Should I buy, hold, or sell APO stock right now?

Apollo Global Management Inc. (APO) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell — SELL) with 58/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 21x P/E (2% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is APO's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

APO's 12-month base price target is $119.46 (range $93.18 to $160.95), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Financials / APO

KKR (35) BX (65) AMP (62) ARES (66) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Apollo Global Management Inc. (APO) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$119.46 +3.13% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $119.91

Apollo Global Management Inc. (APO) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $68.41B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on APO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is APO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Apollo Global Management Inc. (NYSE: APO) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $119.46 (+3.13% 1D, market cap $68.41B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, APO ranks #443 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does APO compare to KKR and BX in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Investment Managers), APO carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 20.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 2.3%. By comparison, KKR (KKR & Co. Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E 36.3x, ROIC 1.9%, cap $84.73B) and BX (Blackstone Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 30.0x, ROIC 17.2%, cap $88.96B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AMP leads on earnings multiple (12.6x) while BX leads on capital efficiency (17.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for APO?

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Per APO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001858681), Apollo Global Management Inc. generated $32.05B in revenue (+22.7% YoY), $3.40B in net income, and $5.80B in free cash flow against $460.95B in total assets and $188.30B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $119.90 (+0.37%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 18.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for APO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY APO SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (47.8) create a -13 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$113.39-1.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$111.69+1.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$113.45+5.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$119.46+0% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (50) → D+ (58)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the APO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, APO faces multiple-compression risk if 20.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($121.34) or 200D SMA ($123.04) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($119.46) toward Bear Floor ($93.18).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $APO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “APO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 58%NO 42%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

47.830 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

7 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE37% OF RANGE

L: $100$119.46H: $153

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: CRQD 13 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 22 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on APO

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (65)

2.3% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 8.29% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (75)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (50)

23/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 7/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like APO

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring APO)

✓Walkthrough of APO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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APO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -7.53%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-03O $118.6H $119.5L $115.8C $119.5VOL 5.28M

RES: $148.1SUP: $109.0SMA50: $121.3SMA200: $123.0

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

APO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 APO Butterfly Map → + Track APO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

14.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +22.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on APO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for APO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for APO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (APO)

Financials Rank #443 of 1097 ⚔️ KKR vs APO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (APO vs. KKR, BX, AMP, ARES)

Industry: Investment Managers (79 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Apollo Global Management Inc. (APO) ranks #443 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #53 by equity capitalization ($68.41B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AMP leads on earnings valuation at 12.6x trailing P/E, while BX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.2% ROIC and — gross margin. ARES currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with APO at 58/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
APO ACTIVE Apollo Global Management Inc.	D+	58/100	20.6x	—	2.3%	+3.13%	$68.41B	Benchmark Subject
KKR KKR & Co. Inc.	D-	35/100	36.3x	—	1.9%	+3.84%	$84.73B	/kkr-vs-apo →
BX Blackstone Inc.	C	65/100	30.0x	—	17.2%	+1.38%	$88.96B	/bx-vs-apo →
AMP Ameriprise Financial Inc.	C	62/100	12.6x	—	5.6%	+2.75%	$44.12B	/amp-vs-apo →
ARES Ares Management Corporation	C+	66/100	98.8x	—	4.5%	+3.75%	$42.33B	/ares-vs-apo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001858681 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Apollo Global Management Inc. (APO) reported GAAP revenue of $32.05B (+22.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $26.11B , and -1.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $3.40B, operating cash flow of $7.25B, and free cash flow of $5.80B (+179.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, APO closed FY2025 with $460.95B in total assets against $188.30B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$32.05B	$3.40B	$7.25B	$5.80B	$460.95B	$188.30B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$26.11B	$4.48B	$3.25B	$2.08B	$377.89B	$156.11B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$32.64B	$5.00B	$6.32B	$4.85B	$39.17B	$9.17B

3. APO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is APO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does APO compare to KKR and BX in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for APO?

Where is APO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

APO last traded at $119.46 (+3.13% on volume of 5,230,399 shares), positioning the stock -1.55% below its 50-day simple moving average ($121.34) and -2.91% below its 200-day simple moving average ($123.04). Across its 52-week range of $99.56 to $153.29, APO sits at the 37.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.0% ($111.10 to $127.82).

