Should I buy, hold, or sell ARES stock right now?

Ares Management Corporation (ARES) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold — HOLD) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (5% return on capital), mixed timing at 99x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is ARES's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ARES's 12-month base price target is $137.75 (range $107.45 to $190.25), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Financials / ARES

AMP (62) APO (58) TROW (70) KKR (35) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Ares Management Corporation (ARES) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$132.96 +3.75% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $133.60

Ares Management Corporation (ARES) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $42.33B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ARES Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ARES stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Ares Management Corporation (NYSE: ARES) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $132.96 (+3.75% 1D, market cap $42.33B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ARES ranks #189 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ARES compare to AMP and APO in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Investment Managers), ARES carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 98.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.5%. By comparison, AMP (Ameriprise Financial Inc.) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 12.6x, ROIC 5.6%, cap $44.12B) and APO (Apollo Global Management Inc.) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 20.6x, ROIC 2.3%, cap $68.41B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TROW leads on earnings multiple (10.9x) while TROW leads on capital efficiency (20.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARES?

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Per ARES's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001176948), Ares Management Corporation generated $5.60B in revenue (+44.2% YoY), $426.1M in net income, and $3.01B in free cash flow against $28.63B in total assets and $8.97B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 99x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $133.60 (+0.48%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 53.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARES)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ARES SCORES 66/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 53.8% FCF Margin ($3.01B FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (63.2) create a -9 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$112.49+4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$117.01+5.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$123.82+7.4% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$132.96+1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (58) → C+ (66)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ARES Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, ARES faces multiple-compression risk if 98.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 99x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($125.12) or 200D SMA ($124.15) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($137.75) toward Bear Floor ($107.45).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARES• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ARES Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 66%NO 34%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

63.230 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

7 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE44% OF RANGE

L: $96$132.96H: $181

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 14 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on ARES

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (70)

4.5% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 7.16% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (75)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (62)

26/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 11/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ARES

✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Priced at 99x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ARES Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ARES // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +10.82%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-03O $127.5H $133.0L $127.5C $133.0VOL 3.19M

RES: $161.1SUP: $108.6SMA50: $125.1SMA200: $124.2

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARES Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ARES Butterfly Map → + Track ARES →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +44.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARES today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARES. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARES today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARES)

Financials Rank #189 of 1096 ⚔️ AMP vs ARES Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ARES vs. AMP, APO, TROW, KKR)

Industry: Investment Managers (79 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ares Management Corporation (ARES) ranks #189 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #72 by equity capitalization ($42.33B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TROW leads on earnings valuation at 10.9x trailing P/E, while TROW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 20.5% ROIC and — gross margin. TROW currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with ARES at 66/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ARES ACTIVE Ares Management Corporation	C+	66/100	98.8x	—	4.5%	+3.75%	$42.33B	Benchmark Subject
AMP Ameriprise Financial Inc.	C	62/100	12.6x	—	5.6%	+2.75%	$44.12B	/amp-vs-ares →
APO Apollo Global Management Inc.	D+	58/100	20.6x	—	2.3%	+3.13%	$68.41B	/apo-vs-ares →
TROW T. Rowe Price Group Inc.	B-	70/100	10.9x	—	20.5%	+1.88%	$22.16B	/trow-vs-ares →
KKR KKR & Co. Inc.	D-	35/100	36.3x	—	1.9%	+3.84%	$84.73B	/kkr-vs-ares →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001176948

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ares Management Corporation (ARES) reported GAAP revenue of $5.60B (+44.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.88B , and +54.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $426.1M, operating cash flow of $3.27B, and free cash flow of $3.01B (+15.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARES closed FY2025 with $28.63B in total assets against $8.97B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$5.60B	$426.1M	$3.27B	$3.01B	$28.63B	$8.97B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$3.88B	$441.0M	$2.79B	$2.62B	$24.88B	$7.87B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$3.63B	$474.3M	-$233.3M	-$396.7M	$23.16B	$5.42B

3. ARES Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARES stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ARES compare to AMP and APO in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARES?

