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Accel Entertainment Inc. (ACEL) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$11.91 +4.84% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.99

Accel Entertainment Inc. (ACEL) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $922.4M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ACEL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ACEL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Accel Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: ACEL) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $11.91 (+4.84% 1D, market cap $922.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ACEL ranks #372 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ACEL compare to FBYD and FUN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), ACEL carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 15.7%. By comparison, FBYD (Falcon's Beyond Global Inc. (Class A)) holds a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -22.8%, cap $837.9M) and FUN (Six Flags Entertainment Corporation) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -19.3%, cap $765.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ACEL leads on earnings multiple (17.8x) while ACEL leads on capital efficiency (15.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ACEL?
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Per ACEL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001698991), Accel Entertainment Inc. generated $302.0M in revenue (+18.7% YoY), $51.5M in net income, and $62.0M in free cash flow against $1.10B in total assets and $569.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.99 (+0.68%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 20.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510058
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk D
Cash (14)Whales (10)SEC (11)Macro (7)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target
$15 Bull$12 Base$9 Bear
📬 FREE ACEL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ACEL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ACEL SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 20.5% FCF Margin ($62.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (57.1) create a -13 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
50
Grade C-$11.30-4.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
53
Grade C-$10.83+3.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
55
Grade C$11.19+6.4% Next Q
Current
58
Grade D+$11.91+0% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (50) → D+ (58)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ACEL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, ACEL faces multiple-compression risk if 17.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($11.26) or 200D SMA ($11.71) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($11.91) toward Bear Floor ($9.29).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ACEL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ACEL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 58%NO 42%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your ACEL Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $11.91: 839.6 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $9.29
$7,800
$-2,200 (-22.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $11.91
$10,000
+$0 (+0.0%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $14.70
$12,343
+$2,343 (+23.4%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$1274%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$1469%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$1158%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ACEL)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ACEL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ACEL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -2.46%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $11.30H $11.91L $11.30C $11.91VOL 393.4K
RES: $11.40SUP: $9.74SMA50: $11.26SMA200: $11.71
$14.24$13.25$12.26$11.27$10.28RES $11.40SUP $9.74$11.912026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ACEL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ACEL Butterfly Map → + Track ACEL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
10.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +18.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ACEL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ACEL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ACEL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ACEL)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #372 of 1009 ⚔️ FBYD vs ACEL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ACEL vs. FBYD, FUN, BUUU, RSVR)

Industry: Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Accel Entertainment Inc. (ACEL) ranks #372 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #514 by equity capitalization ($922.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ACEL leads on earnings valuation at 17.8x trailing P/E, while ACEL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 15.7% ROIC and — gross margin. BUUU currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with ACEL at 58/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ACEL ACTIVE
Accel Entertainment Inc.
D+ 58/100 17.8x — 15.7% +4.84% $922.4M Benchmark Subject
FBYD
Falcon's Beyond Global Inc. (Class A)
E 26/100 — — -22.8% 0.00% $837.9M /fbyd-vs-acel →
FUN
Six Flags Entertainment Corporation
E 33/100 — 91.3% -19.3% +3.34% $765.3M /fun-vs-acel →
BUUU
BUUU Group Limited Class A Ordinary Share
C- 61/100 — 31.0% — -5.89% $1.15B /buuu-vs-acel →
RSVR
Reservoir Media Inc.
D 51/100 80.8x 64.7% 3.8% +1.68% $627.7M /rsvr-vs-acel →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001698991 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Accel Entertainment Inc. (ACEL) reported GAAP revenue of $302.0M (+18.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $254.5M , and +0.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $51.5M, operating cash flow of $150.9M, and free cash flow of $62.0M (+13.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, ACEL closed FY2025 with $1.10B in total assets against $569.8M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $302.0M $51.5M $150.9M $62.0M $1.10B $569.8M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $254.5M $35.3M $121.2M $54.7M $1.05B $560.9M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $300.7M $45.6M $132.5M $132.5M — —

3. ACEL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ACEL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Accel Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: ACEL) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $11.91 (+4.84% 1D, market cap $922.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ACEL ranks #372 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ACEL compare to FBYD and FUN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), ACEL carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 15.7%. By comparison, FBYD (Falcon's Beyond Global Inc. (Class A)) holds a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -22.8%, cap $837.9M) and FUN (Six Flags Entertainment Corporation) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -19.3%, cap $765.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ACEL leads on earnings multiple (17.8x) while ACEL leads on capital efficiency (15.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ACEL?

Per ACEL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001698991), Accel Entertainment Inc. generated $302.0M in revenue (+18.7% YoY), $51.5M in net income, and $62.0M in free cash flow against $1.10B in total assets and $569.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ACEL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ACEL last traded at $11.91 (+4.84% on volume of 596,985 shares), positioning the stock +5.77% above its 50-day simple moving average ($11.26) and +1.71% above its 200-day simple moving average ($11.71). Across its 52-week range of $9.55 to $14.00, ACEL sits at the 53.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.0% ($11.31 to $12.51).

Direct Sub-Reports: ACEL RQD Cockpit ACEL 12M Forecast ACEL Earnings & Move ACEL Dividends & DRIP ACEL Insiders & 13F ACEL Whale Options ACEL Profit Sankey ACEL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 58/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ACEL — Accel Entertainment Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Accel Entertainment Inc. (ACEL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 58/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $11.91 (+4.84% 1D, market capitalization $922.4M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 15.7%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 6.75%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 2.11x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Accel Entertainment Inc. (ACEL) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation industry.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Accel Entertainment Inc. (ACEL) reported $302.0M in annual revenue (up from $254.5M in FY2024, +18.7% YoY) and $51.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($300.7M revenue, $45.6M net income) through FY2025, ACEL scaled operating cash flow to $150.9M and free cash flow to $62.0M, backed by $1.10B in total assets against $569.8M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 58/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 6.75% and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $9.55 – $14.00 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 17.8x trailing P/E and 6.5x EV/EBITDA against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports supply_chain as NONE with empty butterfly_links and proprietary_signals, so upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks cannot be mapped from source data. The only sector-level data points are the Consumer Discretionary classification and the Beta of 1.0 .

  • Key Question #1: Can ACEL sustain or expand its — operating margin and 15.7% ROIC against Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $302.0M and free cash flow of $62.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $569.8M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ACEL's 16.6x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ACEL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Accel Entertainment Inc. (ACEL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ACEL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ACEL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $11.91?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ACEL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ACEL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $13.97 (+23.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC of 15.7% and FCF yield of 6.75% are the rating's main cash-generation support, and a reported 12-mont

The street is overcomplicating Accel Entertainment Inc. (ACEL). Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC of 15.7% and FCF yield of 6.75% are the rating's main cash-generation support, and a reported 12-month price target of $16.12 implies 47% upside.. With an RQD score of 58/100 (D+) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 11/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $12.27.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Shorting a 10/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $11.36 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.97 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $11.36

Per the Roarable RQD rating, Debt/Equity of 2.11 and a Macro Regime Fit score of 7/20 weigh on the composite score, which carries a 'Ro

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short ACEL above $11.36. Per the Roarable RQD rating, Debt/Equity of 2.11 and a Macro Regime Fit score of 7/20 weigh on the composite score, which carries a 'Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim' verdict.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20) and FCF yield (6.75%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $14.00.

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