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Stock Ratings / Industrials / MSM
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MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$119.62 -1.16% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $119.66

MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 75/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (40.8% gross margin, 13% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $6.76B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MSM Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MSM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (NYSE: MSM) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $119.62 (-1.16% 1D, market cap $6.76B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, MSM ranks #19 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MSM compare to ZWS and RAL in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), MSM carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 34.4x, gross margin of 40.8%, and ROIC of 13.2%. By comparison, ZWS (Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 37.3x, ROIC 12.3%, cap $7.40B) and RAL (Ralliant Corporation) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $7.44B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AGCO leads on earnings multiple (10.4x) while MSM leads on capital efficiency (13.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MSM?
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Per MSM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-08-30, CIK 0001003078), MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. generated $3.77B in revenue (-1.3% YoY), $199.3M in net income, and $240.9M in free cash flow against $2.49B in total assets and $496.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (40.8% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $119.66 (+0.03%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 6.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 75/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.7% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B
025507510075
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk B+
Cash (16)Whales (12)SEC (18)Macro (14)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.6% Base Target
$152 Bull$129 Base$98 Bear
📬 FREE MSM RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MSM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (75/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MSM SCORES 75/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.14 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 6.4% FCF Margin ($240.9M FCF) & 40.8% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-8 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
83
Grade A$132.58+0.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
80
Grade A-$132.82-7.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
78
Grade A-$122.59-2.4% Next Q
Current
75
Grade B$119.62+7.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: A (83) → B (75)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MSM Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 75/100 (B) score, MSM faces multiple-compression risk if 34.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 38.3% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($123.38) or 200D SMA ($109.95) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($128.77) toward Bear Floor ($98.09).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MSM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MSM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Nov 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 75%NO 25%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
45.630 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
6.14>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
7 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE74% OF RANGE
L: $79$119.62H: $134
1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (40.8% gross margin and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: B+RQD 16 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: C+RQD 27 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: B+RQD 32 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on MSM

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BULLISH (80)

13.2% ROIC with 40.8% gross margin and 3.51% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (90)

Altman-Z 6.14 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BULLISH (68)

27/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 14/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like MSM
  • ✓Strong cash generator (40.8% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
  • ✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (MSM Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
MSM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +18.20%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $122.9H $122.9L $119.6C $119.6VOL 742.0K
RES: $134.6SUP: $110.7SMA50: $123.4SMA200: $110.0
$137.1$124.1$111.2$98.26$85.33RES $134.6SUP $110.7$119.62026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MSM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MSM Butterfly Map → + Track MSM →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
26.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -1.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MSM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MSM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MSM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MSM)

Industrials Rank #19 of 486 ⚔️ ZWS vs MSM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (MSM vs. ZWS, RAL, GTES, AGCO)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM) ranks #19 by composite RQD confidence (75/100, grade B) and #123 by equity capitalization ($6.76B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AGCO leads on earnings valuation at 10.4x trailing P/E, while MSM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.2% ROIC and 40.8% gross margin. MSM currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 75/100 (B).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MSM ACTIVE
MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc.
B 75/100 34.4x 40.8% 13.2% -1.16% $6.76B Benchmark Subject
ZWS
Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation
C- 61/100 37.3x 45.1% 12.3% -0.29% $7.40B /zws-vs-msm →
RAL
Ralliant Corporation
D 49/100 — 50.3% -35.0% -1.34% $7.44B /ral-vs-msm →
GTES
Gates Industrial Corporation Ltd.
D+ 57/100 26.4x 39.8% 7.8% +0.76% $6.03B /gtes-vs-msm →
AGCO
AGCO Corporation
C- 60/100 10.4x 25.5% 8.2% +2.26% $7.65B /agco-vs-msm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-08-30 • CIK 0001003078 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-08-30), MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM) reported GAAP revenue of $3.77B (-1.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.82B , and -6.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $199.3M, operating cash flow of $333.7M, and free cash flow of $240.9M (-22.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, MSM closed FY2025 with $2.49B in total assets against $496.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.14, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-08-30 $3.77B $199.3M $333.7M $240.9M $2.49B $496.9M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-08-31 $3.82B $258.6M $410.7M $311.3M $2.47B $490.6M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-09-02 $4.01B $343.2M $699.6M $519.2M $4.81B $1.13B

