What is VLO's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

VLO's 12-month base price target is $403.78 (range $312.8 to $484.6), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Energy / VLO

PSX (59) EQNR (73) MPC (70) BP (73) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

Q: Should I buy, hold, or sell VLO stock right now?

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) currently earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy — BUY) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 8% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

$381.46 -4.55% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $379.25

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 8% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $111.46B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on VLO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is VLO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $381.46 (-4.55% 1D, market cap $111.46B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, VLO ranks #29 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does VLO compare to PSX and EQNR in the Energy sector?

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Within the Energy sector (Integrated oil Companies), VLO carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 45.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.2%. By comparison, PSX (Phillips 66) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 24.2x, ROIC 9.2%, cap $110.32B) and EQNR (Equinor ASA) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $121.89B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PSX leads on earnings multiple (24.2x) while MPC leads on capital efficiency (16.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VLO?

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Per VLO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001035002), Valero Energy Corporation generated $8.91B in revenue (-15.3% YoY), $2.35B in net income, and $5.83B in free cash flow against $57.99B in total assets and $13.57B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 46x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $379.25 (-0.58%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 65.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VLO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (71/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY VLO SCORES 71/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.36 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (21% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±8.6% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 8 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade A-$459.78-5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B+$436.75-11.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B+$388.48-1.8% Next Q

Current

Grade B-$381.46+6.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: A- (79) → B- (71)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the VLO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 71/100 (B-) score, VLO faces multiple-compression risk if 45.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 46x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($400.28) or 200D SMA ($288.79) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($403.78) toward Bear Floor ($312.80).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VLO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “VLO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 71%NO 29%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

47.230 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

4.36>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

7 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE73% OF RANGE

L: $160$381.46H: $462

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 14 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: C+RQD 27 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: BRQD 30 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on VLO

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (70)

8.2% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 4.17% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (80)

Altman-Z 4.36 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (68)

27/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 14/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like VLO

✓Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.
✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Priced at 46x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (VLO Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

VLO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +51.60%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-03O $384.6H $399.7L $381.5C $381.5VOL 4.24M

RES: $493.5SUP: $381.2SMA50: $400.3SMA200: $288.8

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

VLO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 VLO Butterfly Map → + Track VLO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

33.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -15.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VLO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VLO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VLO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VLO)

Energy Rank #29 of 211 ⚔️ PSX vs VLO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (VLO vs. PSX, EQNR, MPC, BP)

Industry: Integrated oil Companies (15 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) ranks #29 by composite RQD confidence (71/100, grade B-) and #12 by equity capitalization ($111.46B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PSX leads on earnings valuation at 24.2x trailing P/E, while MPC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.9% ROIC and 10.0% gross margin. EQNR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with VLO at 71/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
VLO ACTIVE Valero Energy Corporation	B-	71/100	45.7x	—	8.2%	-4.55%	$111.46B	Benchmark Subject
PSX Phillips 66	C-	59/100	24.2x	12.3%	9.2%	-2.75%	$110.32B	/psx-vs-vlo →
EQNR Equinor ASA	B	73/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	-6.87%	$121.89B	/eqnr-vs-vlo →
MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation	B-	70/100	30.0x	10.0%	16.9%	-3.22%	$124.89B	/mpc-vs-vlo →
BP BP p.l.c.	B	73/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	-4.98%	$131.92B	/bp-vs-vlo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001035002 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) reported GAAP revenue of $8.91B (-15.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $10.51B , and -73.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $2.35B, operating cash flow of $5.83B, and free cash flow of $5.83B (-12.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, VLO closed FY2025 with $57.99B in total assets against $13.57B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.36, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$8.91B	$2.35B	$5.83B	$5.83B	$57.99B	$13.57B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$10.51B	$2.77B	$6.68B	$6.68B	$60.14B	$14.07B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$33.20B	$8.84B	$9.23B	$9.23B	$58.99B	$13.80B

3. VLO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is VLO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does VLO compare to PSX and EQNR in the Energy sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VLO?

