Should I buy, hold, or sell ASLE stock right now?

AerSale Corporation (ASLE) currently earns a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell — SELL) with 30/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 26x P/E (2% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is ASLE's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ASLE's 12-month base price target is $4.25 (range $3.31 to $8.33), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ASLE

HDSN (30) VIRC (42) ADSE (48) WBX (49) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

AerSale Corporation (ASLE) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$4.86 +0.62% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.86

AerSale Corporation (ASLE) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 30/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $230.5M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ASLE Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ASLE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, AerSale Corporation (NASDAQ: ASLE) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 30/100 at a spot price of $4.86 (+0.62% 1D, market cap $230.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ASLE ranks #875 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ASLE compare to HDSN and VIRC in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Industrial Specialties), ASLE carries a Roarable E (30/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 26.1x, gross margin of 31.5%, and ROIC of 2.3%. By comparison, HDSN (Hudson Technologies Inc.) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E 11.2x, ROIC 7.2%, cap $181.4M) and VIRC (Virco Manufacturing Corporation) posts a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E 38.2x, ROIC 3.0%, cap $97.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, HDSN leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while HDSN leads on capital efficiency (7.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASLE?

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Per ASLE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001754170), AerSale Corporation generated $335.3M in revenue (-2.8% YoY), $8.6M in net income, and -$29.1M in free cash flow against $640.5M in total assets and $111.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.86 (-0.08%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (30/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-12.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ASLE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (30/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ASLE SCORES 30/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (40% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.92 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+5/20 pts (17% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.2% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 4.7% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$4.77-1.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$4.68+0.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$4.72+3% Next Q

Current

Grade E$4.86-9.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (22) → E (30)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ASLE Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ASLE currently carries a cautious 30/100 (E) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.16) and Max Pain ($5.10) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $8.33.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ASLE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ASLE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 30%NO 70%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

47.730 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDWATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)

1.92>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

5 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE9% OF RANGE

L: $5$4.86H: $8

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 3 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 10 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 17 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on ASLE

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (15)

2.3% ROIC with 31.5% gross margin and -12.98% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (60)

Altman-Z 1.92 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (25)

10/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 5/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ASLE

✓Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ASLE)

✓Walkthrough of ASLE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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ASLE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -28.42%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-03O $4.69H $4.86L $4.69C $4.86VOL 467.4K

RES: $5.66SUP: $4.41SMA50: $5.16SMA200: $6.23

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ASLE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ASLE Butterfly Map → + Track ASLE →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

19.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -2.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ASLE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ASLE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ASLE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ASLE)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #875 of 1009 ⚔️ HDSN vs ASLE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ASLE vs. HDSN, VIRC, ADSE, WBX)

Industry: Industrial Specialties (55 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, AerSale Corporation (ASLE) ranks #875 by composite RQD confidence (30/100, grade E) and #673 by equity capitalization ($230.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HDSN leads on earnings valuation at 11.2x trailing P/E, while HDSN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.2% ROIC and 25.2% gross margin. WBX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 49/100 (D) compared with ASLE at 30/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ASLE ACTIVE AerSale Corporation	E	30/100	26.1x	31.5%	2.3%	+0.62%	$230.5M	Benchmark Subject
HDSN Hudson Technologies Inc.	E	30/100	11.2x	25.2%	7.2%	-1.86%	$181.4M	/hdsn-vs-asle →
VIRC Virco Manufacturing Corporation	D-	42/100	38.2x	40.7%	3.0%	+0.16%	$97.7M	/virc-vs-asle →
ADSE ADS-TEC ENERGY PLC	D	48/100	—	—	—	-10.38%	$738.5M	/adse-vs-asle →
WBX Wallbox N.V. (Class A)	D	49/100	—	—	—	-2.91%	$65.7M	/wbx-vs-asle →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001754170 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), AerSale Corporation (ASLE) reported GAAP revenue of $335.3M (-2.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $345.1M , and +0.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $8.6M, operating cash flow of -$23.0M, and free cash flow of -$29.1M (-912.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, ASLE closed FY2025 with $640.5M in total assets against $111.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.92, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$335.3M	$8.6M	-$23.0M	-$29.1M	$640.5M	$111.3M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$345.1M	$5.9M	$11.2M	-$2.9M	$604.7M	$40.4M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$334.5M	-$5.6M	-$174.2M	-$174.2M	—	—

3. ASLE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ASLE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ASLE compare to HDSN and VIRC in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASLE?

