ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

TRV // The Travelers Companies Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000086312 ↗
Financials • Property-Casualty Insurers
$396.22 ▼ -2.05 (-0.51%)
MKT CAP: $81.62B • VOL: 1.41M
TRV // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 77/100 [B+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B+
RQD CONFIDENCE
77 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
14 / 20
SOLID
FCF +20.4% vs NI +25.8% • ROIC-WACC +1.4% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
18 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 93% • VS 200D +20.3% • RSI 63.6
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +10.3% • P/E 12.1x • F-SCORE 8/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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TRV // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +31.40%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $394.0H $398.3L $394.0C $396.2VOL 1.12M
RES: $409.1SUP: $349.8SMA50: $375.8SMA200: $331.1
$416.5$380.7$344.8$309.0$273.1RES $409.1SUP $349.8$396.22026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
TRV // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 48/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

The Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 9.7% return on invested capital within Financials (Property-Casualty Insurers), balanced against a 11.6x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 15.7% operating margin and 9.7% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 9.7% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +5.2% paired with 10.30% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +5.2% // FCF YLD: 10.30%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 13.0x trailing P/E (12.1x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 13.0x // EV/EBITDA: 11.6x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $396.22 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Property-Casualty Insurers require continuous execution to defend 12.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 12.9% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 12.1x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.88).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 13.0x
FORWARD P/E 12.1x
EV / EBITDA 11.6x
FCF YIELD 10.30%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 15.7%
NET MARGIN 12.9%
ROIC % 9.7%
REV GROWTH YOY +5.2%
DILUTED EPS TTM $30.68
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.20%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 63.6
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.88
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // TRVPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $362.55
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>