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Stock Ratings / Materials / GPRE
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Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$13.79 -2.20% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.71

Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $988.3M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on GPRE Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is GPRE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Green Plains Inc. (NASDAQ: GPRE) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $13.79 (-2.20% 1D, market cap $988.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, GPRE ranks #169 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does GPRE compare to FMC and FTK in the Materials sector?
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Within the Materials sector (Major Chemicals), GPRE carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 72.5%, and ROIC of -5.6%. By comparison, FMC (FMC Corporation) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -30.2%, cap $964.4M) and FTK (Flotek Industries Inc.) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 30.5x, ROIC 17.1%, cap $918.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FTK leads on earnings multiple (30.5x) while FTK leads on capital efficiency (17.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GPRE?
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Per GPRE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001309402), Green Plains Inc. generated $189.0M in revenue (+16.0% YoY), -$121.3M in net income, and $73.7M in free cash flow against $1.58B in total assets and $362.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.71 (-0.59%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 39% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510044
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Cash (8)Whales (7)SEC (10)Macro (8)CEO (11)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.3% Base Target
$21 Bull$13 Base$10 Bear
📬 FREE GPRE RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GPRE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY GPRE SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+11/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 55% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.49 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
52
Grade C-$15.58-8.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
49
Grade D$14.19-4.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
47
Grade D$13.49+2.2% Next Q
Current
44
Grade D$13.79-6.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (52) → D (44)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GPRE Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While GPRE currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($14.70) and Max Pain ($14.48) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $20.63.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GPRE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “GPRE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 44%NO 56%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
4730 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)
0.49>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
7 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE43% OF RANGE
L: $9$13.79H: $20
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 8 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on GPRE

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (40)

-5.6% ROIC with 72.5% gross margin and 7.72% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 0.49 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (43)

18/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 8/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like GPRE
  • ✓Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GPRE)

  • ✓Walkthrough of GPRE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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GPRE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -23.69%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $13.62H $14.10L $13.62C $13.79VOL 1.05M
RES: $15.49SUP: $13.35SMA50: $14.70SMA200: $15.28
$20.21$17.88$15.54$13.20$10.86RES $15.49SUP $13.35$13.792026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GPRE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GPRE Butterfly Map → + Track GPRE →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +16.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GPRE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GPRE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GPRE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GPRE)

Materials Rank #169 of 270 ⚔️ FMC vs GPRE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (GPRE vs. FMC, FTK, ECVT, KRO)

Industry: Major Chemicals (67 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) ranks #169 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #134 by equity capitalization ($988.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FTK leads on earnings valuation at 30.5x trailing P/E, while FTK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.1% ROIC and 25.2% gross margin. FTK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with GPRE at 44/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
GPRE ACTIVE
Green Plains Inc.
D 44/100 — 72.5% -5.6% -2.20% $988.3M Benchmark Subject
FMC
FMC Corporation
E 30/100 — 37.0% -30.2% +4.84% $964.4M /fmc-vs-gpre →
FTK
Flotek Industries Inc.
C- 61/100 30.5x 25.2% 17.1% -7.42% $918.2M /ftk-vs-gpre →
ECVT
Ecovyst Inc.
D 48/100 — 21.8% 6.4% -0.69% $1.11B /ecvt-vs-gpre →
KRO
Kronos Worldwide Inc
D- 38/100 — 11.5% -2.3% +1.07% $863.2M /kro-vs-gpre →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001309402 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) reported GAAP revenue of $189.0M (+16.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $163.0M , and +38.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$121.3M, operating cash flow of $110.9M, and free cash flow of $73.7M (+158.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, GPRE closed FY2025 with $1.58B in total assets against $362.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.49, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $189.0M -$121.3M $110.9M $73.7M $1.58B $362.0M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $163.0M -$82.5M -$30.0M -$125.0M $1.78B $432.5M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $136.3M -$93.4M $56.3M $56.3M — —

3. GPRE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GPRE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Green Plains Inc. (NASDAQ: GPRE) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $13.79 (-2.20% 1D, market cap $988.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, GPRE ranks #169 in composite RQD confidence.

How does GPRE compare to FMC and FTK in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Major Chemicals), GPRE carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 72.5%, and ROIC of -5.6%. By comparison, FMC (FMC Corporation) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -30.2%, cap $964.4M) and FTK (Flotek Industries Inc.) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 30.5x, ROIC 17.1%, cap $918.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FTK leads on earnings multiple (30.5x) while FTK leads on capital efficiency (17.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GPRE?

Per GPRE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001309402), Green Plains Inc. generated $189.0M in revenue (+16.0% YoY), -$121.3M in net income, and $73.7M in free cash flow against $1.58B in total assets and $362.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is GPRE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GPRE last traded at $13.79 (-2.20% on volume of 1,299,302 shares), positioning the stock -6.19% below its 50-day simple moving average ($14.70) and -9.75% below its 200-day simple moving average ($15.28). Across its 52-week range of $9.29 to $19.65, GPRE sits at the 43.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.5% ($12.62 to $14.96).

Direct Sub-Reports: GPRE RQD Cockpit GPRE 12M Forecast GPRE Earnings & Move GPRE Dividends & DRIP GPRE Insiders & 13F GPRE Whale Options GPRE Profit Sankey GPRE News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 44/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

GPRE — Green Plains Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 44/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $13.79 (-2.20% 1D, market capitalization $988.3M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -5.6%, gross margin of 72.5%, operating margin of -35.6%, and free cash flow yield of 7.72%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (11/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.49, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.47x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Green Plains Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Materials sector, Major Chemicals industry,. Per the news wire, the company is associated with ethanol demand and clean fuel tax credit monetization. Revenue was reported at $189.0M for FY 2025 .

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) reported $189.0M in annual revenue (up from $163.0M in FY2024, +16.0% YoY) and -$121.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($136.3M revenue, -$93.4M net income) through FY2025, GPRE scaled operating cash flow to $110.9M and free cash flow to $73.7M, backed by $1.58B in total assets against $362.0M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 44/100): Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 7.72% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $9.29 – $19.65 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh current valuation against -35.6% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies are therefore — Sector correlations and second-order bottlenecks cannot be mapped from the provided graph. An investor should note that the sector classification (Materials / Major Chemicals) alone does not establish any specific supplier or customer linkage in the source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can GPRE sustain or expand its -35.6% operating margin and -5.6% ROIC against Major Chemicals peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $189.0M and free cash flow of $73.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $362.0M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is GPRE's equity valuation to Materials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

GPRE Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to GPRE Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

GPRE Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $13.79?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON GPRE 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on GPRE:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $17.91 (+27.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Positive free cash flow of $73.7M in FY 2025 and a planned monetization of up to $325M in clean fuel tax credits could support cash gen

Positive free cash flow of $73.7M in FY 2025 and a planned monetization of up to $325M in clean fuel tax credits could support cash generation despite operating losses.. When you look under the hood at GPRE, Fundamental Cash Engine is 8/20 with 72.5% gross margins and -5.6% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (7/20) has been quietly accumulating below $19.65. My 12M target is $17.91.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@BearTrap_Alert Shorting a 7/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $14.10 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Materials.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $10.57 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $14.10

A negative ROIC of -5.6%, an Altman Z-Score of 0.49, and a 5/20 whale-flow pillar point to weak returns, distress-range balance sheet r

Careful chasing GPRE at $14.10. A negative ROIC of -5.6%, an Altman Z-Score of 0.49, and a 5/20 whale-flow pillar point to weak returns, distress-range balance sheet risk, and limited institutional support.. Gross margin is 72.5%, but operating margin is -35.6%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $10.57 on multiple compression.

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