Should I buy, hold, or sell NHC stock right now?

National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) currently earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy — BUY) with 72/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 10% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

What is NHC's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

NHC's 12-month base price target is $214.82 (range $165.71 to $260.61), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Health Care / NHC

SGRY (66) BKD (32) MD (77) ARDT (69) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$202.09 -1.96% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $201.86

National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 72/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 10% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $3.23B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NHC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NHC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

▼

As of 2026-11-03, National HealthCare Corporation (NYSE: NHC) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 72/100 at a spot price of $202.09 (-1.96% 1D, market cap $3.23B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, NHC ranks #61 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NHC compare to SGRY and BKD in the Health Care sector?

▼

Within the Health Care sector (Hospital/Nursing Management), NHC carries a Roarable B (72/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 27.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.1%. By comparison, SGRY (Surgery Partners Inc.) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 9.9%, cap $3.04B) and BKD (Brookdale Senior Living Inc.) posts a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.3%, cap $2.48B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARDT leads on earnings multiple (12.8x) while MD leads on capital efficiency (33.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NHC?

▼

Per NHC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001047335), National HealthCare Corporation generated $1.52B in revenue (+16.1% YoY), $120.0M in net income, and $148.6M in free cash flow against $1.53B in total assets and $32.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $201.87 (-0.11%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 9.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 72/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.7% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk A-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+6.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NHC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (72/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NHC SCORES 72/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.61 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 9.8% FCF Margin ($148.6M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade A-$231.39+7.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B+$247.94-14.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B+$211.81-4.6% Next Q

Current

Grade B$202.09+7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: A- (80) → B (72)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NHC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 72/100 (B) score, NHC faces multiple-compression risk if 27.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($225.10) or 200D SMA ($194.80) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($214.82) toward Bear Floor ($165.71).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NHC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NHC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 72%NO 28%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

37.230 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

6.61>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

8 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE65% OF RANGE

L: $118$202.09H: $248

1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (steady margins and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: B+RQD 16 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: A-RQD 33 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on NHC

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (80)

10.1% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 4.47% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (90)

Altman-Z 6.61 and Piotroski 8/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (63)

23/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 15/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like NHC

✓Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (NHC Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

NHC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +18.45%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN

2026-11-03O $212.2H $212.2L $202.1C $202.1VOL 136.0K

RES: $250.1SUP: $226.2SMA50: $225.1SMA200: $194.8

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NHC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NHC Butterfly Map → + Track NHC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

21.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +16.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NHC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NHC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NHC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NHC)

Health Care Rank #61 of 1016 ⚔️ SGRY vs NHC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (NHC vs. SGRY, BKD, MD, ARDT)

Industry: Hospital/Nursing Management (14 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) ranks #61 by composite RQD confidence (72/100, grade B) and #199 by equity capitalization ($3.23B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARDT leads on earnings valuation at 12.8x trailing P/E, while MD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.6% ROIC and — gross margin. MD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 77/100 (B+) compared with NHC at 72/100 (B).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NHC ACTIVE National HealthCare Corporation	B	72/100	27.7x	—	10.1%	-1.96%	$3.23B	Benchmark Subject
SGRY Surgery Partners Inc.	C+	66/100	—	—	9.9%	-0.39%	$3.04B	/sgry-vs-nhc →
BKD Brookdale Senior Living Inc.	E	32/100	—	26.2%	0.3%	+0.48%	$2.48B	/bkd-vs-nhc →
MD Pediatrix Medical Group Inc.	B+	77/100	14.3x	—	33.6%	+2.99%	$2.33B	/md-vs-nhc →
ARDT Ardent Health Inc.	C+	69/100	12.8x	—	10.5%	-2.49%	$1.70B	/ardt-vs-nhc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001047335

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) reported GAAP revenue of $1.52B (+16.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.31B , and +33.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $120.0M, operating cash flow of $185.1M, and free cash flow of $148.6M (+86.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, NHC closed FY2025 with $1.53B in total assets against $32.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.61, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.52B	$120.0M	$185.1M	$148.6M	$1.53B	$32.5M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.31B	$101.9M	$107.3M	$79.7M	$1.52B	$129.5M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.14B	$66.8M	$111.2M	$111.2M	—	—

3. NHC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NHC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does NHC compare to SGRY and BKD in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NHC?

