Should I buy, hold, or sell MTH stock right now?

Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold — HOLD) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (8% return on capital), mixed timing at 9x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is MTH's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

MTH's 12-month base price target is $69.32 (range $54.07 to $89.65), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / MTH

SKY (81) GEO (47) CVCO (80) ECG (46) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$69.01 +7.04% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $69.75

Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $4.20B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MTH Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MTH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Meritage Homes Corporation (NYSE: MTH) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $69.01 (+7.04% 1D, market cap $4.20B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MTH ranks #343 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MTH compare to SKY and GEO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Homebuilding), MTH carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.0%. By comparison, SKY (Champion Homes Inc.) holds a A- grade (81/100 RQD, P/E 21.3x, ROIC 20.8%, cap $4.60B) and GEO (Geo Group Inc) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E 14.8x, ROIC 6.6%, cap $3.75B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MTH leads on earnings multiple (9.3x) while ECG leads on capital efficiency (30.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTH?

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Per MTH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000833079), Meritage Homes Corporation generated $1.50B in revenue (-42.4% YoY), $453.0M in net income, and $92.6M in free cash flow against $7.62B in total assets and $1.09B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $69.76 (+1.08%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 6.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MTH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MTH SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.70 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (55.4) create a -11 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$58.01+2.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$59.32+4.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$62.02+11.3% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$69.01+0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (51) → C- (59)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MTH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, MTH faces multiple-compression risk if 9.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($63.80) or 200D SMA ($68.72) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($69.32) toward Bear Floor ($54.07).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MTH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MTH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

55.430 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDWATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)

2.70>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

7 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE43% OF RANGE

L: $57$69.01H: $85

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 10 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on MTH

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (50)

8.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.20% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (70)

Altman-Z 2.70 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (58)

26/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 9/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like MTH

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (MTH Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MTH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +9.45%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-11-03O $64.49H $69.01L $64.47C $69.01VOL 1.33M

RES: $59.97SUP: $51.26SMA50: $63.80SMA200: $68.72

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MTH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MTH Butterfly Map → + Track MTH →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

-2.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -42.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MTH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MTH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MTH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MTH)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #343 of 1009 ⚔️ SKY vs MTH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MTH vs. SKY, GEO, CVCO, ECG)

Industry: Homebuilding (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) ranks #343 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #298 by equity capitalization ($4.20B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MTH leads on earnings valuation at 9.3x trailing P/E, while ECG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.4% ROIC and 12.1% gross margin. SKY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 81/100 (A-) compared with MTH at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MTH ACTIVE Meritage Homes Corporation	C-	59/100	9.3x	—	8.0%	+7.04%	$4.20B	Benchmark Subject
SKY Champion Homes Inc.	A-	81/100	21.3x	26.4%	20.8%	+4.72%	$4.60B	/sky-vs-mth →
GEO Geo Group Inc	D	47/100	14.8x	—	6.6%	-2.21%	$3.75B	/geo-vs-mth →
CVCO Cavco Industries Inc.	B+	80/100	22.0x	23.5%	17.6%	+7.09%	$4.76B	/cvco-vs-mth →
ECG Everus Construction Group Inc.	D	46/100	27.3x	12.1%	30.4%	+0.35%	$5.24B	/ecg-vs-mth →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000833079 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) reported GAAP revenue of $1.50B (-42.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.60B , and -38.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $453.0M, operating cash flow of $118.3M, and free cash flow of $92.6M (+136.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, MTH closed FY2025 with $7.62B in total assets against $1.09B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.70, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.50B	$453.0M	$118.3M	$92.6M	$7.62B	$1.09B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.60B	$786.2M	-$227.6M	-$256.2M	$7.16B	$909.5M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$2.44B	$738.7M	$355.6M	$355.6M	$2.31B	$540.9M

3. MTH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MTH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MTH compare to SKY and GEO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTH?

Where is MTH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MTH last traded at $69.01 (+7.04% on volume of 1,603,925 shares), positioning the stock +8.17% above its 50-day simple moving average ($63.80) and +0.42% above its 200-day simple moving average ($68.72). Across its 52-week range of $56.66 to $85.38, MTH sits at the 43.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.4% ($63.90 to $74.12).

Direct Sub-Reports: MTH RQD Cockpit MTH 12M Forecast MTH Earnings & Move MTH Dividends & DRIP MTH Insiders & 13F MTH Whale Options MTH Profit Sankey MTH News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 59/100 (C-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MTH — Meritage Homes Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 59/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $69.01 (+7.04% 1D, market capitalization $4.20B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 47.0%, and free cash flow yield of 2.20%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.05x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.70, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.20x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Homebuilding industry. The profile establishes its market capitalization of $4.2B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) reported $1.50B in annual revenue (up from $2.60B in FY2024, -42.4% YoY) and $453.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.44B revenue, $738.7M net income) through FY2025, MTH scaled operating cash flow to $118.3M and free cash flow to $92.6M, backed by $7.62B in total assets against $1.09B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 59/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 2.20% and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $56.66 – $85.38 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 9.3x trailing P/E and 7.7x EV/EBITDA against 47.0% operating margins and a 1.05x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— The only sector context provided is Consumer Discretionary / Homebuilding.

Key Question #1: Can MTH sustain or expand its 47.0% operating margin and 8.0% ROIC against Homebuilding peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.50B and free cash flow of $92.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.09B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is MTH's 8.6x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.05x)?

MTH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MTH Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 22h ago

What Meritage Homes (MTH) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call

Yahoo Finance report covering Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Meritage Homes: Cheaper On Book Than Any Year-End In A Decade (NYSE:MTH)

Seeking Alpha report covering Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH TradingView • 1d ago

Meritage Homes Corporation Stock 12‑Month Price Target Cut to $76.44, Implies 22% Upside

TradingView report covering Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE www.marketscreener.com • 1d ago

Earnings Flash (MTH) Meritage Homes Corporation Posts Q3 Adjusted EPS $1.11 per Share, vs. FactSet Est of $1.16

www.marketscreener.com report covering Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 1d ago

Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) Stock Forecasts

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

Revenue from completed home sales fell 17% to $1.2 billion at Meritage Homes.

Stock Titan report covering Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Meritage Homes Corporation Estimates – NYSE:MTH

TradingView report covering Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Meritage Homes Corporation (NYSE:MTH) Fell Short of Analyst Expectations: Here's What You Need To Know

Simply Wall St report covering Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MTH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $69.01?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MTH 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $76.72 (+19.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Low trailing valuation (P/E 9.3, EV/EBITDA 7.7) paired with a 16/20 insider-conviction pillar and a 14/20 forensic balance sheet sugges

Don't sleep on MTH's setup in Consumer Discretionary. Low trailing valuation (P/E 9.3, EV/EBITDA 7.7) paired with a 16/20 insider-conviction pillar and a 14/20 forensic balance sheet suggests room for re-rating if earnings hold.. Beta of 1.05 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (59/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@DeepValue_CFA Agree on the RQD 59/100 quality, though with 1.05 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $64.47 and keeping dry powder in case we test $59.96.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $53.51 (-17.0%)

Spot @ $64.47

Revenue from completed home sales fell 17% to $1.2 billion while net income declined from $786.2M to $453.0M and debt rose to $1.09B,

Fading this rally in MTH at $64.47. Revenue from completed home sales fell 17% to $1.2 billion while net income declined from $786.2M to $453.0M and debt rose to $1.09B, with the cash-engine pillar scored only 10/20.. With a beta of 1.05 and the stock sitting at $64.47 (52-wk range $56.66–$85.38), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.