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Why AADX Stock slipped -0.18% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$11.13 -0.18% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.11

Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 42/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.92B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AADX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (NYSE: AADX) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $11.13 (-0.18% 1D, market cap $1.92B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Active quantitative signal LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND (BULLISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AADX compare to RDW and VOYG in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Military/Government/Technical), AADX carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, RDW (Redwire Corporation) holds a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -17.4%, cap $2.10B) and VOYG (Voyager Technologies Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (16/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.64B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ATRO leads on earnings multiple (92.1x) while ATRO leads on capital efficiency (13.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AADX?
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Per AADX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002118195), Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. generated $419.7M in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $999.3M in total assets and $627.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.11 (-0.22%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 12.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-
025507510042
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-
Cash (11)Whales (6)SEC (11)Macro (5)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.2% Base Target
$25 Bull$10 Base$8 Bear
📬 FREE AADX RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AADX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (42/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AADX SCORES 42/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 12.8% FCF Margin ($53.8M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (47.6) create a -15 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
34
Grade E$10.42+6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
37
Grade E$11.05-2.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
39
Grade E$10.74+3.6% Next Q
Current
42
Grade D-$11.13-7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (34) → D- (42)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AADX Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AADX currently carries a cautious 42/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.93) and Max Pain ($11.69) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $25.45.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AADX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AADX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 42%NO 58%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why AADX Stock slipped -0.18% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) slipped -0.18% to $11.13, trading at 12% of its 52-week range ($9.4 – $24.24). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 12% of its 52-week range ($9.4 – $24.24) with RSI-14 at 47.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $11.13 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Primary SEC / Cross-Feed Trigger: AADX Macro Tailwind Hits 96/100 Despite True Net Liquidity Contraction of -0.64%
Live AADX Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AADX)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AADX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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AADX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -41.45%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $11.82H $11.82L $11.13C $11.13VOL 2.23M
RES: $19.05SUP: $8.95SMA50: $11.93SMA200: $15.85
$25.28$20.98$16.67$12.37$8.06RES $19.05SUP $8.95$11.132026-06-032026-07-132026-08-192026-09-252026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AADX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AADX Butterfly Map → + Track AADX →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AADX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AADX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AADX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AADX)

Industrials Rank #322 of 486 ⚔️ RDW vs AADX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (AADX vs. RDW, VOYG, DCO, ATRO)

Industry: Military/Government/Technical (43 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) ranks #322 by composite RQD confidence (42/100, grade D-) and #210 by equity capitalization ($1.92B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ATRO leads on earnings valuation at 92.1x trailing P/E, while ATRO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.2% ROIC and 29.9% gross margin. ATRO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 49/100 (D) compared with AADX at 42/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AADX ACTIVE
Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc.
D- 42/100 — — — -0.18% $1.92B Benchmark Subject
RDW
Redwire Corporation
E 31/100 — 5.2% -17.4% -6.67% $2.10B /rdw-vs-aadx →
VOYG
Voyager Technologies Inc. (Class A)
E 16/100 — 18.0% -35.0% -6.96% $1.64B /voyg-vs-aadx →
DCO
Ducommun Incorporated
D- 37/100 — 26.9% -3.1% +2.10% $2.42B /dco-vs-aadx →
ATRO
Astronics Corporation
D 49/100 92.1x 29.9% 13.2% +0.94% $2.55B /atro-vs-aadx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002118195 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) reported GAAP revenue of $419.7M , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, AADX closed FY2025 with $999.3M in total assets against $627.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: N/A).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $419.7M $0 — — $999.3M $627.0M

3. AADX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AADX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (NYSE: AADX) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $11.13 (-0.18% 1D, market cap $1.92B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Active quantitative signal LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND (BULLISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.

How does AADX compare to RDW and VOYG in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Military/Government/Technical), AADX carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, RDW (Redwire Corporation) holds a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -17.4%, cap $2.10B) and VOYG (Voyager Technologies Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (16/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.64B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ATRO leads on earnings multiple (92.1x) while ATRO leads on capital efficiency (13.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AADX?

Per AADX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002118195), Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. generated $419.7M in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $999.3M in total assets and $627.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AADX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AADX last traded at $11.13 (-0.18% on volume of 1,644,766 shares), positioning the stock -6.71% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.93) and -29.78% below its 200-day simple moving average ($15.85). Across its 52-week range of $9.40 to $24.24, AADX sits at the 11.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($9.74 to $12.52).

Direct Sub-Reports: AADX RQD Cockpit AADX 12M Forecast AADX Earnings & Move AADX Dividends & DRIP AADX Insiders & 13F AADX Whale Options AADX Profit Sankey AADX News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 42/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AADX — Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 42/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $11.13 (-0.18% 1D, market capitalization $1.92B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of —, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of N/A, and Debt/Equity of 3.93x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Industrials sector and the Military/Government/Technical industry. — for the remainder of the business description.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) reported $419.7M in annual revenue and $0 in GAAP net income. Operating cash flow reached $0 and free cash flow totaled $0, backed by $999.3M in total assets against $627.0M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 42/100): Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 6/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $9.40 – $24.24 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists supply_chain as NONE and an empty set of butterfly links. Upstream suppliers, downstream customers, and cross-sector dependencies are therefore — The only sector-level ripple in the sources is the liquidity signal, which ties AADX's price sensitivity to the Fed balance sheet, Treasury General Account, and Overnight RRP. A prospective investor should watch whether liquidity conditions shift, given the stated high elasticity, while recognizing the source's weak correlation. Second-order bottlenecks such as supplier concentration, customer concentration, and program dependence are not identified in the source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can AADX sustain or expand its — operating margin and — ROIC against Military/Government/Technical peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $419.7M and free cash flow of $0, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $627.0M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AADX's equity valuation to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

AADX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AADX Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AADX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $11.13?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AADX 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AADX:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $13.27 (+19.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

A BULLISH LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND signal (severity 94, MACRO TAILWIND SCORE 96/100) and a reported RBC-referenced view that the outlook is s

Don't sleep on AADX's setup in Industrials. A BULLISH LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND signal (severity 94, MACRO TAILWIND SCORE 96/100) and a reported RBC-referenced view that the outlook is supported by defense demand and backlog.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (42/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@SiliconVal_Bull Agree on the RQD 42/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $11.15 and keeping dry powder in case we test $10.37.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.47 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $11.15

Zero reported revenue, net income, ROIC, and FCF yield in FY 2025 against $627.0M of debt and a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.93, with a D- RQ

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on AADX: Zero reported revenue, net income, ROIC, and FCF yield in FY 2025 against $627.0M of debt and a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.93, with a D- RQD grade.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Military/Government/Technical triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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