Where is VLO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

VLO last traded at $381.46 (-4.55% on volume of 4,288,713 shares), positioning the stock -4.70% below its 50-day simple moving average ($400.28) and +32.09% above its 200-day simple moving average ($288.79). Across its 52-week range of $159.90 to $461.52, VLO sits at the 73.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.6% ($348.65 to $414.27).

Direct Sub-Reports: VLO RQD Cockpit VLO 12M Forecast VLO Earnings & Move VLO Dividends & DRIP VLO Insiders & 13F VLO Whale Options VLO Profit Sankey VLO News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 71/100 (B-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

VLO — Valero Energy Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 71/100, corresponding to a B- letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $381.46 (-4.55% 1D, market capitalization $111.46B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8.2%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 10.6%, and free cash flow yield of 4.17%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (15/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (14/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 0.89x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 4.36, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.49x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is a NYSE-listed company in the Energy sector, operating within the Integrated oil Companies industry..3B. —: a detailed description of products sold, customer base, or revenue model.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) reported $8.91B in annual revenue (up from $10.51B in FY2024, -15.3% YoY) and $2.35B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($33.20B revenue, $8.84B net income) through FY2025, VLO scaled operating cash flow to $5.83B and free cash flow to $5.83B, backed by $57.99B in total assets against $13.57B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (B- • RQD 71/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 15/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $159.90 – $461.52 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Priced at 46x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Investors must weigh 45.7x trailing P/E and 26.4x EV/EBITDA against 10.6% operating margins and a 0.89x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

—: upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector correlations. The investor should note that second-order ripple analysis cannot be performed from the provided sources.

Key Question #1: Can VLO sustain or expand its 10.6% operating margin and 8.2% ROIC against Integrated oil Companies peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $8.91B and free cash flow of $5.83B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $13.57B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is VLO's 38.4x forward P/E multiple to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.89x)?

VLO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to VLO Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 21h ago

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Valero's Exceptional, Unwarranted Profitability Comes To An End

Seeking Alpha report covering Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingKey • 1d ago

Valero Energy Corp Stock (VLO) Moved Up by 3.12% on Oct 8: What Signal Does It Send?

TradingKey report covering Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Hits Fresh High: Is There Still Room to Run?

Yahoo Finance report covering Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Valero Energy: Strong Earnings, But The Stock Already Prices In A Strong Refining Cycle

Seeking Alpha report covering Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Valero Energy (VLO) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: Here's Why

Yahoo Finance report covering Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is Attracting Investor Attention: Here is What You Should Know

Yahoo Finance report covering Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Why Valero Energy Stock Triumphed Today

Yahoo Finance report covering Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

VLO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $381.46?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON VLO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $527.55 (+32.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance-sheet strength (Altman Z 4.36, Piotroski F 7/9, Debt/Equity 0.49) earns the highest RQD pillar score of 16/20.

Long VLO at $399.66 targeting $527.55. Forensic balance-sheet strength (Altman Z 4.36, Piotroski F 7/9, Debt/Equity 0.49) earns the highest RQD pillar score of 16/20.. Institutional whale score is 15/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $159.90 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@TapeReader_Pro Agree on the RQD 71/100 quality, though with 0.89 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $399.66 and keeping dry powder in case we test $371.68.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $299.75 (-25.0%)

Spot @ $399.66

Elevated valuation with P/E (TTM) of 45.7 against declining reported net income from $8.84B in FY 2023 to $2.35B in FY 2025.

I respect the product at Valero Energy Corporation, but the stock at $399.66 is a different story. Elevated valuation with P/E (TTM) of 45.7 against declining reported net income from $8.84B in FY 2023 to $2.35B in FY 2025.. FCF yield is 4.17% and RQD sits at 71/100 (B-) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?