ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

PGR // Progressive Corporation

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000080661 ↗
Financials • Property-Casualty Insurers
$231.28 ▲ +1.10 (+0.48%)
MKT CAP: $133.82B • VOL: 1.94M
PGR // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 83/100 [A-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE A-
RQD CONFIDENCE
83 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Superior Risk/Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF +15.9% vs NI +33.3% • ROIC-WACC +10.6% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
17 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 82% • VS 200D +9.9% • RSI 62.8
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] OUTLIER
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
16 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=-0.06 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] OUTLIER
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
SIGNAL

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PGR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +16.08%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $225.7H $231.3L $225.7C $231.3VOL 1.84M
RES: $235.8SUP: $200.6SMA50: $218.0SMA200: $209.5
$242.9$228.3$213.8$199.2$184.7RES $235.8SUP $200.6$231.32026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PGR // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 61/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Progressive Corporation (PGR) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 20.0% return on invested capital within Financials (Property-Casualty Insurers), balanced against a 11.2x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 15.7% operating margin and 20.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 20.0% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +16.3% paired with 12.85% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +16.3% // FCF YLD: 12.85%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 11.8x trailing P/E (9.9x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 11.8x // EV/EBITDA: 11.2x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $231.28 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Property-Casualty Insurers require continuous execution to defend 12.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 12.9% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 9.9x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.15).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 11.8x
FORWARD P/E 9.9x
EV / EBITDA 11.2x
FCF YIELD 12.85%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 15.7%
NET MARGIN 12.9%
ROIC % 20.0%
REV GROWTH YOY +16.3%
DILUTED EPS TTM $19.45
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.15%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 62.8
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.15
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // PGRPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $211.63
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>