Tracked Issuers)

Across 132 tracked Communication Services securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Adeia Inc. (ADEA) ranks #32 by composite RQD confidence (61/100, grade C-) and #55 by equity capitalization ($2.36B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ADEA leads on earnings valuation at 22.3x trailing P/E, while LILA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. LILA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with ADEA at 61/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ADEA ACTIVE
Adeia Inc.
C- 61/100 22.3x — 17.2% -3.59% $2.36B Benchmark Subject
LBTYK
Liberty Global Ltd. (Class C)
E 34/100 — 65.8% -0.1% +4.04% $2.62B /lbtyk-vs-adea →
LBTYA
Liberty Global Ltd. (Class A)
D- 35/100 — 65.8% -0.1% +4.51% $2.65B /lbtya-vs-adea →
LILA
Liberty Latin America Ltd. (Class A)
C 65/100 — — 85.0% +2.25% $1.65B /lila-vs-adea →
LILAK
Liberty Latin America Ltd. (Class C)
C 63/100 — — 85.0% +2.39% $1.64B /lilak-vs-adea →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001803696 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Adeia Inc. (ADEA) reported GAAP revenue of $443.4M (+17.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $376.0M , and +14.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $111.1M, operating cash flow of $158.1M, and free cash flow of $156.3M (-25.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, ADEA closed FY2025 with $1.04B in total assets against $397.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.03, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $443.4M $111.1M $158.1M $156.3M $1.04B $397.5M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $376.0M $64.6M $212.5M $210.6M $1.10B $454.4M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $388.8M $67.4M $152.8M $152.8M — —

3. ADEA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ADEA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Adeia Inc. (NASDAQ: ADEA) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $20.67 (-3.59% 1D, market cap $2.36B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 132 tracked Communication Services issuers, ADEA ranks #32 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ADEA compare to LBTYK and LBTYA in the Communication Services sector?

Within the Communication Services sector (Cable & Other Pay Television Services), ADEA carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 22.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 17.2%. By comparison, LBTYK (Liberty Global Ltd. (Class C)) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.1%, cap $2.62B) and LBTYA (Liberty Global Ltd. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.1%, cap $2.65B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ADEA leads on earnings multiple (22.3x) while LILA leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ADEA?

Per ADEA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001803696), Adeia Inc. generated $443.4M in revenue (+17.9% YoY), $111.1M in net income, and $156.3M in free cash flow against $1.04B in total assets and $397.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ADEA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ADEA last traded at $20.67 (-3.59% on volume of 2,280,324 shares), positioning the stock -14.69% below its 50-day simple moving average ($24.23) and -19.38% below its 200-day simple moving average ($25.64). Across its 52-week range of $11.61 to $34.34, ADEA sits at the 39.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.3% ($18.95 to $22.39).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 61/100 (C-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ADEA — Adeia Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Adeia Inc. (ADEA) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 61/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $20.67 (-3.59% 1D, market capitalization $2.36B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 17.2%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 39.5%, and free cash flow yield of 6.30%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 4.03, Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.83x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Adeia Inc. (ADEA) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Communication Services sector, within the Cable & Other Pay Television Services industry, and profile.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Adeia Inc. (ADEA) reported $443.4M in annual revenue (up from $376.0M in FY2024, +17.9% YoY) and $111.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($388.8M revenue, $67.4M net income) through FY2025, ADEA scaled operating cash flow to $158.1M and free cash flow to $156.3M, backed by $1.04B in total assets against $397.5M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 61/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $11.61 – $34.34 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 22.3x trailing P/E and 15.9x EV/EBITDA against 39.5% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream supply-chain dependencies are mapped (supply_chain: NONE; butterfly_links: empty). No proprietary signals are recorded. Sector correlations and 2nd-order bottlenecks cannot be established from the source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can ADEA sustain or expand its 39.5% operating margin and 17.2% ROIC against Cable & Other Pay Television Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $443.4M and free cash flow of $156.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $397.5M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ADEA's 18.7x forward P/E multiple to Communication Services capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ADEA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Adeia Inc. (ADEA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ADEA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ADEA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $20.67?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ADEA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ADEA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $26.37 (+23.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction scores 17/20 and the balance sheet scores 15/20 (Piotroski F 9/9, Altman Z 4.03), with net income rising to $111.1M

The street is overcomplicating Adeia Inc. (ADEA). Insider conviction scores 17/20 and the balance sheet scores 15/20 (Piotroski F 9/9, Altman Z 4.03), with net income rising to $111.1M in FY 2025.. With an RQD score of 61/100 (C-) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 15/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $23.16.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@MacroHawk_NYC Agree on the RQD 61/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $21.44 and keeping dry powder in case we test $19.94.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $18.01 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $21.44

Institutional flow scores only 6/20 and reported FCF fell from $210.6M in FY 2024 to $156.3M in FY 2025.

I respect the product at Adeia Inc., but the stock at $21.44 is a different story. Institutional flow scores only 6/20 and reported FCF fell from $210.6M in FY 2024 to $156.3M in FY 2025.. FCF yield is 6.3% and RQD sits at 61/100 (C-) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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