How profitable is Airbnb Inc. (ABNB)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), ABNB converted $12.2B of revenue into a 83% gross margin, 20.8% operating margin, and $4.1B in free cash flow (33.5% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ABNB / financials

URI (78) SUNB (76) AER (69) APG (64) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Airbnb Inc. (ABNB) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$171.11 +4.09% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $172.78

Airbnb Inc. (ABNB) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 74/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (83.0% gross margin, 25% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $98.43B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ABNB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Airbnb Inc. (NASDAQ: ABNB) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 74/100 at a spot price of $171.11 (+4.09% 1D, market cap $98.43B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ABNB ranks #68 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ABNB compare to URI and SUNB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), ABNB carries a Roarable B (74/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 39.7x, gross margin of 83.0%, and ROIC of 25.2%. By comparison, URI (United Rentals Inc.) holds a B+ grade (78/100 RQD, P/E 29.8x, ROIC 18.2%, cap $72.45B) and SUNB (Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc.) posts a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 11.7%, cap $34.27B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AER leads on earnings multiple (6.6x) while ABNB leads on capital efficiency (25.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ABNB?

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Per ABNB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001559720), Airbnb Inc. generated $12.24B in revenue (+10.3% YoY), $2.51B in net income, and $4.10B in free cash flow against $22.21B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (83.0% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 40x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $172.79 (+0.98%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 33.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 74/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.4% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ABNB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (74/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ABNB SCORES 74/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 33.5% FCF Margin ($4.10B FCF) & 83% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 5.13 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$167.06+4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$173.69-4.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B$166.04+3.1% Next Q

Current

Grade B$171.11+7.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (66) → B (74)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ABNB Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 74/100 (B) score, ABNB faces multiple-compression risk if 39.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 40x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 80.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($168.97) or 200D SMA ($147.23) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($183.43) toward Bear Floor ($140.31).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ABNB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ABNB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 74%NO 26%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How ABNB Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$4.10B (33.5% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $9.92B

FY24

Rev $11.10B

FY25

Rev $12.24B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$12.24B	83%	20.8%	$2.51B	$4.10B	95%
FY 2024	$11.10B	83.1%	23%	$2.65B	$4.02B	56.9%
FY 2023	$9.92B	83%	15.3%	$4.79B	$3.44B	3.6%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ABNB)

✓Walkthrough of ABNB's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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ABNB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +23.22%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $166.5H $171.1L $164.4C $171.1VOL 4.02M

RES: $175.2SUP: $158.2SMA50: $169.0SMA200: $147.2

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ABNB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ABNB Butterfly Map → + Track ABNB →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

30.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +10.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ABNB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ABNB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ABNB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ABNB)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #68 of 1009 ⚔️ URI vs ABNB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ABNB vs. URI, SUNB, AER, APG)

Industry: Diversified Commercial Services (32 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Airbnb Inc. (ABNB) ranks #68 by composite RQD confidence (74/100, grade B) and #18 by equity capitalization ($98.43B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AER leads on earnings valuation at 6.6x trailing P/E, while ABNB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 25.2% ROIC and 83.0% gross margin. URI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 78/100 (B+) compared with ABNB at 74/100 (B).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ABNB ACTIVE Airbnb Inc.	B	74/100	39.7x	83.0%	25.2%	+4.09%	$98.43B	Benchmark Subject
URI United Rentals Inc.	B+	78/100	29.8x	96.0%	18.2%	+0.46%	$72.45B	/uri-vs-abnb →
SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc.	B+	76/100	—	96.0%	11.7%	+0.18%	$34.27B	/sunb-vs-abnb →
AER AerCap Holdings N.V.	C+	69/100	6.6x	—	9.2%	+3.04%	$24.48B	/aer-vs-abnb →
APG APi Group Corporation	C	64/100	64.4x	31.4%	8.3%	+2.17%	$18.86B	/apg-vs-abnb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001559720 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Airbnb Inc. (ABNB) reported GAAP revenue of $12.24B (+10.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $11.10B , and +23.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $2.51B, operating cash flow of $4.65B, and free cash flow of $4.10B (+1.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, ABNB closed FY2025 with $22.21B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.13, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$12.24B	$2.51B	$4.65B	$4.10B	$22.21B	$0
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$11.10B	$2.65B	$4.52B	$4.02B	$20.96B	$2.00B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$9.92B	$4.79B	$3.88B	$3.44B	$54.82B	$12.83B

3. ABNB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ABNB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ABNB compare to URI and SUNB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ABNB?