3. MSM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MSM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (NYSE: MSM) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $119.62 (-1.16% 1D, market cap $6.76B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, MSM ranks #19 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MSM compare to ZWS and RAL in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), MSM carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 34.4x, gross margin of 40.8%, and ROIC of 13.2%. By comparison, ZWS (Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 37.3x, ROIC 12.3%, cap $7.40B) and RAL (Ralliant Corporation) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $7.44B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AGCO leads on earnings multiple (10.4x) while MSM leads on capital efficiency (13.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MSM?

Per MSM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-08-30, CIK 0001003078), MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. generated $3.77B in revenue (-1.3% YoY), $199.3M in net income, and $240.9M in free cash flow against $2.49B in total assets and $496.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (40.8% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MSM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MSM last traded at $119.62 (-1.16% on volume of 707,039 shares), positioning the stock -3.05% below its 50-day simple moving average ($123.38) and +8.79% above its 200-day simple moving average ($109.95). Across its 52-week range of $78.80 to $133.95, MSM sits at the 74.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.2% ($112.20 to $127.04).

Direct Sub-Reports: MSM RQD Cockpit MSM 12M Forecast MSM Earnings & Move MSM Dividends & DRIP MSM Insiders & 13F MSM Whale Options MSM Profit Sankey MSM News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 75/100 (B) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MSM — MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-08-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 75/100, corresponding to a B letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $119.62 (-1.16% 1D, market capitalization $6.76B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (16/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 13.2%, gross margin of 40.8%, operating margin of 8.0%, and free cash flow yield of 3.51%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (14/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 1.05x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 6.14, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.34x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, Industrial Machinery/Components industry. The profile identifies the company as an industrial distributor with a $6.9B market capitalization. Gross margin is 40.8%, operating margin 8%, and net margin 5.3%, per the market data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-08-30), MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM) reported $3.77B in annual revenue (up from $3.82B in FY2024, -1.3% YoY) and $199.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($4.01B revenue, $343.2M net income) through FY2025, MSM scaled operating cash flow to $333.7M and free cash flow to $240.9M, backed by $2.49B in total assets against $496.9M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B • RQD 75/100): Strong cash generator (40.8% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 16/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $78.80 – $133.95 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 34.4x trailing P/E and 19.2x EV/EBITDA against 8.0% operating margins and a 1.05x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream suppliers, downstream customers, and sector correlations beyond the Industrials / Industrial Machinery/Components classification are — Investors should note that the absence of mapped links means 2nd-order ripple effects cannot be assessed from these sources.

  • Key Question #1: Can MSM sustain or expand its 8.0% operating margin and 13.2% ROIC against Industrial Machinery/Components peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.77B and free cash flow of $240.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $496.9M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MSM's 32.0x forward P/E multiple to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.05x)?

MSM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MSM Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MSM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $119.62?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MSM 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MSM:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $140.38 (+16.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet is strong (Altman Z 6.14, Piotroski F 7/9, Debt/Equity 0.34) with ROIC of 13.2%, supporting a Roarable Buy grade

Picked up a starter position in MSM in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $121.02. Forensic balance sheet is strong (Altman Z 6.14, Piotroski F 7/9, Debt/Equity 0.34) with ROIC of 13.2%, supporting a Roarable Buy grade of 75.. Trading inside a $78.80–$133.95 52-week range with 3.51% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Industrial Machinery/Components multiples expand this quarter.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — MSM's 18/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $99.24 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $121.02

Revenue, operating income, net income, and FCF have all declined across FY 2023–FY 2025 while the stock trades at 34.4x TTM earnings an

Fading this rally in MSM at $121.02. Revenue, operating income, net income, and FCF have all declined across FY 2023–FY 2025 while the stock trades at 34.4x TTM earnings and 19.2x EV/EBITDA.. With a beta of 1.05 and the stock sitting at $121.02 (52-wk range $78.80–$133.95), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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