ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

TM // Toyota Motor Corporation

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001094517 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Auto Manufacturing
$195.71 ▼ -0.92 (-0.47%)
MKT CAP: $256.29B • VOL: 355.9K
TM // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 57/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
57 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF +0% vs NI +0% • ROIC-WACC +1.1% • Z 3.74
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 37% • VS 200D -0.9% • RSI 58.1
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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TM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.94%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE
2026-11-02O $194.9H $196.6L $194.9C $195.7VOL 193.8K
RES: $198.9SUP: $185.6SMA50: $192.2SMA200: $198.4
$215.8$202.4$188.9$175.4$161.9RES $198.9SUP $185.6$195.72026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
TM // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 46/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 9.9% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Auto Manufacturing), balanced against a 21.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 13.9% operating margin and 9.9% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 9.9% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of 0.0% paired with 2.21% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: 0.0% // FCF YLD: 2.21%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.74 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.74 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 32.8x trailing P/E (30.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 32.8x // EV/EBITDA: 21.0x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $195.71 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Auto Manufacturing require continuous execution to defend 10.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 10.9% // D/E: 0.39x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 30.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.05).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 32.8x
FORWARD P/E 30.5x
EV / EBITDA 21.0x
FCF YIELD 2.21%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 13.9%
NET MARGIN 10.9%
ROIC % 9.9%
REV GROWTH YOY 0.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM $5.99
DEBT / EQUITY 0.39x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 58.1
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.05
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // TMPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $179.08
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>