Should I buy, hold, or sell RGLD stock right now?

Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold — HOLD) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. Solid 69.3% gross margin (6% return on capital), mixed timing at 43x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is RGLD's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

RGLD's 12-month base price target is $238.11 (range $185.73 to $321.56), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Materials / RGLD

KGC (52) PAAS (53) CDE (66) GFI (54) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$235.99 +3.16% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $236.88

Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $19.38B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on RGLD Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RGLD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Royal Gold Inc. (NASDAQ: RGLD) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $235.99 (+3.16% 1D, market cap $19.38B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, RGLD ranks #34 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RGLD compare to KGC and PAAS in the Materials sector?

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Within the Materials sector (Precious Metals), RGLD carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 43.0x, gross margin of 69.3%, and ROIC of 6.4%. By comparison, KGC (Kinross Gold Corporation) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $23.72B) and PAAS (Pan American Silver Corp.) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $15.75B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CDE leads on earnings multiple (24.6x) while CDE leads on capital efficiency (15.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RGLD?

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Per RGLD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000085535), Royal Gold Inc. generated $1.03B in revenue (+43.2% YoY), $466.3M in net income, and $658.5M in free cash flow against $9.54B in total assets and $895.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 43x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $236.89 (+0.38%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 63.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.5% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RGLD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (60/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY RGLD SCORES 60/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 5.70 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 63.9% FCF Margin ($658.5M FCF) & 69.3% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$224.84+7.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$242.00+0% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$241.95-2.5% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$235.99+0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (52) → C- (60)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the RGLD Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 60/100 (C-) score, RGLD faces multiple-compression risk if 43.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 43x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 66.8% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($244.31) or 200D SMA ($240.77) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($238.11) toward Bear Floor ($185.73).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RGLD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “RGLD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 60%NO 40%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

43.830 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

5.70>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

9 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE49% OF RANGE

L: $169$235.99H: $306

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (69.3% gross margin), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 14 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on RGLD

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (70)

6.4% ROIC with 69.3% gross margin and 3.28% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (75)

Altman-Z 5.70 and Piotroski 9/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (52)

20/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 11/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like RGLD

✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Priced at 43x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (RGLD Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

RGLD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.31%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-03O $236.8H $236.8L $228.8C $236.0VOL 934.5K

RES: $285.3SUP: $226.8SMA50: $244.3SMA200: $240.8

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RGLD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RGLD Butterfly Map → + Track RGLD →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

32.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +43.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RGLD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RGLD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RGLD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RGLD)

Materials Rank #34 of 270 ⚔️ KGC vs RGLD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (RGLD vs. KGC, PAAS, CDE, GFI)

Industry: Precious Metals (74 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD) ranks #34 by composite RQD confidence (60/100, grade C-) and #28 by equity capitalization ($19.38B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CDE leads on earnings valuation at 24.6x trailing P/E, while CDE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 15.1% ROIC and — gross margin. CDE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with RGLD at 60/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
RGLD ACTIVE Royal Gold Inc.	C-	60/100	43.0x	69.3%	6.4%	+3.16%	$19.38B	Benchmark Subject
KGC Kinross Gold Corporation	D+	52/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	+2.14%	$23.72B	/kgc-vs-rgld →
PAAS Pan American Silver Corp.	D+	53/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	+2.48%	$15.75B	/paas-vs-rgld →
CDE Coeur Mining Inc.	C+	66/100	24.6x	—	15.1%	+1.68%	$13.47B	/cde-vs-rgld →
GFI Gold Fields Limited	D+	54/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	+5.62%	$29.46B	/gfi-vs-rgld →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000085535 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD) reported GAAP revenue of $1.03B (+43.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $719.4M , and +70.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $466.3M, operating cash flow of $704.8M, and free cash flow of $658.5M (+32.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, RGLD closed FY2025 with $9.54B in total assets against $895.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.70, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.03B	$466.3M	$704.8M	$658.5M	$9.54B	$895.4M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$719.4M	$332.0M	$529.5M	$497.1M	$3.39B	$0
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$605.7M	$239.4M	$415.8M	$388.5M	$11.04B	$2.58B

3. RGLD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RGLD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does RGLD compare to KGC and PAAS in the Materials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RGLD?