Where is ABNB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ABNB last traded at $171.11 (+4.09% on volume of 5,960,683 shares), positioning the stock +1.27% above its 50-day simple moving average ($168.97) and +16.22% above its 200-day simple moving average ($147.23). Across its 52-week range of $110.81 to $193.45, ABNB sits at the 73.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.7% ($163.07 to $179.15).

Direct Sub-Reports: ABNB RQD Cockpit ABNB 12M Forecast ABNB Earnings & Move ABNB Dividends & DRIP ABNB Insiders & 13F ABNB Whale Options ABNB Profit Sankey ABNB News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 74/100 (B) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ABNB — Airbnb Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Airbnb Inc. (ABNB) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 74/100, corresponding to a B letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $171.11 (+4.09% 1D, market capitalization $98.43B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (18/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 25.2%, gross margin of 83.0%, operating margin of 20.8%, and free cash flow yield of 4.11%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (11/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 0.93x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 5.13, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.00x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Airbnb Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Diversified Commercial Services industry. The source data identifies the company's operating model in general terms only.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Airbnb Inc. (ABNB) reported $12.24B in annual revenue (up from $11.10B in FY2024, +10.3% YoY) and $2.51B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($9.92B revenue, $4.79B net income) through FY2025, ABNB scaled operating cash flow to $4.65B and free cash flow to $4.10B, backed by $22.21B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (B • RQD 74/100): Strong cash generator (83.0% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 18/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 11/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $110.81 – $193.45 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Priced at 40x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Investors must weigh 39.7x trailing P/E and 30.9x EV/EBITDA against 20.8% operating margins and a 0.93x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks are available in source data.

Key Question #1: Can ABNB sustain or expand its 20.8% operating margin and 25.2% ROIC against Diversified Commercial Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $12.24B and free cash flow of $4.10B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is ABNB's 36.9x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.93x)?

ABNB Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Airbnb Inc. (ABNB) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 22h ago

Airbnb (ABNB) Stock Could Be 44% Below Fair Value After AI Update

Yahoo Finance report covering Airbnb Inc. (ABNB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Trefis • 1d ago

Should You Buy Airbnb Stock For Its Cash?

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🟡 MARKET WIRE The Motley Fool • 1d ago

How to Buy Airbnb Stock (ABNB) & What You Should Know

The Motley Fool report covering Airbnb Inc. (ABNB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Booking (BKNG) vs Airbnb (ABNB): Which is a Better Stock to Buy?

Yahoo Finance report covering Airbnb Inc. (ABNB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Why Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) Outpaced the Stock Market Today

Yahoo Finance report covering Airbnb Inc. (ABNB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Is Airbnb (ABNB) Stock Outpacing Its Consumer Discretionary Peers This Year?

Yahoo Finance report covering Airbnb Inc. (ABNB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) Stock Slides as Market Rises: Facts to Know Before You Trade

Yahoo Finance report covering Airbnb Inc. (ABNB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

3 Reasons ABNB Has Explosive Upside Potential

Yahoo Finance report covering Airbnb Inc. (ABNB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ABNB Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $171.11?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ABNB 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $212.06 (+29.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Strong cash economics (ROIC 25.2%, FCF yield 4.11%) and a healthy balance sheet (Altman Z 5.13, Piotroski F 8/9) underpin a Roarable Bu

The street is overcomplicating Airbnb Inc. (ABNB). Strong cash economics (ROIC 25.2%, FCF yield 4.11%) and a healthy balance sheet (Altman Z 5.13, Piotroski F 8/9) underpin a Roarable Buy rating.. With an RQD score of 74/100 (B) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 18/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $177.54.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@MidwestValue Agree on the RQD 74/100 quality, though with 0.93 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $164.39 and keeping dry powder in case we test $152.88.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $124.94 (-24.0%)

Spot @ $164.39

A premium valuation (P/E TTM 39.7, EV/EBITDA 30.9) and the weakest macro regime fit (12/20) leave limited margin for error if growth sl

A premium valuation (P/E TTM 39.7, EV/EBITDA 30.9) and the weakest macro regime fit (12/20) leave limited margin for error if growth slows.. Look at the math on ABNB: paying 39.7x trailing P/E for 25.2% ROIC and 20.8% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Diversified Commercial Services demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $144.66 before getting long.