ROARABLE // PRO
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STX // Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (Ireland)

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001137789 ↗
Technology • Electronic Components
$644.58 ▼ -55.89 (-7.98%)
MKT CAP: $160.21B • VOL: 5.79M
STX // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 66/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
66 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF -100% vs NI -100% • ROIC-WACC +52% • Z 19.26
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 51% • VS 200D +0.6% • RSI 45.9
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +4% • P/E 18.2x • F-SCORE 8/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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STX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -12.72%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $698.0H $700.5L $644.6C $644.6VOL 5.35M
RES: $897.8SUP: $596.1SMA50: $794.2SMA200: $696.4
$1,203.5$961.1$718.6$476.1$233.6RES $897.8SUP $596.1$644.62026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
STX // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 88/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (Ireland) (STX) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 58.3% return on invested capital within Technology (Electronic Components), balanced against a 14.6x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 21.1% operating margin and 58.3% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 58.3% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +180.0% paired with 3.99% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +180.0% // FCF YLD: 3.99%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 19.26 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 19.26 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 21.7x trailing P/E (18.2x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 21.7x // EV/EBITDA: 14.6x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $644.58 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Electronic Components require continuous execution to defend 16.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 16.4% // D/E: 7.63x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 18.2x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.33).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 21.7x
FORWARD P/E 18.2x
EV / EBITDA 14.6x
FCF YIELD 3.99%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 21.1%
NET MARGIN 16.4%
ROIC % 58.3%
REV GROWTH YOY +180.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM $32.25
DEBT / EQUITY 7.63x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 45.9
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.33
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // STXPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $589.81
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>