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Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$23.26 +0.43% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $23.23

Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 47/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $11.62B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MAIR Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MAIR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Madison Air Solutions Corporation (NYSE: MAIR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $23.26 (+0.43% 1D, market cap $11.62B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Active quantitative signal LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND (BEARISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MAIR compare to DCI and PPIH in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Pollution Control Equipment), MAIR carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.6%. By comparison, DCI (Donaldson Company Inc.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 26.9x, ROIC 19.5%, cap $9.62B) and PPIH (Perma-Pipe International Holdings Inc.) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 14.4x, ROIC 27.5%, cap $240.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, PPIH leads on earnings multiple (14.4x) while PPIH leads on capital efficiency (27.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MAIR?
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Per MAIR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002098430), Madison Air Solutions Corporation generated $3.43B in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $8.18B in total assets and $3.25B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $23.23 (-0.11%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510047
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D
Cash (9)Whales (5)SEC (12)Macro (8)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.9% Base Target
$47 Bull$22 Base$17 Bear
📬 FREE MAIR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MAIR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (47/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MAIR SCORES 47/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+13/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.71 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
55
Grade C$23.28-0.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
52
Grade C-$23.22+2.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
50
Grade C-$23.88-2.6% Next Q
Current
47
Grade D$23.26-5.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (55) → D (47)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MAIR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MAIR currently carries a cautious 47/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($24.49) and Max Pain ($24.42) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $46.73.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MAIR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MAIR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 47%NO 53%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
4430 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)
1.71>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
8 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE6% OF RANGE
L: $22$23.26H: $45
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 9 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on MAIR

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (45)

13.6% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.21% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (60)

Altman-Z 1.71 and Piotroski 8/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (43)

18/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 8/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like MAIR
  • ✓Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MAIR)

  • ✓Walkthrough of MAIR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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MAIR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -40.93%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $24.56H $24.56L $23.16C $23.26VOL 1.83M
RES: $23.89SUP: $17.88SMA50: $24.49SMA200: $32.02
$46.08$39.54$33.00$26.47$19.93RES $23.89SUP $17.88$23.262026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MAIR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MAIR Butterfly Map → + Track MAIR →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
25.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +17.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MAIR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MAIR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MAIR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MAIR)

Industrials Rank #252 of 486 ⚔️ DCI vs MAIR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (MAIR vs. DCI, PPIH, FTEK, WTS)

Industry: Pollution Control Equipment (4 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR) ranks #252 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #91 by equity capitalization ($11.62B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PPIH leads on earnings valuation at 14.4x trailing P/E, while PPIH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 27.5% ROIC and 32.9% gross margin. WTS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with MAIR at 47/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MAIR ACTIVE
Madison Air Solutions Corporation
D 47/100 32.8x — 13.6% +0.43% $11.62B Benchmark Subject
DCI
Donaldson Company Inc.
D+ 57/100 26.9x 34.8% 19.5% +2.86% $9.62B /dci-vs-mair →
PPIH
Perma-Pipe International Holdings Inc.
D 48/100 14.4x 32.9% 27.5% +1.40% $240.1M /ppih-vs-mair →
FTEK
Fuel Tech Inc.
D- 39/100 — 46.4% -10.4% -1.72% $45.3M /ftek-vs-mair →
WTS
Watts Water Technologies Inc.
C 65/100 34.4x 49.5% 19.5% +2.20% $11.60B /wts-vs-mair →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002098430 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR) reported GAAP revenue of $3.43B , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, MAIR closed FY2025 with $8.18B in total assets against $3.25B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.71, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $3.43B $0 $0 $0 $8.18B $3.25B

3. MAIR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MAIR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Madison Air Solutions Corporation (NYSE: MAIR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $23.26 (+0.43% 1D, market cap $11.62B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Active quantitative signal LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND (BEARISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.

How does MAIR compare to DCI and PPIH in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Pollution Control Equipment), MAIR carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.6%. By comparison, DCI (Donaldson Company Inc.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 26.9x, ROIC 19.5%, cap $9.62B) and PPIH (Perma-Pipe International Holdings Inc.) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 14.4x, ROIC 27.5%, cap $240.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, PPIH leads on earnings multiple (14.4x) while PPIH leads on capital efficiency (27.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MAIR?

Per MAIR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002098430), Madison Air Solutions Corporation generated $3.43B in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $8.18B in total assets and $3.25B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MAIR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MAIR last traded at $23.26 (+0.43% on volume of 2,252,618 shares), positioning the stock -5.02% below its 50-day simple moving average ($24.49) and -27.36% below its 200-day simple moving average ($32.02). Across its 52-week range of $21.96 to $44.50, MAIR sits at the 5.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.1% ($21.14 to $25.38).

Direct Sub-Reports: MAIR RQD Cockpit MAIR 12M Forecast MAIR Earnings & Move MAIR Dividends & DRIP MAIR Insiders & 13F MAIR Whale Options MAIR Profit Sankey MAIR News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 47/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MAIR — Madison Air Solutions Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 47/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $23.26 (+0.43% 1D, market capitalization $11.62B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 13.6%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 13.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.21%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (13/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 0.93x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.71, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.85x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR) is a NYSE-listed issuer. It operates in the Industrials sector and the Pollution Control Equipment industry..3B. —: product lines, customer base, and revenue model.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR) reported $3.43B in annual revenue and $0 in GAAP net income. Operating cash flow reached $0 and free cash flow totaled $0, backed by $8.18B in total assets against $3.25B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 47/100): Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 2.21% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $21.96 – $44.50 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 32.8x trailing P/E and 24.7x EV/EBITDA against 13.9% operating margins and a 0.93x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies: — Sector correlations beyond the Pollution Control Equipment classification: — The only second-order transmission channel in the source data is liquidity: per the graph, MAIR's 2.75x net-liquidity elasticity means that tightening in the Fed, TGA, and RRP plumbing would transmit disproportionately to the equity. A prospective investor should watch that channel, along with any deal-related developments referenced in the news feed.

  • Key Question #1: Can MAIR sustain or expand its 13.9% operating margin and 13.6% ROIC against Pollution Control Equipment peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.43B and free cash flow of $0, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $3.25B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MAIR's 27.6x forward P/E multiple to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.93x)?

MAIR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MAIR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MAIR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $23.26?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MAIR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MAIR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $28.26 (+22.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a 13.9% operating margin signal strong operating and balance-sheet quality.

Picked up a starter position in MAIR in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $23.16. The Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a 13.9% operating margin signal strong operating and balance-sheet quality.. Trading inside a $21.96–$44.50 52-week range with 2.21% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Pollution Control Equipment multiples expand this quarter.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — MAIR's 12/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $17.83 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $23.16

A 32.8 trailing P/E paired with a 2.21% FCF yield and a bearish 24/100 Macro Tailwind Score leaves little valuation cushion.

Careful chasing MAIR at $23.16. A 32.8 trailing P/E paired with a 2.21% FCF yield and a bearish 24/100 Macro Tailwind Score leaves little valuation cushion.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 13.9%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $17.83 on multiple compression.

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