Where is ARES trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARES last traded at $132.96 (+3.75% on volume of 3,664,188 shares), positioning the stock +6.27% above its 50-day simple moving average ($125.12) and +7.10% above its 200-day simple moving average ($124.15). Across its 52-week range of $95.80 to $181.19, ARES sits at the 43.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.7% ($124.05 to $141.87).

Direct Sub-Reports: ARES RQD Cockpit ARES 12M Forecast ARES Earnings & Move ARES Dividends & DRIP ARES Insiders & 13F ARES Whale Options ARES Profit Sankey ARES News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 66/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ARES — Ares Management Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Ares Management Corporation (ARES) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 66/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $132.96 (+3.75% 1D, market capitalization $42.33B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 4.5%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 9.3%, and free cash flow yield of 7.16%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (14/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 0.87x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Ares Management Corporation (ARES) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Investment Managers industry. It is a publicly traded US company with a market capitalization of $42.1B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Ares Management Corporation (ARES) reported $5.60B in annual revenue (up from $3.88B in FY2024, +44.2% YoY) and $426.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($3.63B revenue, $474.3M net income) through FY2025, ARES scaled operating cash flow to $3.27B and free cash flow to $3.01B, backed by $28.63B in total assets against $8.97B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 66/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of 7.16% and institutional whale pillar of 14/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 14/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $95.80 – $181.19 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Priced at 99x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Investors must weigh 98.8x trailing P/E and 64.1x EV/EBITDA against 9.3% operating margins and a 0.87x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Investment Managers (Financials), ARES carries a macro regime beta of 0.87 and gross margin of —.

Key Question #1: Can ARES sustain or expand its 9.3% operating margin and 4.5% ROIC against Investment Managers peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $5.60B and free cash flow of $3.01B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $8.97B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is ARES's 83.0x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.87x)?

ARES Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ares Management Corporation (ARES) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ARES Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 21h ago

3 Reasons We’re Fans of Ares (ARES)

Yahoo Finance report covering Ares Management Corporation (ARES) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Ares Management Corporation 2026 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NYSE:ARES) 2026-11-02

Seeking Alpha report covering Ares Management Corporation (ARES) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Ares Management Q3 Earnings on the Deck: What's in Store for the Stock?

TradingView report covering Ares Management Corporation (ARES) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE marketscreener.com • 1d ago

Ares Management Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend on Class A and Non-Voting Common Stock, Payable on December 31, 2026

marketscreener.com report covering Ares Management Corporation (ARES) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE PR Newswire • 1d ago

ARES MANAGEMENT CORPORATION REPORTS THIRD QUARTER 2026 RESULTS

PR Newswire report covering Ares Management Corporation (ARES) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

What Ares Management (ARES) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call

Yahoo Finance report covering Ares Management Corporation (ARES) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Overbrook Management Corp Sells 20,507 Shares of Ares Management Corporation $ARES

MarketBeat report covering Ares Management Corporation (ARES) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST TradingView • 1d ago

Ares Management Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, AUM Rises Y/Y

TradingView report covering Ares Management Corporation (ARES) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ARES Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $132.96?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ARES 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $152.50 (+19.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Strongest forensic balance sheet pillar (15/20, Piotroski 7/9) with a 7.16% FCF yield and beta of 0.87 offering relatively low market s

Don't sleep on ARES's setup in Financials. Strongest forensic balance sheet pillar (15/20, Piotroski 7/9) with a 7.16% FCF yield and beta of 0.87 offering relatively low market sensitivity.. Beta of 0.87 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (66/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — ARES's 15/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $105.08 (-18.0%)

Spot @ $128.15

Trailing P/E of 98.8 and EV/EBITDA of 64.1 sit against ROIC of 4.5% and net income that declined from $474.3M (FY 2023) to $426.1M (FY

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on ARES: Trailing P/E of 98.8 and EV/EBITDA of 64.1 sit against ROIC of 4.5% and net income that declined from $474.3M (FY 2023) to $426.1M (FY 2025).. At 98.8x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Investment Managers triggers a 12-15% air pocket.