Where is ASLE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ASLE last traded at $4.86 (+0.62% on volume of 480,924 shares), positioning the stock -5.81% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.16) and -21.99% below its 200-day simple moving average ($6.23). Across its 52-week range of $4.54 to $7.93, ASLE sits at the 9.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.2% ($4.51 to $5.21).

Direct Sub-Reports: ASLE RQD Cockpit ASLE 12M Forecast ASLE Earnings & Move ASLE Dividends & DRIP ASLE Insiders & 13F ASLE Whale Options ASLE Profit Sankey ASLE News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 30/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ASLE — AerSale Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

AerSale Corporation (ASLE) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 30/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $4.86 (+0.62% 1D, market capitalization $230.5M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (3/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 2.3%, gross margin of 31.5%, operating margin of 4.7%, and free cash flow yield of -12.98%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.92, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.26x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

AerSale Corporation (ASLE) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under Consumer Discretionary, within the Industrial Specialties industry..2B. Per the market data, gross margin is 31.5%, operating margin is 4.7%, and net margin is 2.6%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), AerSale Corporation (ASLE) reported $335.3M in annual revenue (up from $345.1M in FY2024, -2.8% YoY) and $8.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($334.5M revenue, -$5.6M net income) through FY2025, ASLE scaled operating cash flow to -$23.0M and free cash flow to -$29.1M, backed by $640.5M in total assets against $111.3M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 30/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -12.98% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 3/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $4.54 – $7.93 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 26.1x trailing P/E and 15.8x EV/EBITDA against 4.7% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream suppliers, downstream customers, and sector correlation pathways are — A prospective investor should therefore treat second-order ripple effects as unmapped. The one structural point the data does support is that the company's operating margin (4.7%) is thin relative to its gross margin (31.5%), so cost pressure or revenue softness in any dependency would flow quickly into operating results.

Key Question #1: Can ASLE sustain or expand its 4.7% operating margin and 2.3% ROIC against Industrial Specialties peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $335.3M and free cash flow of -$29.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $111.3M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is ASLE's 24.3x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ASLE Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for AerSale Corporation (ASLE) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ASLE Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 22h ago

AerSale® Announces Date for Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release Conference Call

Yahoo Finance report covering AerSale Corporation (ASLE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

AerSale Corporation Estimates – NASDAQ:ASLE

TradingView report covering AerSale Corporation (ASLE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

AerSale Corporation (NASDAQ:ASLE) Stock Has Average Price Target of $6.83 According to Analysts

MarketBeat report covering AerSale Corporation (ASLE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE www.marketscreener.com • 1d ago

B. Riley Adjusts Price Target on AerSale to $6 From $7.50, Keeps Neutral Rating

www.marketscreener.com report covering AerSale Corporation (ASLE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Traders Daily • 1d ago

(ASLE) as a Liquidity Pulse for Institutional Tactics

Stock Traders Daily report covering AerSale Corporation (ASLE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

AerSale Corporation (NASDAQ:ASLE) Stock Has Consensus Target Price of $6.33

MarketBeat report covering AerSale Corporation (ASLE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

ASLE Q3'26 Earnings: revenue estimate is 91.22M USD

TradingView report covering AerSale Corporation (ASLE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE https://www.dars.gov.et/ • 1d ago

AerSale Corporation (ASLE) Ticks Higher to $4.69 as Stock Holds Above Key Support - News Sentiment

https://www.dars.gov.et/ report covering AerSale Corporation (ASLE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ASLE Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $4.86?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ASLE 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $6.38 (+32.1%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Balance sheet holds up with Altman Z of 1.92, Piotroski F of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.26, and operating income rose from -$10.8M in FY

Long ASLE at $4.83 targeting $6.38. Balance sheet holds up with Altman Z of 1.92, Piotroski F of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.26, and operating income rose from -$10.8M in FY 2023 to $15.8M in FY 2025.. Institutional whale score is 5/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $4.54 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@SkepticalCFA Fair point on 26.1x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Industrial Specialties. If gross margin (31.5%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.96 (-18.0%)

Spot @ $4.83

Free cash flow was negative in every reported period, with an FCF yield of -12.98% and ROIC of 2.3%, while debt rose to $111.3M in FY 2

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short ASLE above $4.83. Free cash flow was negative in every reported period, with an FCF yield of -12.98% and ROIC of 2.3%, while debt rose to $111.3M in FY 2025.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (3/20) and FCF yield (-12.98%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $7.93.