Where is NHC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NHC last traded at $202.09 (-1.96% on volume of 165,204 shares), positioning the stock -10.22% below its 50-day simple moving average ($225.10) and +3.74% above its 200-day simple moving average ($194.80). Across its 52-week range of $118.14 to $248.20, NHC sits at the 64.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 37.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.6% ($186.73 to $217.45).

Direct Sub-Reports: NHC RQD Cockpit NHC 12M Forecast NHC Earnings & Move NHC Dividends & DRIP NHC Insiders & 13F NHC Whale Options NHC Profit Sankey NHC News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 72/100 (B) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NHC — National HealthCare Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 72/100, corresponding to a B letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $202.09 (-1.96% 1D, market capitalization $3.23B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (16/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 10.1%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 8.5%, and free cash flow yield of 4.47%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (18/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (15/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 6.61, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.03x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Hospital/Nursing Management industry,. The profile describes it as a Health Care issuer operating in that industry with a market capitalization of $3.3B. Per the market data, gross margin is reported as 0%, operating margin is 8.5%, and net margin is 7.9%. —: specific products, customer segments, or revenue model descriptions.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) reported $1.52B in annual revenue (up from $1.31B in FY2024, +16.1% YoY) and $120.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.14B revenue, $66.8M net income) through FY2025, NHC scaled operating cash flow to $185.1M and free cash flow to $148.6M, backed by $1.53B in total assets against $32.5M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (B • RQD 72/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 16/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $118.14 – $248.20 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 27.7x trailing P/E and 20.5x EV/EBITDA against 8.5% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

—: upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector-correlation relationships. The sector assignment (Health Care) and industry (Hospital/Nursing Management) are the only structural context provided.

Key Question #1: Can NHC sustain or expand its 8.5% operating margin and 10.1% ROIC against Hospital/Nursing Management peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.52B and free cash flow of $148.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $32.5M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is NHC's 23.3x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

NHC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NHC Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 20h ago

National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) Stock Forecasts

Yahoo Finance report covering National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 23h ago

National HealthCare: Improving Business Metrics Drive Future Operating Leverage (NYSE:NHC)

Seeking Alpha report covering National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH AlphaStreet • 1d ago

National HealthCare Drops 5.2% Amid Sector-Wide Selling

AlphaStreet report covering National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

National HealthCare (NHC) Stock Price, News & Analysis $NHC

MarketBeat report covering National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

Three entities report National HealthCare (NHC) shares while disclaiming beneficial ownership.

Stock Titan report covering National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

National HealthCare (NYSEAMERICAN:NHC) Stock Breaks Above 200-Day Moving Average - Time to Sell?

MarketBeat report covering National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE https://www.dars.gov.et/ • 1d ago

National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) Slips to $210.28 as Shares Ease 0.72% - Earnings Sentiment

https://www.dars.gov.et/ report covering National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE https://www.siam.in/ • 1d ago

National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) Holds Firm Near $248 as Buyers Defend the Upside - Call Wall

https://www.siam.in/ report covering National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NHC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $202.09?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NHC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $267.98 (+30.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue grew from $1.14B to $1.52B over FY 2023–FY 2025 with a 0.03 Debt/Equity ratio and an Altman Z-Score of 6.61, supporting the

Here is why I am bullish on NHC here at $206.14: Revenue grew from $1.14B to $1.52B over FY 2023–FY 2025 with a 0.03 Debt/Equity ratio and an Altman Z-Score of 6.61, supporting the rating's 18/20 balance sheet pillar.. Compare NHC's 8.5% operating margin and 10.1% ROIC against the rest of Hospital/Nursing Management. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $195.83 are getting bought.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@BreakoutHunter Agree on the RQD 72/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $206.14 and keeping dry powder in case we test $191.71.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $173.16 (-16.0%)

Spot @ $206.14

Valuation & margin reality check on NHC at $206.14 before chasing here

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short NHC above $206.14. Valuation & margin reality check on NHC at $206.14 before chasing here. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (16/20) and FCF yield (4.47%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $248.20.