Where is RGLD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RGLD last traded at $235.99 (+3.16% on volume of 584,891 shares), positioning the stock -3.41% below its 50-day simple moving average ($244.31) and -1.99% below its 200-day simple moving average ($240.77). Across its 52-week range of $168.88 to $306.25, RGLD sits at the 48.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.0% ($221.83 to $250.15).

Direct Sub-Reports: RGLD RQD Cockpit RGLD 12M Forecast RGLD Earnings & Move RGLD Dividends & DRIP RGLD Insiders & 13F RGLD Whale Options RGLD Profit Sankey RGLD News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 60/100 (C-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

RGLD — Royal Gold Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 60/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $235.99 (+3.16% 1D, market capitalization $19.38B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 6.4%, gross margin of 69.3%, operating margin of 61.9%, and free cash flow yield of 3.28%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.09x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 5.70, Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.13x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Materials sector and Precious Metals industry.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD) reported $1.03B in annual revenue (up from $719.4M in FY2024, +43.2% YoY) and $466.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($605.7M revenue, $239.4M net income) through FY2025, RGLD scaled operating cash flow to $704.8M and free cash flow to $658.5M, backed by $9.54B in total assets against $895.4M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 60/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of 3.28% and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $168.88 – $306.25 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Priced at 43x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Investors must weigh 43.0x trailing P/E and 30.6x EV/EBITDA against 61.9% operating margins and a 1.09x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports no upstream or downstream links and no proprietary signals, so supply-chain dependencies, sector correlations, and 2nd-order bottlenecks cannot be mapped from the provided sources.

Key Question #1: Can RGLD sustain or expand its 61.9% operating margin and 6.4% ROIC against Precious Metals peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.03B and free cash flow of $658.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $895.4M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is RGLD's 36.1x forward P/E multiple to Materials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.09x)?

RGLD Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to RGLD Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Royal Gold (RGLD) Stock May Be 11% Overvalued On Cash Flow

Yahoo Finance report covering Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Royal Gold: I Still Think It's Cheap

Seeking Alpha report covering Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟢 CATALYST TradingView • 1d ago

Royal Gold Eyes Growth as Acquisitions Extend Reserve Life and Fuel Cash Flow

TradingView report covering Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST ChartMill • 1d ago

Royal Gold (NASDAQ:RGLD) Combines Strong Growth With a High-Quality Technical Setup

ChartMill report covering Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟢 CATALYST Investing.com • 1d ago

Raymond James raises Royal Gold stock price target on business model strength

Investing.com report covering Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE GuruFocus • 1d ago

Royal Gold Inc (RGLD) Stock Down 3.0% -- Now Undervalued? GF Score: 91/100

GuruFocus report covering Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Royal Gold Provides Preliminary Financial Information and Details for the Release of Financial Results for the Third Quarter 2026

Yahoo Finance report covering Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE www.debelegger.nl • 1d ago

Royal Gold (RGLD) Stock Price, Chart & Analysis

www.debelegger.nl report covering Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

RGLD Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $235.99?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON RGLD 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $285.96 (+25.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet is strong (Altman Z 5.7, Piotroski F 9/9, Debt/Equity 0.13) with 69.3% gross and 61.9% operating margins.

Don't sleep on RGLD's setup in Materials. Forensic balance sheet is strong (Altman Z 5.7, Piotroski F 9/9, Debt/Equity 0.13) with 69.3% gross and 61.9% operating margins.. Beta of 1.09 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (60/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Fair point on 43.0x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Precious Metals. If gross margin (69.3%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $187.59 (-18.0%)

Spot @ $228.77

Valuation is rich at 43 P/E TTM and 30.6 EV/EBITDA against only 6.4% ROIC and a 3.28% FCF yield, with weak whale flow (9/20).

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short RGLD above $228.77. Valuation is rich at 43 P/E TTM and 30.6 EV/EBITDA against only 6.4% ROIC and a 3.28% FCF yield, with weak whale flow (9/20).. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20) and FCF yield (3.28%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $306.25.