Direct Sub-Reports: APO RQD Cockpit APO 12M Forecast APO Earnings & Move APO Dividends & DRIP APO Insiders & 13F APO Whale Options APO Profit Sankey APO News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 58/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

APO — Apollo Global Management Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Apollo Global Management Inc. (APO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 58/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $119.46 (+3.13% 1D, market capitalization $68.41B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 2.3%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 12.9%, and free cash flow yield of 8.29%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (14/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 0.98x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Apollo Global Management Inc. (APO) is a NYSE-listed operating company in the Investment Managers industry (Financials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $68.41B. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 12.9%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 2.3% (free cash flow yield of 8.29%). Within the Investment Managers peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Apollo Global Management Inc. (APO) reported $32.05B in annual revenue (up from $26.11B in FY2024, +22.7% YoY) and $3.40B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($32.64B revenue, $5.00B net income) through FY2025, APO scaled operating cash flow to $7.25B and free cash flow to $5.80B, backed by $460.95B in total assets against $188.30B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 58/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $99.56 – $153.29 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 20.6x trailing P/E and 35.5x EV/EBITDA against 12.9% operating margins and a 0.98x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are — The only sector-level context is the Financials / Investment Managers classification and the Beta of 0.98 in the market data, which indicates a near-market-level sensitivity to broad price movements.

Key Question #1: Can APO sustain or expand its 12.9% operating margin and 2.3% ROIC against Investment Managers peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $32.05B and free cash flow of $5.80B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $188.30B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is APO's 17.3x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.98x)?

APO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Apollo Global Management Inc. (APO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to APO Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 23h ago

Apollo (APO) Stock Looks Below Fair Value As Deal Questions Linger

Yahoo Finance report covering Apollo Global Management Inc. (APO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE www.debelegger.nl • 1d ago

Apollo Global Management LLC (APO) Stock Price, Chart & Analysis

www.debelegger.nl report covering Apollo Global Management Inc. (APO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST GuruFocus • 1d ago

A Look at Apollo Global Management Inc (APO) After 4.5% Gain -- GF Value $112.59 vs Price $118.56

GuruFocus report covering Apollo Global Management Inc. (APO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Here's What to Expect From Apollo Global Management's Next Earnings Report

Yahoo Finance report covering Apollo Global Management Inc. (APO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST 24/7 Wall St. • 1d ago

Apollo Global Management Surges 4.4% After Hours to $114.79

24/7 Wall St. report covering Apollo Global Management Inc. (APO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST TradingView • 1d ago

Apollo Deepens Middle East Ties: Will Mubadala Deal Drive Growth?

TradingView report covering Apollo Global Management Inc. (APO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Evercore Issues Positive Forecast for Apollo Global Management (NYSE:APO) Stock Price

MarketBeat report covering Apollo Global Management Inc. (APO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Globe and Mail • 1d ago

Analysts Have Conflicting Sentiments on These Financial Companies: Robinhood (HOOD), Apollo Global Management (APO) and Arch Capital Group (ACGL)

The Globe and Mail report covering Apollo Global Management Inc. (APO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

APO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $119.46?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON APO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $147.12 (+27.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Strong cash engine signals (8.29% FCF yield, Piotroski F 7/9) and a forward P/E of 17.3 below the trailing 20.6 point to earnings impro

Strong cash engine signals (8.29% FCF yield, Piotroski F 7/9) and a forward P/E of 17.3 below the trailing 20.6 point to earnings improvement.. When you look under the hood at APO, Fundamental Cash Engine is 13/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 2.3% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (9/20) has been quietly accumulating below $153.29. My 12M target is $147.12.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Fair point on 20.6x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Investment Managers. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $99.62 (-14.0%)

Spot @ $115.84

Low ROIC of 2.3%, elevated EV/EBITDA of 35.5, and debt rising from $9.17B to $188.30B weigh on the investment case.

Low ROIC of 2.3%, elevated EV/EBITDA of 35.5, and debt rising from $9.17B to $188.30B weigh on the investment case.. Look at the math on APO: paying 20.6x trailing P/E for 2.3% ROIC and 12.9% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Investment Managers demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $101.94 before getting long.