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Adagene Inc. (ADAG) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$2.29 -8.76% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.25

Adagene Inc. (ADAG) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 25/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $165.8M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ADAG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Adagene Inc. (NASDAQ: ADAG) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 25/100 at a spot price of $2.29 (-8.76% 1D, market cap $165.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, ADAG ranks #925 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ADAG compare to PEPG and VRXA in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ADAG carries a Roarable E (25/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, PEPG (PepGen Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $163.5M) and VRXA (Veraxa Biotech AG) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $161.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ADAG leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ORMP leads on capital efficiency (-7.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ADAG?
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Per ADAG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001818838), Adagene Inc. generated $7.7M in revenue (+7332.8% YoY), -$17.6M in net income, and -$15.7M in free cash flow against $78.3M in total assets and $1.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.25 (-1.77%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (25/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510025
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (3)Whales (4)SEC (8)Macro (7)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-14.8% Base Target
$5 Bull$2 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE ADAG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ADAG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (25/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ADAG SCORES 25/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (32% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+7/20 pts (28% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 28% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 43.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
33
Grade E$2.74-16.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
30
Grade E$2.29+8.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
28
Grade E$2.49-8% Next Q
Current
25
Grade E$2.29-10.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (33) → E (25)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ADAG Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ADAG currently carries a cautious 25/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.02) and Max Pain ($2.40) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $5.09.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ADAG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ADAG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 25%NO 75%Trade / Inspect Odds →
SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

ADAG Smart-Money Thermometer: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →
▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (ADAG)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on ADAG. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ADAG)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ADAG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ADAG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -37.43%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $2.68H $2.68L $2.29C $2.29VOL 79.7K
RES: $3.16SUP: $1.82SMA50: $3.02SMA200: $3.43
$5.05$4.23$3.40$2.58$1.75RES $3.16SUP $1.82$2.292026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ADAG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ADAG Butterfly Map → + Track ADAG →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7332.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ADAG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ADAG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ADAG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ADAG)

Health Care Rank #925 of 1015 ⚔️ PEPG vs ADAG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ADAG vs. PEPG, VRXA, ANTX, ORMP)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Adagene Inc. (ADAG) ranks #925 by composite RQD confidence (25/100, grade E) and #595 by equity capitalization ($165.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ADAG leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while ORMP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -7.8% ROIC and 0.7% gross margin. VRXA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 49/100 (D) compared with ADAG at 25/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ADAG ACTIVE
Adagene Inc.
E 25/100 — — -35.0% -8.76% $165.8M Benchmark Subject
PEPG
PepGen Inc.
D- 35/100 — — -35.0% -0.42% $163.5M /pepg-vs-adag →
VRXA
Veraxa Biotech AG
D 49/100 — — — -9.65% $161.2M /vrxa-vs-adag →
ANTX
AN2 Therapeutics Inc.
D- 43/100 — — -35.0% -3.97% $170.9M /antx-vs-adag →
ORMP
Oramed Pharmaceuticals Inc.
E 33/100 — 0.7% -7.8% -2.68% $171.0M /ormp-vs-adag →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001818838 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Adagene Inc. (ADAG) reported GAAP revenue of $7.7M (+7332.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $103.2K , and -57.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$17.6M, operating cash flow of -$15.7M, and free cash flow of -$15.7M (+47.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, ADAG closed FY2025 with $78.3M in total assets against $1.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $7.7M -$17.6M -$15.7M -$15.7M $78.3M $1.1M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $103.2K -$33.4M -$29.7M -$29.7M $89.3M $417.3K
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $18.1M -$18.9M -$28.5M -$28.5M — —

3. ADAG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ADAG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Adagene Inc. (NASDAQ: ADAG) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 25/100 at a spot price of $2.29 (-8.76% 1D, market cap $165.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, ADAG ranks #925 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ADAG compare to PEPG and VRXA in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ADAG carries a Roarable E (25/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, PEPG (PepGen Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $163.5M) and VRXA (Veraxa Biotech AG) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $161.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ADAG leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ORMP leads on capital efficiency (-7.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ADAG?

Per ADAG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001818838), Adagene Inc. generated $7.7M in revenue (+7332.8% YoY), -$17.6M in net income, and -$15.7M in free cash flow against $78.3M in total assets and $1.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ADAG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ADAG last traded at $2.29 (-8.76% on volume of 181,781 shares), positioning the stock -24.17% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.02) and -33.24% below its 200-day simple moving average ($3.43). Across its 52-week range of $1.30 to $4.85, ADAG sits at the 27.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.00 to $2.58).

Direct Sub-Reports: ADAG RQD Cockpit ADAG 12M Forecast ADAG Earnings & Move ADAG Dividends & DRIP ADAG Insiders & 13F ADAG Whale Options ADAG Profit Sankey ADAG News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 25/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ADAG — Adagene Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Adagene Inc. (ADAG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 25/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $2.29 (-8.76% 1D, market capitalization $165.8M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (3/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of -8.85%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.20, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.03x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Adagene Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry, . The profile describes it as operating with a market capitalization of $0.2B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Adagene Inc. (ADAG) reported $7.7M in annual revenue (up from $103.2K in FY2024, +7332.8% YoY) and -$17.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($18.1M revenue, -$18.9M net income) through FY2025, ADAG scaled operating cash flow to -$15.7M and free cash flow to -$15.7M, backed by $78.3M in total assets against $1.1M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 25/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -8.85% and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 3/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.30 – $4.85 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (Health Care), ADAG carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can ADAG sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $7.7M and free cash flow of -$15.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.1M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ADAG's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ADAG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Adagene Inc. (ADAG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ADAG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ADAG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.29?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ADAG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ADAG:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $3.26 (+29.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Debt/Equity of 0.03 and $74.5M in reported cash give the balance sheet meaningful liquidity against a low leverage profile.

Here is why I am bullish on ADAG here at $2.51: Debt/Equity of 0.03 and $74.5M in reported cash give the balance sheet meaningful liquidity against a low leverage profile.. Compare ADAG's -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against the rest of Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $2.38 are getting bought.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — ADAG's 8/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.03 (-19.1%)
Spot @ $2.51

Negative ROIC of -35%, FCF of -$15.7M, and an Altman Z-Score of 0.2 show the company is consuming capital with distress-level forensic

I respect the product at Adagene Inc., but the stock at $2.51 is a different story. Negative ROIC of -35%, FCF of -$15.7M, and an Altman Z-Score of 0.2 show the company is consuming capital with distress-level forensic readings.. FCF yield is -8.85% and RQD sits at 25/100 (E) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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